Illinois Job Index

Release
3/28/2018 / Data
Jan 1990 /Feb 2018 / Issue
2018.3 /

ForFebruary2018Illinois Job Index, Illinois, RMWnationall had employment growth.

The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.

 / Mar
2018
Positive / Jan 2018–Feb 2018 / Last 12 months / Feb 2018
Total non-farm employment / Growth Rate % / Number of Jobs / Growth Rate% / Number of Jobs / Shadow U.R.*
Nation / 0.22 / 326,000 / 1.53 / 2,231,000 / 9.33
RMW / 0.25 / 52,200 / 0.95 / 193,900 / 10.17
Illinois / 0.25 / 15,300 / 0.81 / 48,800 / 9.58

*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.

Talking Points
Illinois
Notes /
  • Illinois added 15,300 jobs in February 2018, compared with a revised 1,300-job loss in January 2018. Compared to February 2017, Illinois has added 48,800 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor market, showed anincrease of 4,400 jobs per month.
  • The Nation added 326,000jobs at a rate of 0.22% inFebruary, compared with a revised 176,000-job gain inJanuary 2018. The three-month moving average was up by 225,700 jobs per month.
  • The RMWadded52,200 jobs inFebruary after arevised 35,900-jobgain inJanuary 2018. The three-month moving average was upby37,600 jobs per month.
  • The state of Illinois now has 110,000 morejobs than in December 2007 when the recent recession started.
  • In 2018, Illinois had employment growth and decline respectively at one month and one month.
  • Three sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 – Construction, Manufacturing, and Information.
  • Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 511,500 new jobs.
  • By February2018 in Illinois, Trade, transportation & utilities,Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Information, Professional & business services, and Other Services.
  • The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 9.58%, 10.17% and 9.33%, compared to official unemployment rates of 4.7%, 3.9% and 4.1%.
  • Through February2018, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 15.70%, 20.23%, and 35.67%, respectively.

Nation
Notes /
  • Total nonfarm payroll employment wasup by 326,000 jobs. Sectors such asProfessional & business services,Construction and Trade, transportation & utilitieshad major job growth.
  • The nation has recovered from the recent recession andadded9,716,000additional jobs since the last employment peak in December 2007. RMW and Illinois have respectively added 143,900 and 41,200 jobs fromtheir peaks in 2000.
  • The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2018were -0.01%, -0.24%, -0.38%, 0.09%, 0.13%, 0.11%,0.12%, 0.14%, 0.12%, 0.03%, 0.12%, 0.14%respectively.

Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Feb 2018
Number of Jobs / Current
Index to Jan 1990 / Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Pervious Peak
Nation / 148,127,000 / 135.67 / 126.57 (Dec-2007) / 38,943,000 / 9,716,000
RMW / 20,548,600 / 120.23 / 119.44 (Jun-2000) / 3,458,000 / 143,900
Illinois / 6,095,200 / 115.70 / 115.08 (Nov-2000) / 826,900 / 41,200
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 –February 2018
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth RatesMar2017 – Feb 2018

Barometer of Job Recovery

* The figure831,500 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point,Dec-2009 is470,300. Adding361,200, the number of additional jobs that needed to be created after taking shadow unemployment rate into account, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create 831,500.

**The figure 26,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.

*** The figure 511,500 represents the jobs recoveredfrom December 2009 throughFebruary 2018.

Employment Growth Rate by Sector:

