Weapons
Proliferation
and Arms
Control
Computer Lab Assignment:
Use the interactive timeline on “Nuclear Proliferation” on the Council of Foreign Relations’ websiteto answer the questions on the handouts provided.
To get to the timeline, click on the link below. In the “Nuclear Proliferation” screen click on “Overview” to watch the introductory video-clip. After watching the
video, click on “Timeline” Work you way through all
four segments of the timeline to access the information
you’ll need to answer the questions.
The Cold War Nuclear
Arms Race 1945-1991
The Cold War Nuclear Arms Race
Arms Race:
- A competition between two or
more countries in the building
up (escalation) of weapons.
- A cycle of action and reaction
motivated by fear.
Nuclear Arms Race… First Step
1945U.S. created the world’s
first atomic bomb
(A-bomb) and used the
weapon against Japan to
end WWII.
Hiroshima, 1945
The First Atomic Bombs
Nuclear Arms Race … Next Steps
1949Soviet Union’s
first A-bomb
test.
1952U.S. tested first hydrogen-bomb
(H-bomb).
1953Soviet Union’s first H-bomb test.
H-bombs
(Thermonuclear Weapons)
- Fusion bombs measured
in megatons
- More difficult to create
than A-bombs.
Only the five original
members of the nuclear
club have tested and now
possess these weapons.
Nuclear Arms Race… Next Step
1957First ICBM (Intercontinental
Ballistic Missile)
deployed by the
USSR.
1958First ICBM
deployed by the
U.S.
Nuclear Arms Race… Next Steps
- 1960sNuclear missiles were
put on submarines.
Dramatic increase in
stockpiles ofnuclear
weapons.
ICBMs equipped with
multiple warheads.
The Concept of Deterrence
Nuclear Deterrence During the Cold War
To use nuclear weapons became unthinkable. Their primary purpose was to preventwar.
The threat of retaliation using nuclear weapons was intended to deter or discourage either side from launching a first strike.
Doctrine was called MAD(“mutual assured destruction”).
The Nuclear Triad
Nuclear Triad: U.S. nuclear weapons placed on land-based ICBMs, on Trident submarines, and on bombers (B-52s and B-2s).
Nuclear Bomb Design
Building a Nuclear Weapon
Three steps:
Making bomb fuel.
(most difficult part)
Building a nuclear
warhead.
Developing a reliable
delivery system (like
a missile).
Making Bomb Fuel
Plutonium Reprocessing
Uranium Enrichment
Nuclear Proliferation
Nuclear Proliferation
Nuclear Proliferation
The spread of nuclear
weapons.
The “Nuclear Club”
The countries with nuclear
weapons:
•5 original members
•9 members today
Original Nuclear Weapons States
The United States1945
The Soviet Union1949
U.K.1952
France1961
China1964
Additional Nuclear Weapons States
India1974 /1998
Pakistan1998
North Korea2006
Israel (Undeclared)1967
The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) 1968
Effort to stop any more countries from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Only five countries permitted to possess nuclear weapons.
The five existing nuclear weapons states agreed to:
1. Keep weapons or weapons technology from non-nuclear powers.
2. Reduce and eventually eliminate their own nuclear arsenals.
Non-Weapons States under the NPT
Non-weapons states
agreed never to acquire
nuclear weapons.
Guaranteed access to
nuclear technology for
the peaceful production
of nuclear power in
return.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Recent Signatories to the NPT
Joined as non-nuclear states
when Soviet Union broke up:
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Ended active nuclear weapons
programs:
Taiwan
South Africa
Brazil
Argentina
Algeria
Iraq
Libya
Non-signatories to the NPT
Only three countries have
refused to join the NPT:
India
Pakistan
Israel
North Korea withdrew
from the NPT in 2003.
U.S.-Indian Civilian Nuclear Cooperation Agreement 2008
For decades India has been
subjected to tough sanctions
for not signing the NPT and
has been denied access to
civilian nuclear technology
and materials.
Bush administration agreed
to recognize India as a
legitimate nuclear weapons
state and lift NPT mandated
trade restrictions.
U.S. – Indian Agreement…
- Controversial decision:
Gives India access to
nuclear commerce even
though it hasn’t signed
the NPT.
U.S. companies can now
sell nuclear fuel,
technology, and reactors
to India.
U.S. – Indian Agreement…
Nuclear Testing and
Nuclear Test Ban Treaties
Nuclear Testing 1945-1998
U.S. Test Sites
New Mexico
South Pacific
Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty 1963
Prohibits the testing of
nuclear weapons in the
atmosphere, in space, or
underwater.
Permits underground
tests only.
Signed and ratified by
both U.S. and USSR.
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
(CTBT) 1996
Prohibits all testing of
nuclear weapons,
including underground
tests.
