8th Annual Security Conference
Brings Leading Experts Under
One Roof at the Fisher Institute
Leading Arabists, Israeli Air Force (IAF) officers and reservists, strategists, intelligence officers, experts on the Middle East, and consultants from Israel and overseas gathered at the Fisher Institute's Eighth Annual National Security Conference held on May 22, 2012 in Herzliya, The conference title: "Air Power Challenges in a Changing Strategic Environment," subdivided into four key sessions: The Geopolitical Context, Revival of the Symmetric Conflict, Operation Odyssey Dawn in Libya and Long Range Operations.
While the topics varied -- from Strategic and Operational Challenges to Air to Air Advanced Missiles, from the NATO operation in Libya to the Space Research and how Best to Apply it to Air Force Strategic Needs -- Iran was high on the agenda.
The Iran Game
Prof. Uzi Arad, former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister, head of the NSC, and currently lecturer at the School of Government, IDC Herzliya, kicked off the first session, by summing up the situation with Iran as "time being the name of the game."
"We have to push off Iran's uranium enrichment capability as far as possible. Israel's starting position -- to get rid of everything -- is a reasonable one, although in principle there is no objection to the civilian use of uranium enrichment."
The question becomes what types of uranium enrichment will be allowed, and therefore what types of nuclear stations can be built. "The greatest challenge we have now is to reduce Iran's capability to become a nuclear power."
To do so, Arad is convinced that Israel's only choice right now is to work hand-in-hand with the United States. "I am putting the emphasis on the US because I think that they bear the responsibility." All of the states in the region see the danger of Iran becoming a nuclear power. In light of Iran's bespeckled record of abiding agreements, the USA will have to be the enforcer and if Iran breaks the agreement "then the US will have no other choice but to use other steps."
What are these other steps? Arad believes that the US has not stated its position strongly enough. "The US has to issue stronger statements regarding the consequences of not reaching an agreement." Concomitantly, the US and the Western World have to enforce sanctions and strengthen them.
In carefully couched language, Prof. Arad also referred to Israel's options. "Israel has a breadth of options, all depending on what kind of agreement is reached, and what does it include, or for that matter, exclude. Israel's key principle must rest on distancing Iran from nuclear capability -- and holding this up against a measuring stick of whether this particular distance is effective or not."
Maj. Gen (res) Amos Yadlin, Director of INSS and former Chief of Defense Intelligence, was largely in agreement with Prof. Arad, but felt that Ahmadinejad will not be the President of Iran in 2013. "He's managed to annoy the religious leadership." Whether or no Ahmadinejad will be President of Iran did not really concern IAF Brig.-Gen Hagai Topolansky. Unlike the Iranians who are claiming that distance will prove a problem for Israel, Topolansky pooh-poohed this. "We've developed long-range capabilities in recent years to confront various threats. In the 1990's it was from Iraq, and in the 2000's the threat is from Iran." But, in the end, Topolansky was reluctant to continue any further conversations about Iran. "It is discussed too much…"
Whether or not it is discussed too much, the issue of time is critical. We may still have time -- according to Yadlin, we have a year -- but the sands are dripping fast.
Flexible, Adaptable and More Accurate
Time was also a key factor in Brig. Gen. (res.) Udi Dekel, Former Head of the Strategic Planning Division of the IDF's lecture, entitled "Strategic Changes and the Challenges of Force Employment," in which he averred that a key goal of Israel's military-political-diplomatic establishment is to: "postpone the next war."
Dekel offered a wide-ranging view of what has to be accomplished now to not only postpone the next confrontation, but also better prepare for it. There is no doubt in Dekel, or for that matter, many of the other conference speakers' minds, that the next confrontation will combine asymmetric and symmetric warfare and that to win that confrontation we must be able to create advantages that the 'other side' does not have.
Right now the 'playing field' is too balanced, in a matter of speaking. To wit: advanced technologies are easily accessible for both sides, there is difficulty in distinguishing the enemy from background noise, much of the confrontations will take place on urban or other non-conventional terrain, nation-states are becoming much weaker, and they are not the only players in the game, the new media is open, accessible and read by all, and much more.
So, how can Israel defeat these amorphous, not always easily identifiable enemies? Flexibility, adaptability and greater precision are called for in every aspect of our operations. We need to focus on "smart power as opposed to hard power."
This translates into matching intelligence-operations techniques to the enemy mode of operation, enhancing defensive operations, enabling the air force to adjust to changing battlefields (urban, nature reserves, underground). presenting the narrative of the confrontation in a more convincing way to a larger audience, and creating a situation in which there is total integration and synchronization of all efforts involved and engaged in the confrontation.
While the Israel Air Force will continue to play a key role in future confrontations, these confrontations will become more complex, creating the need for a range of well-coordinated and tactically united horizontal and vertical operations.
The Arab Spring and Israel
A good part of the afternoon session was devoted to the "New Middle East," an in-depth presentation given by Prof. Uzi Rabi, Director of Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies in Tel Aviv University.
Most of the speakers agreed that there is a new Middle East emerging, but not necessarily the one envisioned by either the protesters nor the world at large. "The Arab Spring," a term dubbed largely by the media "is not spring, but it is definitely Arab" according to Amos Yadlin. But, he was not alone in his estimation. Prof. Rabi spoke of a a new spirit that is taking hold of the Middle East, but one which is fundamentally "anarchistic."
Democracy, as per Western standards, will not be sweeping the Middle East any time soon. Rather, what Rabi predicts is a kind of "hybrid democracy" -- a combination of modern democracy with old-time rituals.
The Middle East is a complex place, with dozens of ethnic groups vying for power. Rabi envisions three separate camps eventually forming in the Middle East -- vastly different than the Middle East during the 20th century. Three blocs will emerge.
One is the Iranian bloc, a very negative force in the Middle East.
Two is a bloc of monarchies: Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Morocco. These are more moderate regimes, all of whom Israel should try and work with.
Three is the Egyptian bloc, which will largely be run by the Moslem Brotherhood. Eventually, they will build common ground with Tunisia, Libya and Syria.
Turkey, like Iran will become a power player, but as opposed to Iran, will navigate among the three different blocs.
And, how will the new Arab leaders respond to the will of the people? "In the short run, they will have to address the social and economic issues," but in the long run, Rabi, like his colleagues agreed, "it's always hard to tell in the Middle East.." which is why Israel has to prepare for any and all kinds of scenarios.
As many of Israel's leading military strategists and planners, experts and consultants, and Israel Air Force officers streamed out of the packed auditorium at the Air Force Center in Herzliya, there was a consensus that the information packed into the 12 hour day 'made a valuable contribution to the strategic arena.'