Geographical Targeting for WFP/IFAD New Project in Guangxi

Geographical Targeting for WFP/IFAD New Project in Guangxi

(WFP/IFAD China VAM Unit, 2000)

Background

According to VAM county analysis in 1997 done by Professor Paolo Santacroce and the poverty-stricken county list of the GOC issued in 1994, west of Guangxi was considered eligible for WFP/IFAD assistance and selected as the third area for WFP/IFAD project (see Map 1). In September of 1999, as requested by MOA, the preparation of Guangxi Project started and the VAM Unit was responsible for the targeting.

Targeting Process

Data

Most of the data at county level were extracted from the county database maintained by the VAM unit. Data of rural net income was collected from Guangxi Provincial Yearbook 1998.

Township data used in the targeting was collected by local authorities according to the questionnaire and requirements of the VAM Unit.

Methodologies

Clustering methodology was adopted using the Early Warning Version of ADDATI. Z-score ranking was also used for comparison.

Preliminary county analysis

VAM Unit started targeting by analyzing all the 27 matching counties (vulnerable identified by VAM and poor identified by GOC) in the west of Guangxi based on the following criteria:

•Average grain output per capita(kg)—93/97

•Growth rate of grain output per capita—90/97

•Average grain yield(ton/ha)—93/97

•Growth rate of grain yield(ton/ha)—90/97

•Meat output per capita(kg)--1997

•Growth rate of meat output per capita—90/97

•Rural net income of 1996(yuan)

•Per capita arable land(ha) – 1997

•Coefficient of variation of grain output per capita—90/97

•Coefficient of variation of grain yield—90/97

•Multi-crop Index –1997

The last four are supplementary indicators in the clustering process which will not affect county classification but will help profile interpretation.

Among the 27 counties, eight were identified as the most vulnerable, they were:

•Leyie

•Fengshan

•Lingyun

•Donglan

•Du’an

•Dahua

•Mashan

•Tiandeng

Sixteen were out of question and three were in between. (See Map 2)

Adjustment of county selection

Right after the analysis, it was found that World Bank was assisting 12 counties in that region, they were: Tianlin, Leyie, Tian’e, Nandan, Huangjiang, Luocheng, Fengshan, Tiandong, Pingguo, Tiandeng, Debao, Jingxi and Napo. Since neither WFP nor IFAD wanted to present in the World Bank counties, it was decided that VAM would run the analysis of more counties including both the matching counties and vulnerable counties according to the 1997 VAM analysis.

Final selection of counties

The second round of analysis covered 46 counties ( 27 matching and 19 VAM). The criteria were the same as those used in the previous analysis. The first run of the analysis excluded 20 counties and the second run of the remaining 26 identified six as the most needy and seven for negotiation. Later, a request from MOA containing 12 counties were received (SeeMap3).

With consideration of IFAD proposal and government’s strong request, the VAM Unit began to collect township data in 13 counties, they were: Longlin, Tianlin, Leyie, Tian’e, Nandan, Huanjiang, Luocheng, Fengshan, Debao, Napo, Tiandeng, Long’an, Daxin. All the counties were in three prefectures.

During the 1999 PMO workshop in Beihai of Guangxi, it was decided by WFP, IFAD and PMOs that ten counties would be included and Daxin, Longlin and Luocheng would be excluded ( The VAM Unit didn’t present at the discussion and in the end, some World Bank counties were included as well) .

Township targeting

Further analysis at township level was carried out for 138 townships in the ten counties according to the questionnaire prepared by the VAM Unit(See table 1).

1)Indicators:

Indicator /

Reason for selection

Rural net income of 1998 / Key to reflect vulnerability level
Arable land per capita / To show holding of assets
Average grain output per capita(kg)—96/98 / A proxy of grain availability
Coefficient of variation of grain output per capita—94/98 / A proxy of the impact of natural disasters and a reflect of food availability variation
Growth rate of grain output per capita—94/98 / Potential of self-improvement without external assistance
Meat output per capita(kg)—98 / A proxy of diversification of income and food composition
% Population below provincial poverty line—98 / Poverty prevalence in the township to show the overall level of development
Average food assistance per capita—98 / A combination of both disaster impact and local coping ability
% Income from agriculture—98 / To show dependency on agriculture
% Households with safe drinking water / To show the development of social services
% Households with electricity / As above
% Administrative villages with a clinic / As above
Number of doctors per 1000 farmers / As above

2)Results

Clustering was used to group the townships according to their similarities. 138 townships were divided into 11 clusters, out of which 5 were considered the most vulnerable (in grey).