President Clinton was
The first world leader to
sign the treaty. Sent to
Senate for ratification.
CTBT continued
1999 ratification vote
failed in the Senate by
a vote of 51-48.
- All Democrats voted
for the treaty and all
but four Republicans
were opposed.
CTBT continued
CTBT continued
Obama pledged during campaign to “aggressively” pursue CTBT’s ratification.
Current Status of CTBT
CTBT will not be in force
until all “nuclear capable”
states ratify it.
180 countries have signed
the CTBT, but nine nuclear
capable states have
NOT RATIFIED the treaty.
Reading Assignment on the CTBT
Read the provided newspaper article, NY Times editorial and Wall Street Journal op-ed piece on the merits of ratifying the CTBT and answer the questions on the accompanying handout
You will be expected to know the arguments in support of the CTBT and the arguments against
the treaty’s ratification.
Should the U.S. Ratify the CTBT?
Reading Assignment Review
YES!
Would make it harder for
non-weapons states to obtain nuclear weapons.
- Would make it harder for nuclear weapons states to develop new types of nuclear weapons.
- Don’t need to test in order to ensure safety and reliability of existing weapons.
NO!
No guarantee that clandestine tests will be detected.
Rogue states can’t be trusted to comply.
Reliability of aging U.S. weapons still can’t be guaranteed without testing.
CTBT continued
Bilateral Disarmament
Arms Control vs. Disarmament
Arms Control Treaties:Limit or regulate the number or the types of weapons a nation can possess.
Disarmament Treaties: Actually reduce the existing number of weapons or ban certain types of weapons altogether.
Bilateral Disarmament Treaties Between U.S. and Russia
START I and II Treaties (1990s)
(Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties)
First agreements to reduce
strategic nuclear weapons
(to 3,000 each by 2007).
Strategic weapons are long-range weapons.
Also eliminated all multi-warhead land-based missiles (including the MX).
Bilateral Disarmament (2002)
Bilateral Disarmament (2002)
Treaty of Moscow
(Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty)
Requires U.S. and Russia to reduce their deployed strategic warheads by two thirds
- to between 1,700 and 2,200 by the end of 2012.
Doesn’t require the destruction of any weapons -- allows warheads to be put in storage instead.
Strategic vs. Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Strategic Nuclear Weapons:
Long-range weapons usually with destructive power over one megaton.
Carried on ICBMs, bombers, and subs.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons:
Short-range weapons designed for use on the battlefield.
Destructive power ranges from 0.1 kiloton to 1.0 megatons.
Not covered by any arms control treaties.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Bilateral Disarmament… What’s Next?
Missile Defense
Missile Defense
ABM Treaty (Anti-Ballistic Missile) 1972
Limited U.S. and Soviet
anti-missile defenses to
one site each. Why?
Goal was to maintain
MAD.
Bush withdrew U.S. from
ABM Treaty in 2001.
Bush’s Missile Defense Plan
A limited missile defense
system to defend U.S. and
Europe against missiles
launched by states such as
North Korea or Iran.
Interceptor missiles
based in Alaska, California,
ships at sea, and Poland.
Interceptors hit and destroy
incoming missiles in
mid-flight.
Obama and Missile Defense
Obama and Arms Control
Assignment (Groupwork)
Read the provided articles to determine the positions and actions taken by Obama (as a candidate for president and as president) on issues related to nuclear proliferation and arms control. Answer the questions on the accompanying handout.
Obama and Nuclear Weapons
Assignment Review
As candidate, Obama
proposed goal of
eliminating all nuclear
weapons in the world.
- Said he’d reduce U.S.
stockpile of nuclear
weapons.
- Also pledged to end
production of fissile
material and not to
build any newnuclear
weapons if elected.
Obama and Nuclear Weapons
Obama’s Actions as President …
Has pushed for stronger
sanctions on nations
that violate the NPT.
- Scrapped Bush missile
defense plan in Eastern
Europe.
Cut program to develop
new nuclear warhead
(the RRW).
Obama’s Actions as President
- Reached preliminary
agreement with Russia
on further reductions
of nuclear arsenals.
Negotiations continue
on final agreement to
replace START treaty.
Global Disarmament Treaties
Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)
Biological Weapons
Biological Weapons
Biological Weapons Convention
1972
Prohibits the development,
production, possession, or
use of biological weapons.
Ratified by U.S. and 162
other countries.
Problem: No inspections
- so no way to enforce or to
verify compliance.
Bush Administration’s Position on Biological Weapons Convention
2001 protocol requiring
inspections of military
and pharmaceutical
facilities rejected by
Bush.
Said inspections would
expose U.S. secrets to
enemies and rivals.
