MISSION STATEMENTS
ABOUT DAWG
Mission
The Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG), is a first-of-its-kind stakeholder group initiated by the California Energy Commission (Energy Commission) in 2008 to provide a forum for sharing information pertinent to electricity and natural gas demand forecasting in California. The Energy Commission’s Electricity Supply Analysis Division sponsors and manages the DAWG.
Topic Areas include:
· Inputs to and development of demand forecasts
· Modeling assumptions and techniques used to produce the forecasts
· Approaches for ensuring transparency
· Uses for demand forecast results
Of particular importance to the DAWG are methods and approaches for including energy efficiency — the first resource in the state’s energy procurement loading order — in demand forecasts and energy procurement decisions.
Purpose & Goals
Information developed by the DAWG and its members is used in regulatory proceedings including the Energy Commission’s California Energy Demand Forecast and Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR), and the CPUC’s Long Term Procurement and Energy Efficiency proceedings.
An important goal of the DAWG is to provide a forum for interaction between functional groups within and between organizations on topics related to demand forecasting, energy efficiency and energy procurement, recognizing that in many cases these activities operate in separate arenas within the member organizations.
Subgroups
The DAWG meets regularly, either as the full working group or in two key “subgroups” – the Demand Forecasting Subgroup, related to demand forecasting in general, and the Energy Savings Subgroup with a focus on energy efficiency.
History
When it began, the DAWG was called the Demand Forecasting Energy Efficiency Quantification Project (DFEEQP) but that name was changed in 2010 to better reflect the Working Group’s scope and activities. The DFEEQP originally focused on improving the quantification of energy efficiency in the demand forecasts. However it soon became apparent that opportunities for collaboration between stakeholders on broader topics related to demand analysis was beneficial. These interactions have improved coordination between organizations that contribute data to and/or rely upon the Energy Commission’s electricity and natural gas demand forecasts for a number of applications. While the DFEEQP was initially convened to facilitate the Energy Commission’s work during the 2009 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) cycle, the working group was found to be useful. Thus the DAWG continues to operate as an active forum for stakeholders with interests in demand forecasting and energy procurement in California, with a special focus on incorporating load-modifying activities such as energy efficiency into demand forecasts.
Key documents describing the Energy Commission’s original initiative to improve quantification of energy efficiency in the demand forecasts are posted on the Energy Commission’s website as part of two workshops: Committee Workshop on Energy Efficiency and Demand Forecasting held on March 11, 2008 and Committee Workshop on Electricity and Natural Gas Forecasting Process held on August 12, 2008.
The following information is adapted from one of those documents, prepared in August 2008, which described the “conceptual project plan” for improved quantification of energy efficiency in the Energy Commission’s demand forecasts. (The document describes goals in particular for the 2009 IEPR cycle, but envisions continuous improvement for subsequent cycles.) The plan recognized that in order to accomplish the goals the Energy Commission had established for itself, it would be necessary to engage other stakeholders more fully.
As described in the conceptual project plan, the Energy Commission’s 2007 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) committed the Energy Commission to examining issues raised with respect to the amount of energy efficiency included within the adopted demand forecast. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) agreed that the IEPR is the proper forum in which to address these topics, and in CPUC R.08-02-007, directed the California Investor-Owned Utilities (IOUs) to participate in this process. The 2008-09 IEPR Committee conducted a workshop on this topic and the closely related issues of the incremental effect of near-term energy efficiency programs and long-term energy efficiency potential beyond the adopted demand forecast on March 11, 2008. At its March 17, 2008 meeting, the 2008-09 IEPR Committee determined that staff resources should be devoted to three topics over the course of the 2008 IEPR Update and 2009 IEPR time period:
1. Improving estimated impacts of energy efficiency within the demand forecast and attribution to motivating forces, such as price response, market effects, program participation, requirements of standards, etc.;
2. Creating a new capability to project near-term program impacts incremental to the Energy Commission’s demand forecast; and
3. Creating new capability to project long-term impacts from portions of potential
that are identified as achievable under various program designs.
Click here to see documents for the August 12, 2008 meeting, including the Conceptual Project Plan discussed above.
DEMAND FORECASTING
Demand Forecasting Subgroup
Purpose & Goals
The DAWG’s Demand Forecasting Subgroup or “pup” provides a forum to share and discuss methodology, input data assumptions, and policy assumptions related to electricity and natural gas demand forecasts in California. The forum is meant to be a catalyst for improving the quality, comprehensiveness, and transparency of demand forecasts and related data inputs, particularly those forecasts presented and/or discussed during the California Energy Commission’s (CEC) Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) process, and to better integrate these forecasts into resource planning decisions.
