Final Draft – 15th November 2010

\NEWTOWN & PARKSTONE AREA COMMITTEE – 5TH JANUARY 2011

BOROUGH OF POOLE

CHILDREN AND YOUNG PEOPLE OVERVIEW AND SCRUTINY COMMITTEE

16 NOVEMBER 2010

CHILDREN’S SERVICES CAPITAL PROGRAMME BOARD

25 NOVEMBER 2010

JOINT REPORT OF THE HEADS OF CHILDREN AND YOUNG PEOPLE’S SERVICES - STRATEGY, QUALITY AND IMPROVEMENT AND INTEGRATED SERVICES

FUTURE NEED FOR SCHOOL PLACES

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Background

Poole is currently experiencing significant changes in the numbers and distribution of its school age population. This is likely to continue over the next decade and will impact on the number of school places required in Poole. Poole is not unique, as these changes are also reflected in national trends, and by adjoining authorities.

There are four factors driving these changes:

1)Increasing numbers of births.

2)Increasing levels of in-migration.

3)New developments being built.

4)Increases in the proportion of children opting for state funded education in Poole.

Year R (Reception)

The actual number of children entering Reception between September 2005 and September 2010 increased by 200 children. Most of this additional need for school places was absorbedby spare capacity as a result of previous falling rolls but also by the addition of 2 forms of entry (60 places) at Old Town First School and Nursery and Lilliput CE VC First School.

A further sharper increase of an additional 141 children is predicted in Reception in September 2011. The Council has already put in place plans to provide an additional 5 forms of entry (150 places) for September 2011.

The latest school pupil forecasts show that an additional 1 form of entry (30 places) is needed in Reception in September 2012. It is recommended that the Published Admission Number of Hamworthy First School and Nursery should increase from 90 to 120 in September 2012 for one year in the first instance.

Options are currently being considered for providing an additional 2 forms of entry (60 places) in Year R in September 2014 if the need for places in Year R remains at 2012 levels once the temporary increases at Longfleet CE VC Combined School and St Aldhelm’s CE VA Combined School have ended.

The table below sets out a summary of the additional places needed in Year R over the period 2011-2014:

Year (September) / Primary Phase / Additional places / School / Status
2011 / Year R / + 150 (5FE) / Sylvan First School (60 places)
Longfleet Combined School (30 places)
St Aldhelm’s Combined School (30 places)
Talbot Combined School (30 places) / Increases in PANs determined in admissions arrangements for 2011/12.
Funding from revised PCP investment plan.
2012 / Year R / + 30 (1FE) / Hamworthy First School (1 year first instance) / Proposal to consult on increase in PAN for 2012/13.
Funding to be secured.
2014 / Year R / + 60 places (2 FE) / Options under consideration:
Stanley Green First School (30 places)
Old Town First School (30 places)
St Aldhelm’s Combined School (30 places) / Options under consideration. Proposals will be brought forward as part of admissions arrangements for 2014/15.

It is recommended that Courthill First School should remain at 3 form of entry with a Published Admission Number of 90 so that there is a balance between the number of places between Lilliput CE VC First School and Courthill First School and Baden-Powell and St Peter’s CE VC Middle School.

Year 4 (Year 3 from 2013)

280 additional places in Year 4 (Year 3 from 2013) will be required over the period 2012 to 2015. The table below shows where these 280 places may be created:

Year (September) / Primary Phase / Additional places / School / Status
2012 / Year 4 / + 30 (1FE) / Baden Powell and St Peter’s Middle School / Funding approved as part of PCP investment plan.
Proposal to increase PAN to be consulted on as part of 2012/13 admissions arrangements.
2013 / Year 3 / + 90 (3FE) / Heatherland First becomes Primary School / Funding dependent on future capital allocations.
Statutory proposals must be published to change school into a Primary School.
2014 / Year 3 / + 90 (3FE) / Places put into Longfleet, St Aldhelm's and Talbot Combined in Sept 2011 reach Year 3. / Options under consideration. Funding dependent on future capital allocations.
Year 3 / + 40 places / Oakdale South Road Middle
2015 / Year 3 / + 30 (1FE) / Hamworthy Middle (for 1 year in first instance) / Funding dependent on future capital allocations.

