Hampshire County Council Childcare Sufficiency Bi-annual Update for 30 September 2016

Area: Fareham

Period: 1 April 2016 – 30 September 2016

Report by: Colin Skinner Childcare Development & Business Officer (CDBO)

1.  Area demographic profile

This information is provided by the Local Development Team (LDT) and indicates any known changes in the demographic profile in the area. Some of the data may not be statistical but what is known locally from networking with agencies and settings.

Number and ages of children

The overall Fareham area child population aged 0 and 4 years old is projected to remain broadly static between 2015 and 2022 increasing by just 34 - .58% The high level trend projection to 2022 is shown below (Fig.1).

Within Fareham there is projected to be a significant variation in ward areas, broadly reflected by the housing growth areas highlighted in the section below. Significant growth in the wards of Fareham North and Stubbington are anticipated, with most other ward areas projected to see a much slower increase or slight decrease in child numbers.

Figure1

Families accessing benefits

Previous childcare sufficiency reports contained information about families accessing working tax credits and lone parents accessing benefits. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has changed the way this data is reported as follows.

The Universal Credit (UC), a single payment for people who are looking for work or are on a low income, was first piloted in 2013, and then rolled out in phases nationally to Jobcentre Plus offices (JCPs). Local JCPs in Hampshire started to go ‘live’ in April 2015 (Southampton), while all of Hampshire’s JCPs are scheduled to go ‘live’ by April 2016.

In light of the number of JCPs recording ‘live’ Universal Credit data, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the new experimental Claimant Counts on 11 November 2015. This data records eligible persons claiming Jobseeker's Allowance plus new or transferred claimants who are out counts based only on JSA are still collected and published, but referred to as the Jobseekers Allowance. Users need to be aware of these differences.

The ONS decided to replace the number of people claiming only Jobseeker's Allowance as the headline indicator for the number of people claiming benefits, principally for the reason of being unemployed, and use the new Claimant Count as the headline i.e. JSA + Universal Credit.

This change will impact on those areas where Universal Credit data has already gone ‘live’. Locally, this will be in Southampton and Eastleigh, where collection has taken place over a longer period. For other areas, there will be no immediate or noticeable difference between the ‘old’ JSA and the new claimant count. Eventually, all unemployed claimants will be transferred to the Universal Credit.

The new Claimant Count Dataset does not currently publish claimants by duration or sought occupation. The two tables in the Labour Market Bulletin that captures this data will continue to be published, but using the JSA only data i.e. it will not include any new Universal Credit (UC) claimants.

The number of lone parent families accessing benefits in Fareham is 320 (0.5%), slightly lower than the Hampshire average of (0.8%) and lower than the Great Britain figure of (1.1%). However this does not include those that may also be claiming Employment Support Allowance - ESA (this figure therefore does not include all lone parents).

Source:

http://documents.hants.gov.uk/Economy/HampshireLMBSeptember2016.pdf

Employment profiles and income

The quarter worklessness statistics reveal the main out of work figure at 3120 for Fareham (4.5%) with broadly 470 claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA), 2250 claiming ESA/IB and 320 claiming lone parent benefits.

Job creation and planned developments

There are no significant developments reported in the Hampshire Labour Market Bulletin for September 2016 which affect the Fareham area. The innovation centre at Daedalus is part of a £8.3m investment by Fareham Borough Council and is designed to provide a facility where SME businesses can prosper and grow.

Housing Developments, Hampshire

The Fareham local plan consisting of 3 parts is available at: http://www.fareham.gov.uk/planning/localplan.aspx

Part 1 is the core strategy, Part 2 details the proposed development sites and policies whilst Part 3 detailing the Welborne Strategic Development Area (SDA). The core plan allocates 3,729 dwellings to be built between 2006 and 2026, in addition to the Welborne SDA where it is anticipated that up to 6,500 new dwellings will be allocated. Of these 3,729 dwellings some 2,857 were completed prior to 31 March 2014 with a further 872 outstanding for the plan period as at 1 April 2014.

The following table details large sites without planning permission, but which have been allocated for further development. Full details are contained within Appendix C of Part 2 of the local plan.

The childcare needs implications for the Welborne SDA are significant with an anticipated need for approximately 350 sessional places and a similar number of full time day care places. Work is being carried out to assess the implications of the Government’s 30 hour childcare policy on these numbers.

Development / Build commencing / No of houses / Wards affected / Comments
Welborne site / TBC / 6500 / Currently this site is still in planning stages and confirmation building commencement has not been agreed
Whiteley development / TBC / 180 homes within Fareham plus approx. 3000 north of Whiteley within Winchester CC area. / Whiteley, Sarisbury Green / This site is still in planning and has not been allocated a start build date


2. Childcare places analysis

2.1 Childcare mix known at 30 Sept 2016

This data is produced by the Services for Young Children Local Development Team (LDT) of Ofsted registered childcare from known changes in the childcare market that have occurred in the period.

Table 1: Childcare Places

Provider type / Total number of providers gained or settings that have extended places / Total number of registered places gained (if known) / Total number of providers lost / Total number of registered spaces lost (if known) / Net growth or loss of places since the last quarter (- / + )
Childminders / Q1 -
Q2 -
Q3
Q4 / -
- / -
- / -
- / -
-
Home child carers / Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4 / -
- / -
- / -
- / -
-
EYE Non domestic premises – full day care / Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4 / -
- / -
-
/ -
-
90 / -
-
90
EYE Non domestic premises – term-time care / Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4 / -
- / -
- / -
-
/ -
-
Holiday playschemes / Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4 / -
- / -
-
/ -
- / -
-
Out of School clubs (inc. Breakfast and After School) / Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4 / -
- / -
- /
-
- / -
-

Comment:

In this period there has been no new movement in the childcare market, since the annual report to 31 March 2016. Although activity is known to have taken place where a setting has changed its legal entity status, this is not recorded here due to the unchanged market position.