Obama Administration’s Position
On Biological Weapons Convention
Wants to “revitalize”
Biological Weapons
Convention, but will
not seek negotiations
on verification and
international enforce-
ment.
- Same position that
Bush took.
Chemical Weapons
Chemical Weapons
Chemical Weapons Convention
1995
Bans the production,
possession, and use of
poisonous gases and
other chemical weapons.
Signers must submit to
rigorous inspections to
verify their compliance.
Ratified by the U.S.
Chemical Weapons Convention
Anti-personnel Landmines
Anti-personnel Landmines
Landmines: The Problem Today
- More than 70 million land
mines are strewn across 90
countries around the world.
- Last year 1,200 people were
killed and 3,800 wounded
by landmines.
- Over 80% of the victims
are civilians; between one
third to one half of those
killed are children.
Landmine Victims
International Campaign to Ban Landmines
2007 Nobel Prize Recipient
Ottawa Landmine Treaty 1997
Treaty Provisions
Total ban on production,
export, and use of
anti-personnel mines.
Provides funding for the
removal or existing land
mines.
Provides aid to the victims
of land mines.
Landmine Treaty: U.S. Position
President Clinton did
NOT sign the treaty and
the Bush administration
didn’t support it either.
Landmine Treaty: U.S. Position
Why hasn’t the U.S. joined
the landmine treaty?
- U.S. military opposes the
treaty.
- Military uses landmines along
border between North and
South Korea to protect South
Korea, and the U.S. troops
there, from an invasion by
North Korea.
Progress since 1999 (10 years)
- 156countrieshave now signed
the ban on land mines.
2.2 million antipersonnel mines,
250,000 anti-vehicle mines, and
17 million other explosives have
been removed.
- U.S. no longer deploys, exports,
or manufactures antipersonnel
land mines.
U.S. Demining Efforts
U.S. leads the world in money spent on removing landmines.
The Obama Administration’s Position on the Landmine Treaty
Nov. 2009 – Obama
administration
announced decision
that it would not sign
the landmine treaty.
- Human rights and
disarmament
groups have reacted
with shock and anger.
Current Proliferation Concerns
Assignments
Use the provided packet of articles to complete the handout “Chronology of North Korea and Nuclear Weapons.”
Read the four Choices options on how to deal with North Korea. Rank the options from best to worst and use the facts and arguments provided to prepare a defense
of your decision.
North Korea
North Korea
1994 “Agreed Framework”
- Threatened to withdraw
from NPT.
- Signed agreement with
U.S. to end plutonium-
based nuclear weapons
program.
Received food and energy
aid in return.
North Korea
2002-2003
Labeled as part of “Axis
of Evil” by President Bush.
Confronted by U.S. with
evidence of uranium
enrichment.
Expelled IAEA inspectors
and withdrew from NPT.
North Korea
2005
- Admits to possessing
nuclear weapons.
2006
Conducted first atomic
bomb test.
Sanctions imposed by
UN Security Council.
North Korea
2007
- Agreed to dismantling of
nuclear weapons program
by end of year.
Began disabling nuclear
reactor at Yongbyon.
Did NOT agree to give up
existing nuclear weapons.
North Korea
2008
Negotiations collapsed
over verification issues
before Bush left office.
2009
- North Korea has acted
increasingly belligerent
and is now threatening
to expand its nuclear
arsenal.
North Korea
2009: A Year of Rising
Tensions
- Conducted long-range missile
test.
Quit six party talks.
Restarted plutonium reactor.
Expelled UN inspectors.
Conducted second nuclear test .
Now boasts of having uranium
enrichment program.
- Threatening to expand nuclear arsenal if U.S. doesn’t agree to bilateral talks.
The U.S. and U.N. Response to North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program:
cARROTS
Food aid and energy assistance (Clinton and Bush).
Lifting of some U.S. sanctions (Bush).
Removal from U.S. terrorism blacklist (Bush).
Promise to move towards
normalization (Bush)
STICKS
U.N. Security Council sanctions.
Arms embargo (UN).
U.S. sanctions .
Cut-off of energy aid (Bush).
U.S. and UN Response 2009
Obama renewed U.S. sanctions
against North Korea, declaring
that its nuclear program posed
a national security risk to the
United States.
The UN Security Council also
expanded its sanctions with a
ban on all weapons exports from
North Korea and most arms
imports.
Obama and North Korea
Renewed U.S. sanctions.
Supports stronger UN
sanctions if North Korea
doesn’t return to six-
party talks.
- No new incentives.
- No bilateral talks until NK
returns to six-party talks.
Iran
U.S.-Iranian Relations
Decades of hostility between U.S. and Iran since Iran’s Islamic revolution in 1979.
Iran’s Government
Hardline clerics control Iran’s government
(Islamic theocracy / oligarchy).