Regeneration Housing Developments

Poole Core Strategy (2009) sets out a target of delivering 10,000 new homes between 2006 and 2026. 3,000 have already been built, leaving a residual target of 7,000 new homes to be built from now until 2026.

According to Poole’s latest Housing Trajectory, published in May 2010, around 3,700 new houses will be built during the period 2010/11 to 2015/16. Around 1,500 of these will be built around the Holes Bay/Hamworthy East area, Poole Town and Talbot Village.

A modelling tool has been developed in Poole to predict the number of children these additional dwellings are likely to generate. Work is currently on-going to estimate the additional demand on school places that these new developments will generate.

Catchment Area Review

Work is currently progressing in accordance with the approved timeline.

  1. PURPOSE OF REPORT

1.1The purpose of this report is to:

a)Update Members on the need for school places in the Primary and Secondary phases for the next 10 years based on the revised school pupil forecasts in order that the Council can make plans to meet its statutory duty to provide sufficient and suitable school places for Poole resident children of statutory school age. The school pupil forecasts are produced using new data as it becomes available and the actual numbers of children in the school system and are subject to regular review and monitoring.

b)Advise Members that a separate report has been presented to the Overview and Scrutiny Committee by the Head of Children and Young People’s Integrated Services seeking a recommendation to Cabinet to approve consultation on proposals for Community and VC school Published Admission Numbers for 2012/13 as set out in Appendix B. The background to these proposals is set out in this report.

c)Update Members on the latest information on regeneration housing developments in relation to pupil place planning.

d)Update Members on progress to date with the catchment area review.

e)Advise Members that a further report will be brought forward in January 2011 when the Children’s Services Capital Strategy is reviewed in the light of the outcomes of the Government’s Capital Review. This report will estimate the costs of providing the additional school places required over the next 10 years and potential sources of funding to meet these costs.

2. DECISION REQUIRED

2.1 That the Overview and Scrutiny Committee and the Capital Programme Board note the contents of this report.

3. BACKGROUND

3.1Background to the revised school pupil forecasts is set out in Appendix A.

4.PUBLISHED ADMISSION NUMBERS FOR COMMUNITY AND VC SCHOOLS 2012/13

4.1School admission arrangements are statutorily required to be reviewed, consulted upon and published annually and must be in line with the mandatory requirements of the School Admissions Code of Practice.

4.2The School Admissions Code of Practice and supporting Regulations set out the statutory timescale regarding the publishing of school admission arrangements:

  • Consultation must last for a minimum of 8 weeks
  • Consultation must be completed by 1 March
  • Must be approved no later than 15 April

4.3The proposed admission arrangements include draft Published Admission Numbers (PANS) for all Community and Voluntary Controlled schools in Poole. PANs are the maximum number of pupils the school can accommodate in the admission year at a school.

4.4The Local Authority has a statutory duty to provide sufficient and suitable school places for Poole resident children of statutory school age.

4.5The Head of Children and Young People’s Integrated Services will present a report to the November meeting of the Children and Young People Overview and Scrutiny Committee seeking a recommendation to Cabinet to approve consultation on the school admissions arrangements for 2012/13 in accordance with statutory requirements. The consultation period will start on 15 December 2010 and ends on 28 February 2011.

4.6Appendix B sets out the proposed changes to PANs in the Primary phase for 2012/13.

5.PRIMARY PHASE PUPIL NUMBERS – YEAR R

Introduction

5.1The ‘2010 Local Authority Level School Pupils Forecasts’ show a steady increase in the actual number of pupils entering Reception between September 2005 and September 2010. The actual number of pupils increased by 200 children, from 1,205 in September 2005 to 1,405 in September 2010 (See Figure 1).

5.2A further sharper increase, an additional 141 children, is predicted for September 2011. This will be followed by a further increase of 42 children to September 2012. A total of 1,588 children are estimated to enter Reception in September 2012.

