2011 CONFERENCE
New Zealand’s Demographic Futures: Where to from here?
School of Engineering, The University of Auckland 28 and 29 November 2011
ABSTRACTS /
POPULATION ASSOCIATION OF NEW ZEALAND
Te Roopu Whaka Waihanga Iwi O Aotearoa
Professor Wei Li
School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University
Counting Everyone in the Country: US Census and International Comparisons
With accelerated globalization trend and the increasing volume and diversifying origins of international migrants worldwide, it is paramount that a country’s census counts everyone in the country once, only once, and in the right place. The western receiving countries of large international migrant flows in particular, face the increasing challenge of new comers not familiar with or limited proficiency of official language of the land. All countries are also facing the challenge of reducing costs for censuses while aiming at increasing accuracy. Therefore, it is important to learn from each other’s experiences and make sure our census operations are best reflecting the nation’s population and create a just process for all population groups.
This paper will
·  trace the history and contemporary operations and products of the US decennial censuses, recently implemented American Community Survey, and other US Census Bureau conducted surveys;
·  provide some preliminary comparison with some other developed countries; in particular, how variables dealing with people's identities are constructed and used in enumerations internationally;
·  assess the effectiveness of US Census Bureau’s efforts in outreaching minority and immigration populations, especially those with ‘Limited English Proficiencies’, based in part on the author’s volunteer work for the Bureau.
Professor Natalie Jackson
Director, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato
Vice President, PANZ
The Demographic Forces shaping New Zealand’s Future
This paper outlines the key demographic forces shaping New Zealand’s future. It ranges broadly across birth rates, life expectancy and migration to show how this converging demography will result in a regionally-disparate future. It identifies a migration-driven bite in New Zealand’s age structure across the young adult ages that is pronounced in non-urban areas, and argues that while rural regions have long lost young adults and sun-belt regions gained older, what differs is that this phenomenon is now occurring alongside population ageing, rendering such age structures no longer conducive to growth. The converging trends will not only make responding to baby boomer retirement more difficult but will increase competition for workers and push up labour and consumption costs. With the exception of larger urban areas and some retirement zones, it shows that sub national growth in much of New Zealand has already ended and that this scenario will continue to unfold until zero growth or population decline embraces all but the major urban areas. This is despite a national growth rate which is currently near equal the annual global growth rate. The paper posits that it is time to re-evaluate the question ‘when does population growth ‘end’?’
Dr. Jeremy Gardiner
Chief Executive, Te Runanga o Ngati Awa
Title TBC
Ross Barker
past Queensland and National President of the Australian Population Association
Assistant Government Statistician, Demography and Planning. Queensland Treasury
Australia’s Demographic Futures
Desi Small-Rodriguez and Martin Wall
Drivers of Māori wellbeing: An investigation of the New Zealand General Social Survey
Improving the wellbeing of Māori iwi, hapū, whānau and individuals is a key policy priority of Te Puni Kōkiri (Ministry of Māori Development). Setting the agenda for addressing this priority requires accurate and relevant data on the drivers of Māori wellbeing. While existing research has identified various determinants of wellbeing across societies, there has been relatively little examination of the relevancy of these factors for indigenous populations. In the New Zealand context, research on Māori wellbeing is largely rooted in the saliency of Māori culture as part of a holistic approach to improving health outcomes. A close examination of the relationship between Māori and non-Māori populations in official indicators of wellbeing remains a significant gap. Comparing data for Māori and non-Māori in the 2008 New Zealand General Social Survey (NZGSS), we analyse whether factors or influences on wellbeing differ for these two populations. Statistics New Zealand’s analysis of the NZGSS identified determinants of positive wellbeing for the whole sample, including being female, having good mental and physical health, and having a university degree, to name a few. Using an ordered choice model we compare Māori and non-Māori across the same independent variables with the dependent variable being the reported level of life satisfaction from the NZGSS.
Our findings suggest clear evidence of differences in the variables that drive wellbeing for non-Māori and Māori, particularly with regard to household income, job satisfaction, and expression of identity. A limitation of the analysis is the small Māori subsample (N=964/8,000), resulting in some statistically insignificant differences between groups. The small Māori subsample in the NZGSS and general lack of robust survey data on Māori wellbeing highlights the need for more primary statistical data collection on Māori.