Iran’s Nuclear Program
Secret uranium enrichment
program uncovered in 2002
- kept hidden from IAEA
inspectors for 18 years!
The U.S. and other Western
powers believe Iran has a
covert program to develop
nuclear weapons.
Iran’s Nuclear Program
Iran denies it seeks
nuclear weapons.
- Says it’s uranium
enrichment is for
peaceful production
of nuclear energy.
Iran has signed the
NPT and argues it
has the right to do
this.
Why Fear a Nuclear –Armed Iran?
- Radical Islamic government.
- Regime is hostile towards the
U.S.
- State-sponsor of terrorism.
- Regime is hostile to Israel.
Iran’s president has vowed to
“wipe Israel off the map.”
Iran and the UN
Bush and Iran
2007 National Intelligence Estimate
Concluded that Iran
had a nuclear weapons
program, but halted it
in 2003.
- Represented consensus
of all 16 U.S. intelligence
agencies.
- Assessment today is that
Iran is continuing its
nuclear weapons program
on a smaller scale.
Obama and Iran
Recent Developments
September, 2009
Second – and secret –
uranium enrichment
facility exposed.
- Heightened suspicions
about intent of Iran’s
nuclear program.
Recent Developments
October, 2009
First direct talks between
U.S. and Iran.
December 2009
Iran rejected UN proposal to
send its low-grade enriched
uranium to a third country
for processing into fuel for
civilian use.
Iran tested its most advanced
missile: one capable of hitting
Israel and parts of Europe.
Most Recent Actions By Iran
Has Diplomacy with Iran Failed?
What’s Next?
Iran in Turmoil Today
Disputed reelection
of Almadinejad in
June, 2009 has led to
widespread protests
throughout Iran.
Government brutality
against protestors has
sparked massive and
violent demonstrations
against the government.
Protest video
NORTH KOREA AND IRAN
Nuclear Proliferation
States of Concern
States of Concern
North Korea
1994
Crisis and “Agreed Framework”
- North Korea threatened to withdraw from NPT.
- Crisis resolved when NK
signed agreement to end
plutonium-based nuclear
weapons program.
Received food and energy
aid in return.
Jan. 2002
Bush’s “Axis of Evil” Speech
After 9-11, North Korea
branded as part of “Axis
of Evil” by President
Bush.
Bush accused North
Korea of seeking WMD
and vowed to prevent
North Korea from
acquiring such weapons.
Oct. 2002
Collapse of Agreed Framework
Confronted by U.S. with
evidence of covert program
to enrich uranium.
Expelled IAEA inspectors
from North Korea.
Withdrew from the NPT
in Jan., 2003.
2006
First Nuclear Weapons Test
2005
- Admits to possessing
nuclear weapons.
October, 2006
Conducted first test of
nuclear weapon.
Sanctions imposed by
UN Security Council.
Proliferation Concerns
The U.S. and U.N. Response to North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program:
cARROTS
Food aid and energy assistance (Clinton and Bush).
Lifting of some U.S. sanctions (Bush).
Removal from U.S. terrorism blacklist (Bush).
Promise to move towards
normalization (Bush)
STICKS
U.N. Security Council sanctions.
Arms embargo (UN).
U.S. sanctions .
Cut-off of energy aid (Bush).
Six Party Talks
Involved:
North Korea
U.S.
Russia
China
South Korea
Japan
Goal: Peaceful resolution of stand-off with N.K.
Results: Not much progress 2003-2007
2007
Breakthrough at Six Party Talks!
- North Korea agreed to
dismantle its nuclear
weapons program by
end of year.
Disabled plutonium
reactor at Yongbyon.
Did NOT agree to give up
existing nuclear weapons.
Collapse of 2007 Agreement
2008
Negotiations collapsed
over verification issues
before Bush left office.
Obama’s Problem Now
2009
A Year of Rising Tensions
North Korea …
Quit six party talks.
Restarted plutonium reactor.
Expelled UN inspectors.
Conducted second nuclear test .
Boasted of having uranium
enrichment program.
- Threatened to expand nuclear arsenal.
- Conducted long-range missile
test.
2009
UN Security Council Response
The UN Security Council
expanded its sanctions on
North Korea.
Imposed arms embargo on
North Korea which bans all
weapons exports and most
weapons imports.
Obama’s Position on North Korea
Obama renewed U.S. sanctions
against North Korea, declaring
that its nuclear program posed
a national security risk to the
United States.
Wants stronger UN sanctions
if North Korea doesn’t return to
six-party talks.
- No new incentives.
- No bilateral talks until NK
returns to six-party talks.
2010
Latest North Korean Demands
Wants peace treaty with U.S.
ending the Korean War.
Wants all UN sanctions lifted.