IMPORTANT INFLUENZA UPDATE #20
WHO PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL 5
MedPrep Consulting Group LLC
Dr. Stuart B. Weiss
May 18, 2009
One Step Closer to WHO Pandemic Phase Six
As the number of cases soars in Japan from 5 on Friday to 135 this morning and Japan orders nearly 2000 schools closed, the WHO looks closely at the developing situation in Japan, Spain and the UK to decide on the appropriate WHO Pandemic Phase.
CURRENT SITUATION:
*The number of cases of H1N1 (swine) in Japan have jumped significantly over the weekend from 5 on Friday to 135 this morning. This has prompted school closures and event cancellations in that country. Most of the cases as near the cities of Kobe and Osaka and are thought to have spread quickly when two High Schools in the area met for a volleyball tournament. Screening programs are established at airports so expect some delays.
*The WHO is reporting that there are now 8829 confirmed cases of H1N1 (swine) in 40 countries around the world. The top six countries with confirmed cases are Mexico, US, Canada, Japan, Spain and the U.K.
*In South America, Chile and Peru announced their first cases over the weekend.
*In the U.S., as of Friday, there were 4714 confirmed cases reported in 46 states plus Washington D.C.. Updated numbers come out at 11 AM
*Canada reported 496 confirmed cases.
*In a recent statement, the WHO said that there is still no evidence of sustained community spread outside of North America so the Pandemic Phase will stay at 5. In Europe, Spain has now reported 103 cases and the United Kingdom has report 82 cases.
*The sixth U.S. death was reported in New York City yesterday in a school principal. New York City has closed 11 schools due to clusters of flu cases.
*There is evidence that cases of seasonal flu have continued at a higher rate than expected for this time of year in the Northern Hemisphere.
*Egypt has confirmed a new case of H5N1 (avian) flu in a 5 year old who had close contact with sick or dead poultry. The child has been hospitalized, placed on Tamiflu and is in stable condition.
ANALYSIS:
The spike in cases over the weekend in Japan in teenagers is further evidence on how easily this virus spreads, especially in young people. Japan is already a flu-crazy country due to their aging population and their culture of cleanliness. Over half of all the Tamiflu in the world is used in Japan each year and mask usage on urban trains is commonplace as it is considered impolite to sneeze without wearing a mask. As of Friday, the Japanese thought that they had this contained but things changed significantly over the weekend. The media are reporting that hoards of people are showing up at hospitals to e checked. If you have business in Japan, expect some disruptions as the country reacts to this health threat and schools are closed.
It is important to remember that the number of actual cases around the world is probably much higher than the number of confirmed cases. The first confirmed case in a student who had not been abroad was just announced in Japan on Saturday and today there are 135 cases. This is true in other countries as well. Most cases in Japan and around the world continue to be in teenagers and young adults.
Here is New York City, H1N1 (swine) is on everyone's mind again with the closure of 11 schools and the death of a school official over the weekend. New Yorkers had pretty much assumed the the whole "swine flu" issue was resolved until things heated up again. Although its unclear exactly why there is such high numbers of school clusters in New York City, this is not unexpected as the spread of flu can be unpredictable. These week long school closures have been carefully thought out by the NYC Department of Health but will still have consequences for companies in New York as parents scramble to arrange for child care.
ADVICE:
*Follow the situation in Japan if you have business there. The situation in Japan is evolving with cases totals changing often. The government has already discouraged unnecessary travel so keep an eye on travel restrictions if you have business in Japan.
*Review the 4 pillars of Pandemic preparedness: Structure, Plans, Tools and Validation:
*Structure - how do you organize, manage and communicate
*Plans - review your tasks, assignments, policies, procedures and FAQ's. Do you have a well thought out trigger based action plan?
*Tools - what do you have in place to help you manage your structure and implement the plans
*Validation strategies - how will you validate the plans you have created and the structure you have put into place.
Not preparing now would be a serious mistake should things worsen quickly.