Class / No.of
town-
ships / Rural net income
(yuan) / Per capita
arable land
(ha) / Per capita
grain output
(kg) / Coefficient
of variation
of grain output
per capita / Growth rate
of grain
output per
capita(%) / Meat output
per capita
(kg) / % of people
below provincial
poverty line

1 26 1296.373 0.068 290.262 0.054 2.966 33.681 27.470

2 21 1552.243 0.080 344.457 0.034 2.088 35.224 16.955

3 21 1584.867 0.073 306.009 0.063 3.424 41.048 7.467

4 17 1818.794 0.113 413.718 0.030 1.824 47.618 15.216

5 15 1859.240 0.072 401.780 0.035 0.945 39.733 3.174

6 11 1702.909 0.082 377.009 0.119 6.936 50.873 2.245

7 11 1807.918 0.169 464.700 0.039 1.911 41.227 13.153

8 10 2055.700 0.098 544.920 0.048 2.623 49.130 2.780

9 3 1256.667 0.064 243.933 0.187 -3.000 39.733 12.553

10 2 2598.800 0.050 299.400 0.069 -2.105 434.650 0.650

11 1 1468.000 0.063 175.100 0.286 15.500 26.000 19.720

OVERALL

PROFILE 138 1652.210 0.087 365.799 0.056 2.637 46.390 12.965

class / No.of
Town-ships / Food
assistance
per capita
(kg) / % income
from
agriculture

1 26 0.998 37.695

2 21 1.068 36.460

3 21 0.740 42.298

4 17 0.965 38.222

5 15 0.558 45.545

6 11 0.392 47.941

7 11 0.885 42.042

8 10 0.771 47.429

9 3 0.950 40.013

10 2 0.450 27.115

11 1 5.250 18.160

OVERALL

PROFILE 138 0.866 40.750

From the profile, it can be seen that low income, low per capita grain production and high percentage of population below provincial poverty line characterized the most vulnerable clusters.

Based on the above analysis and the consultation with local people and MOA, some modifications were made to the final selection and 74 townships will be included in WFP/IFAD assistance. (See Map 4 and table 2)

In addition, z-score ranking was also used in profiling of the 74 townships. The rank of vulnerability was the combination of the ranks of exposure to risks, coping ability and access to social services.

Risksper capita arable land

Coefficient of variation of grain output per capita

Coping abilityrural net income

Grain output per capita

Growth rate of grain output per capita

Meat output per capita

Access to social service% Households with safe drinking water

% Households with access to electricity

% Administrative villages with clinic

Number of rural doctors per 1000 farmers

According to the final z-score of the vulnerability of the townships, 33 townships were considered of high vulnerability, 32 moderate and 9 low vulnerability compared with other townships (See Map5).

Map 1

The three eligible areas for WFP/IFAD assistance according to the 1997 vulnerability analysis and the agreement with MOA

Map 2 Preliminary result of the analysis of 27 counties in Guangxi

Map 3 A map showing the location of counties that World Bank assisted and those proposed by MOA

Map 4 Location of the 74 townships in the 10 project counties

Map 5 Vulnerability status of the 74 project townships

Table 1 Questionnaire

no. / type of information / data of 1998
1 / no. of villages in the township
2 / no. of rural households in the township
3 / total population
4 / rural population
of which: female
5 / rural population of the age between 15-45
of which: female
6 / rural labor force
of which: female
7 / total arable land
of which: irrigated land
paddy land
dry land
on the slope>25 degree
8 / no. of villages with access to safe drinking water *1
9 / no. of villages with access to electricity *2
10 / no. of villages with access to road *3
11 / no. of villages with village clinics
12 / no. of villages with village doctors
13 / number of illiterate adult(15-45)
of which: female
14 / number of schoolage children(6-11) in rural areas
of which: female
15 / number of schoolage children enrolled in primary schools
of which: female
16 / number of drop-outs from primary school
of which: female