Natalie Jackson
Māori and the [potential] collateral demographic dividend
This paper outlines a recently articulated concept in the demographic literature known as the ‘demographic dividend’, and connects it with key features of Māori and non- Māori demography. The dividend arises as each population passes through a certain stage of its demographic transition, and the maximum proportion enters the key working and income-earning ages. The paper argues that while the dividend is conventionally held to have two components, there may be a third which will generate particular advantages for Māori. This component will arise in both absolute and relative terms as the relatively youthful Māori population co-exists alongside its structurally older counterpart. The paper proposes that the first such dividend may have already passed, but there remain many opportunities to ensure that its second and third windows of opportunity are opened.
Wendy Henwood, Remana Henwood, Hine Tohu, Irihapeti Morgan and Helen Moewaka Barnes
“Working for the river will lift the health of the people”: Maori environmental community action and community health and wellbeing.
Te Taio o Utakura is a Maori community environmental group that has focused on the mauri of Lake Omapere and the Utakura River in the Hokianga. Our research is exploring characteristics of and changes in our waterways in the Utakura Valley and investigating the roles of these taonga on the health and wellbeing of mana whenua. The main question we are addressing is: what are the impacts of water quality in the Utakura River on the health and wellbeing of local people? To advance this dual focus we have taken a Kaupapa Maori community action approach in which we are working from the flaxroots to measure and monitor key indicators in relation to the water, and gather social, demographic and contextual data on the health and wellbeing of mana whenua. In this presentation we discuss the processes and practices of the research team (which is led by mana whenua but includes allied and contracted researchers) as we collect data, analyse trends, manage research relations, build capability and advance our objectives. We will talk about the intended and incidental ‘multiplier effects’ of the work as a reflection of a powerful convergence between community aspirations and social research goals. The combination of process and outcome is vital to the greater achievements of enhancing the mauri of our taonga in sustainable ways, ma uta ki tai.
Tahu Kukutai, Manuhuia Barcham and Jenine Cooper.
Theorising the global Maori diaspora
Abstract to come.
Charles Crothers and Ali Gale.
Changing patterns of residential differentiation in Auckland
This paper will review the range of descriptive and more analytical studies already carried out into changing patterns of residential differentiation in Auckland and will concentrate on analysing the residential differentiation pattern as revealed by the 1996 and 2006 censuses and the spatial pattern of change between these two time-points. In particular, there will be an analysis of the effects of the Asian in-migration on other aspects of residential change in Auckland.
Alison Reid
Auckland’s Demographic Futures
Abstract to come.
Christoph Brodnik.
Perceptions of sustainability in Auckland’s residential housing market.
In New Zealand, most people are urban dwellers. Auckland is the fastest growing region and projections for the future development suggest that the demand for households is projected to increase by about 40% by 2026. Household demand and the rapid increase in household numbers, often manifested as urban sprawl, can be related to population growth and reduction in average household size. This is accompanied by a trend of increasing average floor size, intensifying the demand for land, materials, and other resources while reducing the efficiency of resource use per capita. Furthermore the typical Auckland home shows limited or non‐existent levels of insulation and is associated with being damp and cold. These substandard houses have been identified to be a major public health issue.
This paper describes the perceived importance of sustainable features for residential house buyers focusing on design, energy, water and resource consumption related to building materials. This research investigates how these features influence house buyers’ choices and whether the drivers are rational (cost saving) or emotional (value transmission).
Unsurprisingly the research found that very little importance is given to sustainable features of houses. Home buyers do not perceive sustainable features as a beneficial asset of their house, and the reduction in operational cost opposed to additional investment cost is not an incentive. This can be related to very low costs of energy and water in New Zealand, the fast housing turnover, and the fear of property overcapitalisation. Value transmission related to sustainability was not identified as a driver, and associations towards sustainable housing are sometimes negative. Home buyers were found to be most receptive to health and comfort related issues. The uptake of health and comfort related issues have already happened with different government campaigns. However, a set of perceived barriers hinders the widespread adoption of sustainable features. A common perception is that there is a lack of political commitment, and stringent district plans hindering the implementation of sustainable features. At a social level, barriers are grounded in the way people value and live in their home which reflects in governance, business and the everyday life of homeowners.
