NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation R & D Workshop

NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation R & D workshop

June 6, 2003

College Park, Maryland

Executive Summary

A NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation R & D workshop was held on June 6, 2003 in College Park, Maryland. The goals of this meeting were (a) to revise, add to and generally complete the Science and Implementation Plan for NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Development; (b) to establish a time line of specific activities tied to specific individuals / groups. To achieve these objectives, deficiencies and uncertainties of current regional and global models were identified and examined. The path to improved warm season precipitation prediction was discussed

. Suggestions and recommendations to improve the “white paper” were made. The revised white paper is attached as Appendix 3.

1. Objective and summary of the white paper

The objective of the white paper is to develop a strategy for accelerating progress on the fundamental modeling issues pertaining to the NAME science goals of providing improved understanding and prediction of

· Warm season convective processes in complex terrain;

· Intraseasonal variability of the monsoon;

· The response of warm season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns to slowly varying, potentially predictable oceanic and continental surface conditions;

· The life cycle of the North American monsoon system and its variability.

The guiding principals for the white paper are

· To take maximum advantage of NAME enhanced observations, and to provide model-based guidance to the evolving multi-tiered NAME observing program;

· To maintain a multi-scale approach in which local processes are embedded in, and are fully coupled with larger-scale dynamics.

The meeting was organized to reflect the strategic approach given in the white paper:

· Identify the uncertainties and deficiencies of the models;

· Multi-scale model development;

· Multi-tier synthesis and data assimilation;

· Prediction and global scale linkages.

2. Identify the uncertainties and deficiencies of the models

The NAMAP activity provides an opportunity to assess the performance of current models, in particular

· To identify and describe inter-model consistencies and differences;

· To tentatively suggest physical explanations for differences;

· To provide measurement targets for the NAME 2004 field campaign; and

· To examine effects of core monsoon (Tier I) convection differences on the larger-scale (Tier II) circulation.

There were 7 groups participating in NAMAP to simulate or forecast monsoon development in 1990 June-September. While all models are able to produce rainfall over the core monsoon regions, the details differ. The models produce very different rainfall structure, rainfall maximum/minimum, seasonal cycle and diurnal cycle,

It was recommended that the NAME observations be used to address the following large model uncertainties:

· The diurnal cycle (precipitation, low-level circulation);

· The timing of late-day convection and amount of nocturnal rainfall;

· The structure and location of the Gulf of California low-level jet;

· Surface quantities (T, LH, SH fluxes);

3. Multi-scale model development

In the monsoon region, there are many mesoscale convective systems. They move in different directions with different speeds. The boundary layer depths over some regions can exceed 3000 m. Observations point to the complexity and multi-scale nature of the systems involved.

Most models have problems capturing the seasonal evolution of the monsoon and the mesoscale features of rainfall and regional circulation anomalies. These are related to the convection schemes and microphysics, which needs to be improved in the models.

One possibility is to improve parameterizations of convection in current models. Another is to model the convective cloud systems explicitly. This will provide the basic understanding of the dynamical system. However, the spatial scale for multi scale models is about 1km. Therefore, more work and resources are needed to apply this method to seasonal climate forecasts.

Recommendations:

· Multi scale modeling should be tested for the NAME period;

· Data assimilation using a mesoscale mode with 10-20 km resolution is needed to provide large scale circulation for multi scale modeling;

· Model development should focus on land/atmosphere interactions in the presence of complex terrain and ocean-atmosphere interactions.

4. Multi-tier synthesis and data assimilation

During the NAME period, data impact studies will be performed with and without the NAME data for CDAS (T62 resolution), GDAS (T256 resolution) and EDAS by the NCEP. These products provide a benchmark for other assimilation and model forecasts.

The data assimilation products depend on the model and the data assimilation scheme used. For example: the 12-36h precipitation forecasts during the data assimilation cycle for models with different convective schemes show very different rainfall amounts and patterns.

Recommendations:

· Various groups (with different models) are encouraged to perform data assimilation using the NAME data. The model output should be evaluated based on key features of the warm season precipitation regime (diurnal cycle, MCS’s, moisture surges and boundary layer depths);

· This is a good opportunity to test new assimilation methods such as the ensemble Kalman filtering method.

5. Prediction and global scale linkages

Outside the Tier I region, the boundary and surface forcing become very important. Both sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Tropical Pacific and in the North Pacific have influences on the development of monsoon. In addition to the SSTAs, seasonal forecast skill increases when accurate soil moisture is provided at the initial time.