Table 1- II

no. / type of information / 1994 / 1995 / 1996 / 1997 / 1998
17 / total grain production
of which: maize
rice
soybean
sweet potato
18 / total grain sown area
of which: maize
rice
soybean
sweet potato
19 / production of sugarcane
20 / production of tea
21 / production of fruits
22 / production of other cash crops
23 / sown area of sugarcane
24 / sown area of tea
25 / sown area of fruits
26 / meat production
27 / rural net income per capita
of which: income of agriculture
income of husbandry
income of forestry
income of labor migration

Table 2

List of Townships Selected for Guangxi Project
(WFP/China VAM Unit,1999)
no. / county / township / no. / county / township
1 / De Bao / Jing De / 38 / Tian Lin / Ping Shan
2 / De Bao / Gu Shou / 39 / Tian Lin / Long Che
3 / De Bao / Du An / 40 / Tian Lin / Lang Ping
4 / De Bao / Xing Wang / 41 / Na Po / Ding ye
5 / De Bao / Yan Dong / 42 / Na Po / Long He
6 / De Bao / Long Guang / 43 / Na Po / De Long
7 / De Bao / Rong Hua / 44 / Na Po / Na Long
8 / De Bao / Zu Rong / 45 / Na Po / Bai Du
9 / De Bao / Long Sang / 46 / Na Po / Xia Hua
10 / Long An / Du Jie / 47 / Na Po / Bai Sheng
11 / Long An / Pu Quan / 48 / Na Po / Bai Nan
12 / Long An / Yang Wan / 49 / Le Yie / You Ping
13 / Long An / Ping Shan / 50 / Le Yie / Xin Hua
14 / Long An / Nan Yu / 51 / Le Yie / Wu Cheng
15 / Long An / Qiao Jian / 52 / Le Yie / Gan Tian
16 / Long An / Min Yang / 53 / Le Yie / Luo Sha
17 / Tian Deng / Hua Long / 54 / Le Yie / Hua Ping
18 / Tian Deng / Jin Jie / 55 / Le Yie / Ya Chang
19 / Tian Deng / Jin Yuan / 56 / Tian E / San Bao
20 / Tian Deng / Xiao Shan / 57 / Tian E / Ba Mu
21 / Tian Deng / Ning Gan / 58 / Tian E / Lao Peng
22 / Tian Deng / Fu Xin / 59 / Tian E / Na Zhi
23 / Tian Deng / Tuo Kan / 60 / Tian E / Geng Xin
24 / Tian Deng / Xiang Du / 61 / Tian E / Ba La
25 / Feng Shan / Jin Ya / 62 / Huan Jiang / Long Yan
26 / Feng Shan / Zhong Ting / 63 / Huan Jiang / Dong Xing
27 / Feng Shan / Ping Le / 64 / Huan Jiang / Chang Mei
28 / Feng Shan / Jiang Zhou / 65 / Huan Jiang / Shang Nan
29 / Feng Shan / Pao Li / 66 / Huan Jiang / Xia Nan
30 / Feng Shan / Qiao Yin / 67 / Huan Jiang / Mu Lun
31 / Feng Shan / Zhai Ya / 68 / Huan Jiang / Ming Lun
32 / Feng Shan / Chang Zhou / 69 / Huan Jiang / Xun Le
33 / Feng Shan / Feng Cheng / 70 / Nan Dan / Zhong Pu
34 / Tian Lin / Nong Wa / 71 / Nan Dan / Yue Li
35 / Tian Lin / Dong Nong / 72 / Nan Dan / Li Hu
36 / Tian Lin / Neng Liang / 73 / Nan Dan / Ba Yu
37 / Tian Lin / Ba Gui / 74 / Nan Dan / Wu Ai