Applied Biometrics for Plant Sciences

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Applied Biometrics for Plant Sciences

PlSci 547 - Spring 2007

Take Home Test#1

Due by Friday 2, 2007 before 9:30am

Answer all 6 questions

A total of 100 points are available

All answers should be typed 1.5 row spacing

Grade points from each question are shown in

bold square parenthesis

Late return of answers will be penalized by 10% per day late

Unless a late return has been previously agreed

1. Super Bowl XLI will take place in Florida on February 4th 2007 where the illustrious Indianapolis Colt will challenge the Chicago Bears for the world championship of football. Actually, the world championship of football is called the World Cup and is held every 4 years with almost every world country competing in the competition, whereas the Super Bowl is a world championship competition where only US teams can participate. In retrospect it should stay that way, we let other countries compete in the World Basketball Championship and see what happened, we lost!

Anyhow, at the kick off to the Super Bowl, eleven players from each side will face off against each other. What is the probability that one, or more, of the players that start the game will have their birthday on February 4th? [4 points].

What is the probability that any two players on the field share a common birthday? [4 points].

How many Super Bowls would you need to watch to be 80% certain that two players in the kick off teams would share a birthday? [4 points].

Okay, now imagine the scenario, the game is coming to a close and despite being the better team on the field, Indianapolis Colts are just 12 points behind and Payton Manning is driving towards the Chicago goal line with 50 seconds left in the 4th quarter, and only one time out left. After two first down on first and ten, The Colts are first and ten on the 16th yard line, with 36 seconds to play. The snap is up and Manning scrambles to his right fumbling, stumbling, at the point of being sacked he launches a bomb, caught by Marvin Harrison – Touch Down! They decide to go for a two-point conversion. The snap is directly to Adai, who runs it in for the conversion. The excitement is a fever pitch. Adam Viniteri, the Colts field kicker, is generally regarded as the best kicker in football. He lines up for the onside kick. It’s is up, it’s tipped and caught by Simpson. Time is rapidly running out, he laterals to Watson who rumbles to the Bears 45 yard line. Twelve seconds left, and one time out. First and ten, the snap, Manning steps back, he’s looks left, looks right, no none is open so he dropis the ball off to Adai, who is finally pulled down at the 38 yard line. Time out! With 1 second on the game clock. The field goal would be from 56 yards out. Adam Viniteri looks calm as he walks to the huddle. Over his career Viniteri is 314 of 387. He’s only ever missed 14 times from over 55 yards, but 10 for these were, like now, on outside fields. This year, he is 5 for 8 from over 50 yards and 39 for 47 overall on the season. He always kicks better with the wind on his back, but he’s kicking into the wind on this attempt. Given this information what is the probability that Adam Viniteri will kick a game winning field goals and that the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl XLI? [4 points].

1. Fifty farmers in eastern Washington and northern Idaho took part in a survey conducted by the USDA in 2006. Each grower was asked a number of questions relating to the previous growing season, but the most important question was to present the average wheat yield on the farm for the past year. This yield data (bu/acre) is presented below:

70 / 65 / 89 / 77 / 67 / 83 / 94 / 77 / 85 / 83
77 / 60 / 47 / 88 / 79 / 82 / 84 / 70 / 92 / 90
55 / 70 / 77 / 51 / 92 / 45 / 50 / 76 / 59 / 82
86 / 79 / 88 / 69 / 70 / 64 / 82 / 100 / 93 / 75
85 / 89 / 91 / 75 / 66 / 53 / 93 / 84 / 80 / 79

Given that the information collected above is representative of the farming community in the area, what is the probability that a farmer selected at random would have an average wheat yield greater than 97.5 bu/acre? [4 points].

What is the probability that a farmer will produce greater than 69 Bu/acre but less than 87.5 Bu/acre? [4 points].

The input costs to grow wheat in the region (including fertilizer, pesticides, fuel, wear and tear, etc) is $245/acre The price of wheat last year was $4.58/bu. at the farm gate. If a farmer fails to gross a profit he’ll go bankrupt. What proportion of farmers in the area will go bankrupt? [5 points].

A new one ton truck costs $34,325. Given that each farm must be the same size in area and that 20%of the farmers (the ones with the highest wheat returns) in the region turn enough profit to buy a new one ton truck. How many acres would each farm need to be? [5 points].

1. The Canola, Rapeseed & Mustard Breeding program have just received a whooping $2m grant to develop biodiesel cultivars for countries world wide. Part of this new venture involves shipping breeding lines (and cultivars) to different countries for agronomic testing. It is a know fact that 23 canola seed samples in every 1,123 crops grown are infected with Sclerotinia and that wild mustard volunteers are found on average in 1.23% of seed samples. Thirty seed samples are inspected by the USDA before they will issue a phytosanitary certificate allowing the seed to be exported. An export seed sample will fail certification if three or more of the 30 samples are found to test positive for Sclerotinia or if 2 or more of the 30 samples tested contain wild mustard seeds. What proportion of cultivars that apply for phytosanitary certificates will be turned down and hence can’t be sent overseas? [12 points].

1. Two potato cultivars (‘Russet Burbank’ and ‘Ranger Russet’) were grown in a properly designed experiment in Moscow and AberdeenIdaho. The Moscow site was rain fed, while the Aberdeen site was irrigated. Each cultivar was grown with four different levels of nitrogen applied (50, 100, 150, and 200 units/N/acre). Nitrogen was applied before planting (Pre-plant) and in split applications throughout the season (Split). Below are the data collected on total tuber yield from each treatment combinantion (sacks/acre).

Cultivar / N / Moscow / Aberdeen
Pre-plant / Split / Pre-plant / Split
R.Burbank / 50 / 140 / 156 / 194 / 212
100 / 160 / 164 / 196 / 234
150 / 161 / 176 / 199 / 256
200 / 140 / 179 / 203 / 269
R. Ranger / 50 / 87 / 120 / 201 / 189
100 / 90 / 134 / 225 / 193
150 / 85 / 156 / 236 / 194
200 / 80 / 180 / 259 / 196

Summarize the above data in the form of a Results and Discussion section of a MS thesis. Your answer can’t be loner than two pages of text, excluding any tables and figures you might include. [34 points].

5.Chose any computer software package that you have used and become familiar with. Indicate how you use this software in your research/job. Outline all the advantages of the package that you like and indicate deficiencies that could be added to the software to make if more useful to your application. Outline all the features you would request be included in a computer software system specifically designed for your own specific research, and indicate why each component would be desired. Keep your answer to one page in length.[10 points].

6.Outline the goals of your graduate student research and indicate how you think attending this biometrics class will help you in completing your degree. [10 points].