Topic Areas & Activities
Key Demand Forecasting Subgroup topic areas and activities include:
· Changes/upgrades in 2011 IEPR forecast
· Appropriate scenarios (econ/demo and otherwise) for the 2011 IEPR forecast
· Comparison of current forecasting techniques used by the CEC, utilities, and other stakeholders, including methodologies and key drivers
· Comparison of CEC forecast results to utility and other forecasts
· Identification of new/alternative forecasting techniques that may be relevant but not in widespread use
· Pros and cons of a Common Forecasting Methodology
· Incorporating uncertainty more fully in demand forecasts, including uncertainty related to energy efficiency and distributed generation (DG) impacts
· Identification of economic/demographic trends within a service area that may affect energy consumption
· Energy market activities that may affect future electricity and natural gas use, including transportation electrification
· Provide input to the CEC’s Demand Model Methodology Evaluation (DMME) effort
· Techniques and assumptions for incorporating climate change in demand forecasts
· Integration of modeling results that use different techniques (e.g., integrating results from econometric forecast with savings from end use models)
· Creation and maintenance of a standardized forecasting glossary of terms
· Ensuring consistency between estimated historical energy savings and projected savings
· Integration of a more comprehensive, consumption-based approach to measuring energy savings into demand forecasts
· Methods for weather adjustment and accounting for extreme weather events in demand forecasts
· Data collection efforts for data used in demand forecasting
· Continuity over time (including clarification to changes in methodologies, assumptions, techniques or inputs that render notable changes over time)
· Reflecting demand-side resources in forecasts, in particular energy efficiency and distributed generation.
· Special topics may include:
o Compilation of historical impacts
o “Rebound,” naturally occurring conservation, price effects
o Attribution of impacts to specific interventions or entities
Home / ENERGY SAVINGS
ENERGY SAVINGS
Energy Savings Subgroup
Purpose & Goals
The DAWG’s Energy Savings Subgroup or “‘pup” provides a forum to share and discuss electricity and natural gas load impacts from energy efficiency, including historic, current and future accomplishments of a variety of efforts designed to encourage the efficient use of energy. Programs implemented by investor-owned utilities (IOUs) and publicly-owned utilities (POUs) are of particular interest, as well as other statewide, federal and local initiatives likely to produce meaningful impacts. The subgroup focuses on evaluation, measurement & verification (EM&V) activities related to the reporting and assembling of such load impacts.
The subgroup’s ultimate goal is to ensure that a unit of load reduction in one venue is equivalent to a unit of load reduction from another venue and also comparable between energy efficiency and distributed generation.
(At this time, the proposed “Potential and Goals” subgroup operates together with the Energy Savings subgroup. The purpose of the “Potential and Goals” subgroup is to discuss forecasting efforts aimed at estimating the impact or potential impact of load-modifying activities such as efforts to promote energy efficiency and distributed generation .)
Topics Areas & Activities
Key Energy Savings Subgroup topic areas and activities include:
· Share updates on the status of EM&V activities, in particular those designed to measure load impacts from IOU, POU, statewide and other significant programs
· Discuss issues related to the interaction of savings claims between programs – both to address possible double-counting and to understand “market transformation/spillover” effects from multiple programs
· Plan for development and maintenance of a database of forecasted, reported and evaluated savings for all the state’s utilities (IOU and POU)
· Provide periodic progress reports on agency efforts to quantify and standardize savings from standards and or programs
· Provide a forum for discussing and, where appropriate, coordinating activities such as goals and potential studies
· Address issues related to longitudinal program data collection and consistency of reported program impacts over time
· Discuss consistency of energy savings impacts (including baselines) across jurisdictions.
Address caveats to energy efficiency characterizations in the 2009 IEPR and incremental-uncommitted energy efficiency report
· Determine the appropriate metric for efficiency program peak savings – The CPUC MW goals for 2004-2013 are based on average peak savings over a “peak period” while peak savings in the incremental uncommitted analysis were estimated relative to the actual peak hour. Which convention should we use in the future?
· Review EE component of revised and preliminary forecasts, and comment on issues for developing those forecasts as needed
· Serve as the primary Subgroup “home” for, and interact with the Demand Forecasting Subgroup (and possible future Potential and Goals Subgroup) on topics such as:
o Measure decay
o Macro-consumption metrics
o Compilation of historical impacts
o Behavioral impacts
o Specification of “Total Market Gross” impact measurements, including:
§ Naturally occurring conservation
§ Net/gross savings
§ Quantification of load impacts from market transformation
§ Price effects
o Takeback / rebound
o Attribution of impacts to specific interventions or entities
o Glossary of terms
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