Migration Caused by Climate Change
"Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to have to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their territory or abroad."
- International Organization for Migration (IOM)
The UN Migration Agency
Environmental factors have led to migration throughout human history. However, it is expected that this movement will increase drastically as a result of manmade climate change. Three major factors will be involved in migration caused by climate change. These include changing weather patterns, rising sea level, and climate induced conflict.
Changing Weather Patterns:
The number of droughts, storms, and floods has increased threefold over the last 30 years. This has had a devastating effect on the communities affected, more so on vulnerable communities, particularly in the developing world. In 2008, 20 million persons were displaced by extreme weather events, compared to 4.6 million internally displaced by conflict and violence over the same period.
Though large storms draw more attention, gradual changes in the environment tend to have an even greater impact on the movement of people than extreme events. For instance, over the last 30 years, twice as many people have been affected by droughts as by storms (1.6 billion compared with approximately 718 million).[i]
Future forecasts vary from 25 million to 1 billion environmental migrants by 2050, moving either within their countries or across borders, on a permanent or temporary basis, with 200 million being the most widely cited estimate. There are currently an estimated 200 million international migrants worldwide - due to all causes - environment, conflict, economic, etc.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that failure to deal with climate change and its side effects will result in a number of circumstances influencing human migration. Yields for crops will change due to increased temperatures, hurting most farmers around the world and increasing food prices. Left unchecked, carbon emissions will put 177 million people at risk of regular flooding.
According to the International Displacement Monitoring Centre, 21.5 million people per year on average have been displaced by sudden-onset natural disasters since 2008. Many of these people are from areas that are recognized as highly vulnerable to climate change events.[ii]
Monsoon season – more rain – more runoff – possible contamination of potable water sources.
The planet has regions that receive more rainfall and regions that receive little rainfall (arid regions and semi-arid regions). Wet zones are most often found in the tropics and temperate regions. Dry zones are found in the subtropics and polar regions.
Changing weather patterns also means the intensifying of established weather patterns; the wet regions will get wetter, and the dry regions will get drier. Wet regions have gotten wetter, and dry regions have gotten drier both by about 2% over the last 60 years. This process is called amplification of the water cycle. More rain, and consequent outflow from rivers in a region of an ocean means sea water gets diluted and becomes less salty. More evaporation in another region takes away fresh water and leaves salt behind making that region more saline. If we see a 3ºC rise in global temperatures by the end of the century as some models predict, researchers estimate a 24% amplification of the water cycle is possible.[iii]
Record flooding in India and Southeast Asia is happening almost annually. This region normally experiences a monsoon season caused by a shift in winds. The problem comes from the intensification of these annual rains. In 2017, more than 1,200 people have died as a result of the flooding. According to the United Nations, more than 41 million people in the region have been affected by the rains.[iv]
Additionally, the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) states that 90% of disasters are weather-related with the US, China, India, Philippines, and Indonesia the most affected.[v] Continued extreme flooding can lead to forced migrationof large numbers of people.
Converse to flooding, 12 million hectares of land are lost every year to desertification and drought. 167 countries are affected by desertification. In Africa, the Sahara Desert covers one-quarter of the land, covering parts or all of 11 countries. The Sahara advances approximately one-third of a mile (0.6 kilometers) each year. However, through an initiative called the Great Green Wall – 13 countries, partner organizations, and the African Union Commission supported by the EU, FAO, GM-UNCCD are pushing back on the ever-growing desert. The Great Green Wall has transformed from an idea to plant a line of trees that crosses African deserts from east to west to an array of interventions that address challenges faced by the people of the Sahara (arid region) and Sahel (semi-arid region) . The goal of the Great Green Wall initiative is to strengthen the resilience of the region’s natural systems through sound ecosystem management, sustainable development of land resources, protection of rural heritage and improvement of living conditions for local populations.
Sea Level Rise:
“Sea level rise isn’t just happening, it’s getting faster” – Washington Post, June 2017[vi]
Sea level rise is caused by two factors with respect to climate change. Ocean temperatures are warming. Waters warm, causing it to expand, and therefore take up more space in the ocean basin. Temperatures on land are warming, causing ice on land (glaciers, ice caps) to melt, which then fills the ocean basin further. In the past, these two factors were equal in causing sea level rise. However now, ice melt is contributing much more than the thermal expansion. In 1993, melting ice from Greenland contributed 5% to overall sea level rise. In 2014, that percentage jumped to 25%.[vii]
Sea levels have been rising since the 1880s, however, the rate at which they are rising have been increasing since 1993. Sea levels are rising at a rate of about 1/8” (3.4 mm) per year, due to a combination of melting glaciers and ice sheets, and thermal expansion of seawater as it warms.
Rising sea levels puts a large percentage of the global population at risk. Eight of the world’s ten largest cities in the world are along coastlines (Shanghai, Tokyo, Karachi, Lagos, Dhaka, Guangzhou, Istanbul, and Toyko). In the United States, 39% of the population lives near the coast.[viii] In China and Bangladesh, the population in the low-elevation coastal zone grew at twice the rate of the national growth between 1990 and 2000[ix].
Sea level rise will also threaten the existence of the 52 small island nations, as well as low lying coastal countries; “these 52 nations, home to over 62 million people, emit less than one per cent of global greenhouse gases, yet they suffer disproportionately from the climate change that global emissions cause.”[x] Small Island Developing States vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise is compounded due to their relatively small land masses, population concentrations, and high dependence on coastal ecosystems for food, livelihood, security, and lack of protection against extreme events.
