Appendix

Fig. 5 Percentage change in harvested area in 2030 compared to 2007 under the land expansion scenario according to FAO (Alexandratos and Bruinsma2012)

Fig. 5

Table 2 Elasticities of transformation in constant elasticity of transformation function

Source: Abler 2000 and Salhofer 2000 used in the OECD’s PEM model; The OECD model only covers developed countries plus Mexico, Turkey, and South Korea. Therefore, we had to assume certain similarities for several countries. CET1 denotes the nest between forest and agricultural land, CET2 the nest between cropland and pasture land, CET3 the nest between land for different perennial and annual crops. CET4 is only used for one model specification; it denotes the elasticity of substitution between land for annual crop.

CET1 / CET2 / CET3 / CET4
GER / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
GBR / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
FRA / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
SCA / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
BEN / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
MED / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
REU / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
USA / 0.1 / 0.15 / 0.32 / 0.55
CAN / 0.05 / 0.14 / 0.32 / 0.58
ANZ / 0.05 / 0.17 / 0.3 / 0.59
JPN / 0.05 / 0.11 / 0.15 / 0.20
RUS / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
FSU / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
BRA / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
PAC / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
LAM / 0.1 / 0.11 / 0.3 / 0.59
CHN / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
IND / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
MAI / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
SEA / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.22 / 0.23
MEA / 0.05 / 0.15 / 0.24 / 0.35
AFR / 0.05 / 0.21 / 0.24 / 0.35
ROW / 0.05 / 0.11 / 0.15 / 0.20

Table 2.

Table 3 Change in agricultural prices and production under land expansion scenario in 2030 compared to baseline in percentage change

Note: PDR: paddy rice, WHT= wheat, MZE= maize, GRON= other grains, SOY= soy beans, PLM= palm fruit, RSD= rape seed, AGR= other crops, OLVS= outdoor livestock, ILVS= indoor livestock; FOD= processed food, PCM= processed meat

Price Change (%) / Quantity Change (%)
PDR / -6.2 / 4.4
WHT / -11.4 / 2.6
MZE / -15.7 / 5.8
GRON / -13.9 / 4.9
SOY / -19.9 / 7.0
PLM / -18.3 / 9.3
RSD / -12.5 / 2.1
AGR / -13.1 / 4.9
OLVS / -4.4 / 2.0
ILVS / -5.9 / 4.4
FOD / -4.4 / 3.5
PCM / -3.1 / 2.5

Table 3

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