Illinois Job Index

Release
3/29/2016 / Data
Jan 1990 / Feb2016 / Issue
2016.3 /

ForFebruary2016Illinois Job Index, the nation, Illinois and RMWall had positive growth.

The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.

 / March
2016
Positive / Jan2016–Feb2016 / Last 12 months / Feb2016
Total non-farm employment / Growth Rate % / Number of Jobs / Growth Rate% / Number of Jobs / Shadow U.R.*
Nation / 0.17 / 242,000 / 1.90 / 2,672,000 / 10.23
RMW / 0.18 / 35,700 / 1.47 / 292,700 / 9.86
Illinois / 0.30 / 18,100 / 1.11 / 65,700 / 9.69

*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.

Talking Points
Illinois
Notes /
  • Illinoisadded18,100jobs in February2016, compared with arevised 1,500jobgain inJanuary2016. Compared to February2015, Illinois has added65,700 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor market, showed anincreaseof3,800 jobs per month.
  • The Nation added 242,000jobs at a rate of 0.17%, compared with a revised 172,000job gain in January 2016. The three-month moving average was up by 228,300 jobs per month.
  • The RMW added35,700 jobs inFebruaryafter arevised 34,100 job gain in January 2016. The three-month moving average was up by38,100 jobs per month.
  • The state of Illinois now has 8,600 more jobs than in December 2007 when the recent recession started.
  • Three sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 – Construction, Manufacturing, and Information.
  • Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 410,100 new jobs.
  • By February2016 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Trade, transportation & utilities and Information.
  • The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 9.69%, 9.86% and 10.23%, compared to official unemployment rates of 6.4%, 4.6% and 4.9%.
  • ThroughFebruary 2016, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 13.77%, 17.93%, and 31.48%, respectively.

Nation
Notes /
  • Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 242,000 jobs. Sectors such asLeisure & hospitalities,Trade, transportation & utilitiesandEducation & healthhad major job growth.
  • The nation has recovered from the recent recession andadded5,147,000additional jobs since the last employment peak in December 2007. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
  • The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2016were -0.01%, -0.24%, -0.38%, 0.09%, 0.13%, 0.11%,0.12%, 0.14%, 0.12% and 0.14%respectively.

Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
February2016
Number of Jobs / Current
Index to Jan 1990 / Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Pervious Peak
Nation / 143,560,000 / 131.48 / 126.57 (Dec-2007) / 34,376,000 / 5,147,000
RMW / 20,154,800 / 117.93 / 119.44 (Jun-2000) / 3,064,200 / -248,900
Illinois / 5,993,800 / 113.77 / 115.08 (Nov-2000) / 725,500 / -60,200
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – February 2016
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth RatesMarch 2015 –February2016

Barometer of Job Recovery

* The figure510,300 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point,Dec-2009 is470,300. Adding 40,000, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 510,300.

**The figure 26,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.

*** The figure 410,100 represents the jobs recoveredfrom December 2009 throughFebruary 2016.

Employment Growth Rateby Sector:

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector, January2016 – February2016
Sector notes /
  • Illinois posted positivechange inFebruary 2016 byadding18,100jobs. Fiveout of ten sectors recorded netgains. Compared to January 2016, Other Services(-0.83% to 1.15%) hada major performance gain, whileConstruction(0.09% to -1.10%) had a major performance loss. Government(-0.31% to 0.16%), Leisure & hospitality (0.12% to 0.72%), Professional & business services (-0.01% to 0.72%), Financial activities (-0.45% to -0.11%), Information(-0.60% to 0.00%), Trade, transportation & utilities (0.30% to 0.37%)and Manufacturing (0.12% to 0.61%)also experienced performance gains, whileEducation & health (0.35% to -0.22%)also experienced net loss in performance.
  • InFebruaryat the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
  • Leisure & hospitality:48,000 (0.31%)
  • Trade, transportation & utilities: 53,000 (0.20%)
  • Education & health:86,000(0.38%)
  • The only sector that lost jobs at the national level was:
  • Manufacturing: -16,000 (-0.13%)
  • For Illinois, themajorjob-gain sectors inFebruarywere:
  • Leisure & hospitality:4,200 (0.72%)
  • Trade, transportation & utilities:4,500(0.37%)
  • Professional & business services: 6,600 (0.72%)
  • The top-three sectors that lost jobs in Februaryfor Illinois were:
  • Construction: -2,400 (-1.10%)
  • Financial Activities: -400 (-0.11%)
  • Education & health: -2,000 (-0.22%)
  • For Illinois, threesectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment levels, Manufacturing has shed 341,700jobs, Construction is down 14,800jobs andInformation has31,700fewer jobs.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 –February 2016
Illinois / RMW / Nation
vs. RMW / vs. / Number of Jobs / Rate % / Rate / Rate
Nation / % / %
Construction / - / - / -14,800 / -6.42 / 17.84 / 22.30
Manufacturing / - / - / -341,700 / -37.05 / -23.93 / -30.74
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / - / - / 58,800 / 5.12 / 8.38 / 19.76
Information / - / - / -31,700 / -24.33 / -19.62 / 4.08
Financial activities / - / - / 5,200 / 1.40 / 18.07 / 24.69
Professional & business services / - / - / 350,200 / 61.22 / 74.27 / 85.74
Education & health / - / - / 378,700 / 71.57 / 74.95 / 108.65
Leisure & hospitality / + / - / 204,800 / 53.35 / 38.45 / 66.15
Other Services / - / - / 49,500 / 24.08 / 25.05 / 34.40
Government / - / - / 76,000 / 10.06 / 10.58 / 21.44
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –February 2016
Job Changes in Recession Period* / Job Changes in Jan 2010-Feb2016 / Recovery Rate / Forecasted Job Changes Jan 2010-February 2017 / Forecasted Recovery Rate
Construction / -63,800 / 14,100 / 22.10% / 14,900 / 23.35%
Manufacturing / -114,600 / 22,300 / 19.46% / 34,100 / 29.76%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / -97,700 / 82,000 / 83.93% / 78,400 / 80.25%
Information / -11,300 / -5,800 / -51.33% / -9,600 / -84.96%
Financial activities / -32,600 / 5,300 / 16.26% / 10,900 / 33.44%
Professional & business services / -92,300 / 142,200 / 154.06% / 154,700 / 167.61%
Education & health / 33,800 / 89,300 / - / 101,200 / -
Leisure & hospitality / -22,300 / 72,600 / 325.56% / 83,700 / 375.34%
Other services / -5,900 / -3,800 / -64.41% / -600 / -10.17%
Government / 6,000 / -26,700 / - / -26,900 / -

*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009

Recovery by Sector /
  • During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
  • Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services andLeisure & hospitality have recovered 22.10%, 19.46%, 83.93%, 16.26%, 154.06% and325.56%respectively, from the jobs lost during the recession.
  • By February 2016, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
  • However, the recovery rates for Information and Other Servicesare still negative, namely -51.33% and -64.41%.
  • The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Trade, transportation & utilities andInformation.

Construction / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -1.10 / -2,400
RMW / 0.94 / 7,600
Nation / 0.29 / 19,000
Manufacturing / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.61 / 3,500
RMW / -0.41 / -11,400
Nation / -0.13 / -16,000
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.37 / 4,500
RMW / 0.49 / 18,500
Nation / 0.20 / 53,000
Information / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.00 / 0
RMW / -0.49 / -1,400
Nation / 0.43 / 12,000
Financial activities / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.11 / -400
RMW / 0.49 / 5,200
Nation / 0.07 / 6,000
Professional & business services / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.72 / 6,600
RMW / -0.39 / -9,700
Nation / 0.12 / 23,000
Education & health / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.22 / -2,000
RMW / 0.43 / 13,500
Nation / 0.38 / 86,000
Leisure & hospitality / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.72 / 4,200
RMW / 0.33 / 6,500
Nation / 0.31 / 48,000
Other Services / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 1.15 / 2,900
RMW / 0.28 / 2,400
Nation / 0.30 / 17,000
Government / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016 / Jan 2016 - Feb 2016
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.16 / 1,300
RMW / 0.19 / 5,400
Nation / 0.05 / 12,000

ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at

Illinois Jobs Index / release 3/29/2016 / / page 1