Total Non-Farm Employment growth rate by Sector,January 2018 – February 2018
Sector notes /
  • Illinois posted positiveemploymentchange in February2018 by adding 15,300jobs. Sixout of ten sectors recorded netgains. Compared to January2018,Construction (-0.31% to 0.95%) had the greatest performance gain, whileLeisure & hospitality(0.55% to -0.28%) had the greatest performance loss. Government (-0.02% to 0.79%), Professional & business services (-0.36% to 0.17%), Information (-1.25% to -0.32%), Trade, transportation & utilities (-0.26% to 0.52%), and Manufacturing (-0.07% to 0.00%)experienced performance gains too,whileOther Services(-0.24% to -0.36%), Education & health (0.16% to 0.01%), and Financial Activities (0.84% to 0.38%)also experienced net losses in performance.
  • InFebruary at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
  • Trade, transportation & utilities:74,000 (0.27%)
  • Construction:65,000 (0.92%)
  • Professional & business services: 55,000(0.27%)
  • For Illinois, the top-threesectors thatgained jobs in Februarywere:
  • Leisure & hospitality: 3,400 (0.00%)
  • Trade, transportation & utilities: 6,300 (0.52%)
  • Government: 6,600 (0.79%)
  • Thetop three sectors that lost jobs in Februaryin Illinois were:
  • Information: -300 (-0.32%)
  • Other Services: -900 (-0.36%)
  • Leisure & hospitality: -1,700 (-0.28%)
  • For Illinois, threesectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment levels, Manufacturing has shed 336,700jobs, Construction is down 6,300jobs andInformation has35,800fewer jobs.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector June 1990 – February 2018
Illinois / RMW / Nation
vs. RMW / vs. / Number of Jobs / Rate % / Rate / Rate
Nation / % / %
Construction / - / - / -6,300 / -2.73 / 22.57 / 32.15
Manufacturing / - / - / -336,700 / -36.51 / -21.92 / -29.15
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / - / - / 70,300 / 6.12 / 9.57 / 21.87
Information / - / - / -35,800 / -27.48 / -22.37 / 3.30
Financial activities / - / - / 24,300 / 6.52 / 21.80 / 29.73
Professional & business services / - / - / 367,700 / 64.28 / 79.61 / 92.74
Education & health / - / - / 396,200 / 74.88 / 79.04 / 117.65
Leisure & hospitality / + / - / 231,700 / 60.35 / 42.14 / 74.93
Other Services / - / - / 44,800 / 21.79 / 24.24 / 38.14
Government / - / - / 81,900 / 10.84 / 11.39 / 23.00
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –February2018
Job Changes in Recession Period* / Job Changes in Jan 2010- Feb2018 / Recovery Rate / Forecasted Job Changes Jan 2010-Feb2019 / Forecasted Recovery Rate
Construction / -63,800 / 20,200 / 31.66% / 24,200 / 37.93%
Manufacturing / -114,600 / 30,800 / 26.88% / 36,000 / 31.41%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / -97,700 / 98,000 / 100.31% / 103,200 / 105.63%
Information / -11,300 / -9,900 / -87.61% / -14,600 / -129.20%
Financial activities / -32,600 / 24,000 / 73.62% / 38,400 / 117.79%
Professional & business services / -92,300 / 166,300 / 180.17% / 155,900 / 168.91%
Education & health / 33,800 / 104,800 / - / 118,900 / -
Leisure & hospitality / -22,300 / 103,700 / 465.02% / 111,300 / 499.10%
Other services / -5,900 / -5,600 / -94.92% / -5,800 / -98.31%
Government / 6,000 / -19,500 / - / -17,800 / -

*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009

Recovery by Sector /
  • During the recession period of December2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced employment declines. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
  • Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial Activities, Professional & business services, andLeisure & hospitality have recovered 31.66%, 26.88%, 100.31%, 73.62%, 180.17% and465.02%respectively from the jobs lost during the recession.
  • ByFebruary 2018, Trade, transportation & utilities, Professional & business services, and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
  • However, the recovery rates for Informationand Other Services arestill negative, namely -87.61% and -94.92%.
  • The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will increase for every sector except Information, Professional & business services, and Other Services.

Construction / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.95 / 2,100
RMW / 1.12 / 9,400
Nation / 0.92 / 65,000
Manufacturing / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0 / 0
RMW / 0.35 / 9,700
Nation / 0.25 / 32,000
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.52 / 6,300
RMW / 0.33 / 12,700
Nation / 0.27 / 74,000
Information / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.32 / -300
RMW / -0.61 / -1,700
Nation / -0.07 / -2,000
Financial activities / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.38 / 1,500
RMW / 0.21 / 2,300
Nation / 0.35 / 30,000
Professional & business services / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.17 / 1,600
RMW / 0.58 / 14,900
Nation / 0.27 / 55,000
Education & health / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.01 / 100
RMW / 0.16 / 5,100
Nation / 0.12 / 28,000
Leisure & hospitality / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.28 / -1,700
RMW / 0.10 / 2,100
Nation / 0.14 / 23,000
Other Services / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.36 / -900
RMW / -0.39 / -3,300
Nation / 0.10 / 6,000
Government / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018 / Jan 2018 - Feb 2018
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.79 / 6,600
RMW / 0.01 / 400
Nation / 0.03 / 6,000

ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at

Illinois Jobs Index / release 3/29/2018 / / page 1