Key elements of the monsoon system (including tropical cyclones) are modulated by intraseasonal oscillations (such as the Madden Julian Oscillation). The inability for models to capture the intraseasonal oscillations has a negative impact on seasonal precipitation forecasts.

Recommendations:

· Realistic soil moisture and temperature information is needed to test the impact of soil conditions on seasonal forecasts;

· Improve simulations of tropical intraseasonal oscillations and their impact on the monsoon.

6. Other issues and follow-ups

1) The NAME modeling and data assimilation groups should work closely with other national and international programs like CEOP, PILPS and the subseasonal prediction program organized by GSFC.

2) Investigators interested in NAME modeling should respond to the OGP/PACS/GAPP call for proposals for the coming summer. This will link the specific issues in the NAME modeling strategic plan to specific groups and activities;

3) Establish performance measures of the NAME modeling activity;

4) Better communication between modeling groups and observational groups;

5) The “white paper” will be inserted in the NAME Science and Implementation Plan, but it should continue to be revised;

6) The NAME modeling and data assimilation activities should be reviewed during the SWG5 meeting in Puerto Vallarta, MX.

Appendix 1: NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Development meeting participant list

Participant List

Jorge Amador Astua

Center for Geophysical Research

University of Costa Rica

2060 San Jose,COSTA RICA

Tel: (506) 2075096 or (506) 2075320

Fax: (506) 2342703

Email:

Phil Arkin

ESSIC, University of Maryland

College Park, Md 20742

Email:

Kristi Arsenault

Goddard Space Flight Center,

NASA, Greenbelt Md

Email :

Julio Bacmeister

DAO

Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA,Greenbelt Md

Email:

E. Hugo Berbery

ESSIC

University of Maryland

College Park, Md 20742

Michael Bosilovich

Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA, Greenbelt Md

Email :

Marco Carrera

Climate Prediction Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md

Email:

Miguel CortezVzquez

Seasonal Forecast Project

National Meteorological Service

Av. Observatorio 192,Col. Observatorio

Mxico D. F. 11860

MEXICO

Tel: (52) 56268660

Fax: (52) 56268695

Email:

Paul A.Dirmeyer

COLA,

4041 Powder Mill Rd.

Calverton, Md, 20705

Tel: 301-595-7000

Email:

C. B. Emmanuel

Associate Director

Joint Office for Science Support

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

P.O. Box 3000 FL4, Rm. 1412

Boulder, CO 803073000

Tel: (1) 3034978693

Fax: (1) 3034978158

Email:

Luis Farfan

Cicese

Ensenada, Mexico

David J. Gochis

RAP

National Center for Atmospheric Research

PO Box 3000FL2,Boulder, CO 803073000

Tel: (1) 3034972809

Email:

Zhichang Guo

COLA

4041 Powder Mill Rd.

Calverton, Md, 20705

Tel: 301-595-7000

Email:

Andrea N. Hahmann

Institute of Atmospheric Physics

PAS Bldg. 81,University of Arizona

Tucson, AZ 85721, USA

Tel: (1) 5206216619

Fax: (1) 5206216833

Email:

Mark Helfand

DAO

Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA,Greenbelt Md

Email:

Wayne Higgins

Climate Prediction Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md

Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7547

Email:

Ming Ji

OGP/NOAA

1100 Wayne Ave.

Silver Spring, Md 20910

Tel: 301-427-2089

Email:

Charles Jones

Institute for Computational Earth System Science (ICESS)

University of California

Santa Barbara, CA 931063060

Email:

Thomas J. Jackson

USDA ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab,104 Bldg. 007 BARCWest

Beltsville, MD 20705

(301) 5048511

Fax (301) 5048931

Donald Johnson

Department of Meteorology

University of Wisconsin

Madison, Wisconsin, 53706

Email:

Richard Johnson

Department of Atmospheric Science

Colorado State University

Fort Collins, CO 80523

USA

Tel: 9704918321

Email:

Henry Juang

EMC

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md

Tel: 301-763-8000

Email:

Masao Kanamitsu

Scripps Institution of Oceanography,

UCSD, La Jolla, Ca

Tel: 6195342099

Email :

H. K. Kim

Climate Prediction Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md

Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7515

Email :

Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

University of Washington

164 Wilcox Hall

P.O. Box 352700

Seattle, WA 98195, USA

Tel: (1) 2065432532

Fax: (1) 2066853836

Email:

Jim Mather

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Richland, WA 99352

(509) 3754533

(509) 3726168 (fax)

Email:

Kenneth Mitchell

EMC

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md

Tel: 301-763-8000

Email:

Kingtse Mo

Climate Prediction Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md

Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7540

Email :

Mitchell W. Moncrieff

Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology

National Center for Atmospheric Research

P.O. Box 3000FL3

Boulder, CO 803073000, USA

Tel: (1) 3034978960

Fax: (1) 3034978181

Email:

S. Moorthi

EMC

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, Md 20746

tel: 301-763-8000

Email:

Hau L. Pan

EMC, NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md

Tel: 301-763-8000

Email:

Michael Patterson

OGP/NOAA

1100 Wayne Ave. Silver Spring, Md 20910

Tel: 301-427-2089

Fax: 301-427-2073

Philip Pegion

DAO,Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA, Greenbelt Md

Email:

Jae Schemm

Climate Prediction Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md

Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7565

Email :

Siegfried Schubert

DAO

Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA, Greenbelt Md

Email:

Wei Shi

Climate Prediction Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md

Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7545

Yucheng Song

Climate Prediction Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, Md 20746

tel: 301-763-8000

Email:

Dave Stensrud

Leader, Models and Assimilation Team

NOAA/National Severe Storm Laboratory

1313 Halley Circle,Norman, OK 73069

USA

Tel: (1) 4053660418

Fax: (1) 4053660472

Email:

Max Suarez

DAO

Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA, Greenbelt Md

Email:

Rongqian Yang

EMC

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md

Tel: 301-763-8000

Email:

Song Yang

Climate Prediction Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md

Tel: 301-763-8000

Email:

Evgeney Yarosh

Climate Prediction Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA

5200 Auth Rd. Camp Springs, Md

Tel: 301-763-8000 Ext 7575

Email:

Chidong Zhang

Meteorology & Physical Oceanography Div.

University of Miami, RSMAS,

4600 Rickenbacker Causeway

Miami, Fl. 33149

Tel 305-361-4042

Email:

Dusanka Zupanski

Jiaya Zhou

NOAA/NWS/Climate Services

1325 East West Hwy, Silver Spring, Md 20910

Email:

Dusanka Zupanski

Colorado State UniversityCIRA

Ft. Collins, CO 80526

USA

Tel: (1) 9704918642

Fax:

Email:

Appendix 2: Agenda

NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Development

June 6, 2003

University of Maryland Inn and Conference Center

Purpose: To revise, add to and generally complete the Science and

Implementation Plan for NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Development.

Friday 6 June 2003

8:00 am Opening Remarks and Expected Outcome (Mo)

8:05 am NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation R&D (Schubert)

8:35 am The North American Monsoon Assessment Project (NAMAP):

What have we learned? (Kim)

9:05 am Summary of NAME 2004: Status and Plans (Higgins)

9:35 am Summary of the Ensenada meeting on the oceanographic

component of NAME (Farfan)

9:45 am Break

10:00 - 11:30 am Working session on Phase 1: Model Development (Moncrieff)

10:00 am Global modeling perspective (Bacmeister)

10:15 am Regional model perspective (Mitchell)

10:30 am Multi scale modeling perspective (Moncrieff)

10:45 am Discussion

11:30 am Lunch

12:30-2:00 pm Working session on Phase 2: Data Assimilation and

Analysis (Stensrud)

12:30 pm Opening remarks (Stensrud)

12:45 pm Global and regional data assimilation at the NCEP

during NAME (Mo)

1:00 pm Challenging scientific issues for NAME in the context of

data assimilation (Zupanski)

1:15 pm Discussion

2:00 pm Break

2:20 pm Summary of NAME Hydrometeorology Working Group plans (Gochis)

2:30-4:00 pm Working session on Phase 3: Predictability and Forecasts

(Schemm)

2:30 pm Seasonal climate predictability over NAME region (Schemm)

2:45 pm Prediction and predictability on intraseasonal time

scales (Schubert)

3:00 pm Statistical Forecast of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (Jones)

3:15 pm Discussion

4:00 pm Conclusions / Assignments

Appendix 3. The NAME “White paper” entitled “NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation: A Strategic Overview” is attached as a separate file “NAME_modeling.doc