Case Study: Bangladesh
Bangladesh is at the top of many climate scientists’ lists as the country most vulnerable to sea level rise. While Bangladesh (and other developing countries), has contributed very little to climate change, it has exacerbated its own situation by pumping out groundwater to the point that their cities are sinking. Bangladesh has seen salt water incursion in its rivers, and an increase in deadly cyclones (hurricanes).
A recent New York Times article looked at the research of former Newcastle University professor of coastal science Dr. John Pethick. “In an analysis of decades of tidal records published in October [2013], Dr. Pethick found that high tides in Bangladesh were rising 10 times faster than the global average. He predicted that seas in Bangladesh could rise as much as 13 feet by 2100, four times the global average. In an area where land is often a thin brown line between sky and river — nearly a quarter of Bangladesh is less than seven feet above sea level — such an increase would have dire consequences, Dr. Pethick said.”[xi]
It is estimated by the Bangladesh government and climate scientists that by 2050, 17% of the country will be inundated with water and 18 million people will be internally displaced.
Learn about efforts in Bangladesh here - http://www.gcca.eu/national-programmes/asia/gcca-bangladesh-climate-change-resilience-fund-bccrf.
Conflict Caused by Climate Change:
“Almost invariably, we discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political shorthand — an ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers. Look to its roots, though, and you discover a more complex dynamic. Amid the diverse social and political causes, the Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change.”
- Former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon
Washington Post in 2007
Humans have fought against one another for thousands of years. This is not a new, nor a novel, concept. However, with climate change, there are two factors that can contribute to greater human conflict. First, the lack of resources due to changing weather patterns, drought, and lack of potable water, can all be contributing factors to conflict. As the planet warms, the incidents of scarcity will increase, and conflict will increase along with it. Second, heat has been scientifically proven to make people inclined to fight. Hotter temperatures will mean more conflict.
While war and conflict are caused by a variety factors – including socio-economics, religion, nationalism, imperialism, territory, greed, etc; many are looking at climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’. This means that in already tense areas, climate change can add fuel to the fire. “Rising global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, climbing sea levels and more extreme weather events will intensify the challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty and conflict,” US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said announcing the US defense department’s 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap.[xii]
Insects can move north due to a warming climate. Bringing insects that can destroy vegetation and many of which also carry human disease.
Access to potable water has been a point of conflict between peoples and nations for thousands of years. A major source of potable water from Peru and Bolivia to Himalayan valleys is the melt water from glaciers.
A glacier forms when snow accumulates over time, turns to ice, and begins to flow outwards and downwards under the pressure of its own weight. Glacier retreat, melt, and ablation result from increasing temperature, evaporation, and wind scouring. Ablation is a natural and seasonal part of glacier life. As long as snow accumulation equals or is greater than melt and ablation, a glacier will remain in balance or even grow. Once winter snowfall decreases, or summer melt increases, the glacier will begin to retreat. Asian glaciers LONDON (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Asian glaciers are set to shrink by at least a third by 2100 due to climate change, threatening millions who depend on the meltwaters for potable water, irrigation, and hydro-electricity.[xiii]
The link between water and conflict was highlighted by former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in his 2011 remarks to the Security Council “Around the world, hundreds of millions of people are in danger of going short of food and water, undermining the most essential foundations of local, national, and global stability. Competition between communities and countries for scarce resources – especially water – is increasing, exacerbating old security dilemmas and creating new ones."
In a 2017 study by the World Food Programme (WFP), it was found that countries with the highest level of food insecurity, coupled with armed conflict, have the highest outward migration of refugees. The study also found that when food insecurity is compounded by poverty, there is an increase in the likelihood and intensity of armed conflicts.[xiv]
There is a reason that we use phrases such as ‘heated argument’ ‘hot and bothered’ ‘hot under the collar’ ‘let cooler heads prevail’ and ‘take time to cool off’. People are physiologically unable to cope well with being hot. In response to heat, our bodies attempt to cool off. People sweat, blood vessels dilate, metabolic rate increases, heart rate increases, and levels of testosterone increases. People also suffer from cognitive mental impairment.[xv]
In their study, Climate and Conflict, Marshall Burke, Solomon M. Hsiang, and Edward Miguel reviewed 56 studies of heat in its relation to violence and analyzed 24 conflicts. Conflicts that were analyzed included both fights between individuals (like fistfights) and fights between groups (like wars). After taking it all in, they found compelling evidence of a link between changes in temperature and increases in conflict, noting that "deviations from moderate temperatures and precipitation patterns systematically increase the risk of conflict, often substantially, with average effects that are highly statistically significant."[xvi] Additionally, they found that in the tropics that a 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in temperature is associated with a more than 20% increase in large-scale civil conflicts.
Therefore, on a planet that is increasing in temperature and changing access to resources, we can expect more wars, civil unrest, and more violent crime in general.
How do we mitigate this seemingly inevitable increase in violence and migration cause by conflict? By improving the lives of people around the world. People with access to clean water, food, jobs, education, and basic human rights are less likely to be involved in conflict. By ensuring that everyone’s needs are being met, we can face the challenges and changes wrought by climate change without the specter of war.
Questions for further exploration:
1. Where is Sea Level Rise already happening?
a. Where will people go?
b. Can a country exist without land/territory?
c. How will a culture/community be maintained? Will assimilationoccur?
2. If there is no legal path for migration of climate refugees, what will happen?
(Paris Agreement – fund set up to help small island nations and low lying coastal countries)
3. What do we know about the relationship between environmentally induced migration and conflict?