5.3Currently, there are 1,470 school places at Reception age in Poole schools. The figure below sets out the Actual and Projected number of children entering Reception in Poole Schools 2000-2013, against current and future requirement for number of Reception places. Clearly a further 150 places are required for September 2011 and 30 additional places in September 2012 to accommodate the increase in Reception numbers predicted.

Additional places in Year R for September 2011

5.4The Committee, and subsequently the Council, agreed earlier this year the following increase in capacity in Year R for September 2011:

School / Current PAN / Revised PAN / No of additional places
Sylvan First School* / 90 / 150 / 60
Longfleet CE VC Combined School** / 60 / 90 / 30
St Aldhelm’s CE VA Combined School** / 60 / 90 / 30
Talbot Combined School / 60 / 90 / 30
TOTAL ADDITIONAL PLACES / 150

*Increase to 5 FE for a temporary period and reduce to 4 FE when circumstances allow. No date has been identified for when the school will reduce to 4 FE which will depend upon the longer term need for school places.

**Increases for a temporary period of three years i.e. 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2013/14.

Additional places in Year R for September 2012

Hamworthy / Town Centre Area

5.5As described above, the latest school pupil forecasts show that an additional form of entry (30 places) is needed in Year R in September 2012 in the Hamworthy / Town Centre area.

5.6An options appraisal and feasibility study has exploredthree options in order to identify the preferred solution that fits best with the current distribution of children and available resources. These options were:

  • The PAN of Hamworthy First School and Nursery increases from 90 to 120
  • The PAN of Turlin Moor Community School increases from 45 to 60.
  • The PAN of Old Town First School and Nursery increases from 60 to 90.

5.7It is proposed that this increase should be for one year in the first instance and then reviewed in the light of revised school pupil forecasts.

5.8The study has also considered the future impact on Hamworthy Middle School and Oakdale South Road Middle School as the 30 additional places in Year R in 2012 will result in a need for 30 additional places in Year 3 in 2015. When the change in the age of transfer takes effect in 2013, Middle schools will become Junior schools and Year 3 will then be the first year in Junior Schools.

5.9The findings of the study are that:

  • It would be feasible to implement all three options considered.
  • An increase for one year only would be easier to accommodate than an increase for several years or on a permanent basis.
  • An increase at Turlin Moor would add 15 places when 30 additional places are required.
  • An increase at Old Town would place additional pressure on places at Oakdale South Road Middle School where it is already known that there will be a need for 2 additional forms of entry in 2014.

5.10The officers’ recommendation is that the PAN of Hamworthy First School and Nursery should increase from 90 to 120 in September 2012 for one year in the first instance and then reviewed in the light of revised school pupil forecasts.

5.11Officers from Children’s Services and Asset Management and Property Services will review and test the buildability, feasibility, costs, spend profile and risk profile of the proposals for Hamworthy First School and Nursery arising from the options appraisal and feasibility study and will bring forward proposals for budget approval in January 2011.

Courthill First School

5.12In May 2010 the Council resolved to review the Courthill First School proposals for a possible increase in one form of entry for 2012 onwards.

5.13Courthill First School is currently a 3 form of entry First School (90 places) for children aged 4-7 (Reception to Year 3). The school currently has capacity for 360 children which means that there are 90 children in each of the 4 year groups.

5.14In 2013 when the change in the age of transfer is implemented, Courthill First School will become an Infant school for children aged 4-6 (Reception to Year 2). The school would then need a capacity of 270 for 90 children in each of the 3 year groups. This means that there would be surplus capacity created by the loss of Year 3.

5.15An options appraisal and feasibility study was commissioned to review the proposals. This study has concluded that it would be feasible to change the school from a 3 form entry First School to a 4 FE Infant School commencing in 2012 and that the costs would be in the region of £500k.

5.16The benefits of increasing Courthill First School are:

  • The places would be added at a school where there is pressure on places from within the catchment area;
  • The Council would be seen to be responding to representations from parents who have been unable to secure places at their catchment school;
  • The capital costs would be relatively low;
  • The school are keen to increase their PAN because it would mitigate the effects of losing Year 3 in 2013.

5.17The disadvantages of increasing Courthill First School are:

  • The Council would be establishing a school system in this area of Poole with an in-built shortfall between the First schools and Baden-Powell and St Peter’s CE VC Middle School.