To understand the network of barriers is the first step to finding solutions. Successful implementation models can be found in Europe where the housing stock and living conditions are improved. Creative business models have been implemented and shown to facilitate the uptake of sustainable features in the residential housing market. By analysing the frameworks for sustainable housing overseas, the research aspires to recommend action for improving the Auckland housing market, by facilitating a transition towards sustainable development.
Jamie Newell.
Comparison of the 2006 population and employment distribution by labour market sub-catchment type of Auckland, Melbourne and Christchurch labour market catchments
This paper explores the distribution of the 2006 population, employment and selected industries within the greater Auckland, Melbourne and Christchurch urban areas as defined by labour market catchment classification carried out across the two countries. Each urban lab our market catchment has been classified into constituent labour market subcatchments using a standardised methodology based on 2006 travel to work commuting patterns from the 2006 census. The share and composition of the CBD’s in each urban catchment is compared with that for the remainder and other types of labour market subcatchment.
While Auckland and Melbourne are at different scales, the ratios of number of labour market subcatchments, share of population and area of the CBD relative to the urban catchment as a whole similar. Auckland has a larger proportion of its population resident in the CBD than Melbourne. Greater Christchurch represents a different type of urban labour market structure than the other two cities with a more dispersed population distribution. The role of the CBD as an employment and population hub now and in the future is discussed.
Mansoor Khawaja and Bill Boddington.
Is working later our future? Older New Zealanders in the labour force
Incipient population ageing and its likely implications for future social, financial and resource planning have generated wide-spread debate in New Zealand. Given perennial skill shortages in New Zealand, there is also considerable interest in senior Kiwis' transition strategies for retirement, their labour force participation, and the likely impact on the ageing of the workforce, and the work environment. This makes the study of future retirement and employment patterns of senior citizens an important theme within the discipline of economic demography. Drawing on the census data, an initial investigation had highlighted a significant surge in both full-time and part-time employment among older New Zealand men and women during the closing stages of the 20th century through to the early years of the new millennium. This follow-up paper extends the previous study's findings by focusing on the industries of employment and occupations of older workers. The analysis has been limited to the period 1996- 2006 due to statistical constraints, notably changes in the industrial classification used by Statistics New Zealand. During this brief interval, the labour force participation rate of persons aged 65+ years almost doubled from 9 percent to 17 percent in 2006, with the youngest superannuitants (aged 65- 69 years) reaching a high figure of 34 percent (or one in three). The number of 65+ persons in labour force climbed from 38 thousand to 83 thousand - an increase of 45 thousand, or 120 percent. The central aim here is to identify major industries that provided greater job opportunities for older workers, as well as key professions/occupations in which skill shortages intensified demand for older workers in various sectors of the economy.
Susan St John and Claire Dale.
Spreading the costs of an ageing population
The persistent gains in longevity at older ages: “ageing of the elderly” along with the retirement of large baby-boom cohorts, imply sharply rising costs associated with old age care especially from around 2030 when the large baby-boom cohorts begin to swell the ranks of those over 85.
While social security and means-tested social assistance programs for long-term care protect the living standards of the poorest in countries like the United States, Australia and New Zealand, middle-income groups face under-appreciated risks, such as outliving capital or needing expensive long-term care. Finding new ways to apportion the costs of the old is made more urgent if, as is likely, the working age population becomes less willing to bear these costs either indirectly as taxpayers or directly as the children of long-lived parents in residential care. This is even more critical as private pensions become less common and user pay elements increase in healthcare financing. Seldom discussed in the New Zealand context is whether the over 65 year olds as a group should both bear more of their own costs, and spread those costs among themselves by means of insurance. This approach to funding puts more emphasis on intra-generational cost sharing, and by so doing may lesson concerns about intergenerational conflict. New Zealand may be in a unique position to design new policies which better share the costs.