There are currently 3 FE (90 places) at Lilliput CE VC First School and 3 FE (90 places) at Courthill First School. It is proposed to increase Baden-Powell and St Peter’s from 5 FE (150 places) to 6 FE (180 places) with effect from September 2012.

With the additional 30 pupils going to Baden-Powell and St Peter’s in September 2012, any additional pupils from Courthill First School would increase the size of the school to 7 FE (210 pupils) in 2013. This is too large for a Junior school and could not be accommodated on the Baden-Powell and St Peter’s site.

This shortfall would mean that every year an additional 30 children from Lilliput and Courthill would not secure a place at Baden-Powell and St Peter’s. This would be very distressing for families at both Courthill and Lilliput and would increase anxiety for parents worried about where their child would transfer to at the end of First school. It would also be likely to result in a greater number of representations from parents and an increase in the number of admissions appeals.

Depending on the demand for places at other Junior schools in 2013, it is likely that the only alternative for the additional pupils transferring from Courthill First School and Lilliput CE VC First School would be Branksome Heath Junior School.

  • At admissions appeals over the last few years the admission authority has argued that site constraints on Courthill First School means that no additional accommodation could be built. If an increase in accommodation is agreed now this could raise concerns amongst some parents who have had unsuccessful appeals.
  • A review of the school’s catchment area would be likely to decrease the size of Courthill First School’s catchment area. This would mean that some parents living in (and buying property in) this and Baden-Powell and St Peter’s catchment area would be moved to another school’s catchment area. This would be likely to be the Sylvan First School / Branksome Heath Middle School catchment area.

5.18Officers consider it important that the Council does not consider individual schools in isolation without taking into account the impact on schools in the same age range and the schools that pupils will transfer to for the next stage of their education. It is important that the structure of education, particularly where there is transfer between Key Stages 1 and 2 (Infant / Junior), is clear and transparent to parents.

5.19The officers’ recommendation is that Courthill First School should not increase to 4 FE from September 2012. It should remain at 3 FE with a Published Admission Number of 90 so that there is a balance between the number of places between Lilliput CE VC First School and Courthill First School and Baden-Powell and St Peter’s CE VC Middle School.

Additional Places in Year R for September 2014

5.20In September 2011 the Published Admission Number (PAN) of Longfleet CE VC Combined School and St Aldhelm’s CE VA Combined School will increase from 60 to 90 for a temporary period of three years ie. 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2013/14.

5.21If the need for places in Year R remain at 2012 levels once the temporary increases at Longfleet Combined School and St Aldhelm’s Combined School have ended, 2 FE (60 places) in Year R will be required for September 2014.

5.22Options currently under consideration include:

  • The PAN of Stanley Green First School increases from 90 to 120 in September 2014.
  • The PAN of Old Town First School and Nursery increases from 60 to 90 in September 2014.
  • The PAN of St Aldhelm’s CE VA Combined School remains at 90 in September 2014.

6.PRIMARY PHASE PUPIL NUMBERS – YEAR 4 (YEAR 3 AFTER CHANGE IN AGE OF TRANSFER

Introduction

6.1Trends in the number of children in Year 4 (Year 3 from September 2013) at Middle School entry stage will follow a similar trend as Reception numbers, just with a 4 year delay. The actual number of pupils entering Year 4, between September 2005 and September 2009 has fallen. The number of pupils decreased, by 207 children, from 1,437 in September 2005 to 1,230 in September 2009.

6.2September 2010 saw a return to growth in numbers in Year 4 to 1,285. This increase is anticipated to continue to September 2015, mirroring the trends already seen in Reception numbers. An additional 320 children are predicted, with numbers of children in Year 3 rising to 1,605 in September 2015. The sharpest increase of 142 children will occur between September 2013 and September 2014.

6.3Currently, there are 1,400 school places in Year 4 in Poole schools. A further 280 places are required by September 2015 to accommodate the increase in numbers predicted.

6.4The figure below shows the Actual and Projected number of children entering Year 4 (Year 3 from September 2013) over the period 2004-2016, against current and future requirement for number of places.