2.2 New childcare and early years provision known at 30 Sept 2016

This is data that is known to the Local Development Team of childcare developments that have completed registration in the period. That data includes all types of provision including childminders.

Table 2 New Provisions

Ward / Postcode / Age range / Registered places / Type of setting
FDC/SC/OSC/CM/HC
Whiteley / PO15 / 0-5 / 90 / FDC
Total / 90

Comment:

There are a total of 90 childcare places being created by settings during this reporting period.

2.3 Proposed childcare and early years provision known at 30 Sept 2016:

This is data known to the Local Development Team of childcare provision that is proposed to be developed. It is likely that these provisions have made application to Ofsted.

Table 3: Proposed Provision

Ward / Postcode / Age range / Registered places / Type of setting
FDC/SC/OSC/CM/HC
Fareham West / SC
Total:

Comment:

There is a proposal to set up a new full day care provision for Fareham West.

2.4 Early years and childcare provision under threat of closure known at 30 Sept 2016

This data is provided by the Local Development Team to indicate areas where childcare operations are known to have difficulty in the childcare market.

Table 4: Provision under threat of closure

Ward / Postcode / Age range / Registered places / Type of setting
FDC/SC/OSC/CM/HC
Sarisbury / SO31 / 2-5 / 24 / SC
Total / 24

Comment:

There is one setting that will be closing at October half term 2016 due to low numbers.

2.5 Early years and childcare provision closed at 30 Sept 2016.

This data provided by Local Development Team of known closures of childcare operations in the period.

Table 5: Provision Closed

Ward / Postcode / Age range / Registered places / Type of setting
FDC/SC/OSC/CM/HC
Total

Note: Where a number is not indicated the assumption is that the carer has not provided childcare for some time.

Comment:

Data is currently not available for this period to identify a total loss of places. Sufficiency of places is being closely monitored due to known housing developments. New providers are being actively sought by the Local Development Team.

NB: Ofsted inspections are resulting in removal from the Early Years register of childminders who are currently not supporting children. Where a childminder has no child under 5 years of age they are moved to the Childcare register (5 – 8 years). (Indications are that many hold on to their early years registration due the higher cost of the childcare register only option).

Table 6: Places summary – see overleaf

3.  Early Years Education (EYE) – Free Entitlement

3.1 Early Years Education for Two Year Olds

This is part of a national offer from the Department for Education (DfE) and has been developed to improve outcomes for identified two year olds who meet or their family’s income or circumstances meet, certain eligibility criteria. Further details can be found at http://www.hants.gov.uk/childrens-services/childcare/parents/cis/eye/2-year-old-offer-2.htm

The take up of 2 year funding is monitored against the list of eligibility provided by the DWP. Generally take up in Fareham is 77% with Fareham North and South indicating the highest shortfall of take up.

Table 7: Summer take up against the DWP list of likely eligible 2 year children by ward.

3.2 Take up of the free Early Years Education entitlement by two, three and four year olds.

Take up of EYE funding is measured in two ways; in numbers of child claims and average weekly hours as detailed in table 8, and against the small areas population figures (SAPF) by ward as shown in table 9. Where exceeds 100% against SAPF this indicates parents take their childcare in adjacent or nearby wards.

Table 8: EYE funded claims and average hours claimed for 2, 3 and 4 year olds

Table 9: Claims by ward measured against Small Area Population forecast figures

3.3  Development of childminder EYE provision

Childminders play an important role in meeting parent’s childcare needs. Childminders usually look after between 3 and 6 children and are often flexible in catering for parent’s needs working in partnership with other settings and out of school clubs. In Fareham there are a total of 128 Ofsted registered childminders, of which 52 deliver the free entitlement. Of those 46 also deliver funded places for eligible two year olds.

Table 10: Distribution of childminders in Fareham by ward, type and 2 yr accreditation

Row Labels / No of childminders / No of Non EYE Childminders / No of EYE childminders / No of 2 yr accredited childminders
Fareham
Fareham East / 7 / 5 / 2 / 2
Fareham North / 11 / 4 / 7 / 5
Fareham North-West / 9 / 5 / 4 / 3
Fareham South / 7 / 1 / 6 / 6
Fareham West / 13 / 7 / 6 / 6
Hill Head / 8 / 6 / 2 / 2
Locks Heath / 1 / 1
Park Gate / 15 / 7 / 8 / 8
Portchester East / 6 / 3 / 3 / 2
Portchester West / 3 / 3
Sarisbury / 12 / 7 / 5 / 5
Stubbington / 7 / 4 / 3 / 2
Titchfield / 8 / 4 / 4 / 3
Titchfield Common / 8 / 6 / 2 / 2
Warsash / 10 / 10
Whiteley / 3 / 3
Fareham Total / 128 / 76 / 52 / 46

4  Development for 30 hours Childcare

Assessing the potential demand for 30 hours childcare from Sept 2017 is currently a key priority for both the local authority and providers. SfYC have developed a forecaster to help providers assess the potential numbers of eligible parents who may take up their entitlement. This may be found at:

http://www.hants.gov.uk/childrens-services/childcare/providers/eye-eysff/thirtyhours-childcare.htm

Table 11 below combines the output from this forecaster with the summer 2016 take up data and indicates where there is a ‘funded hours gap’. In most wards there are in fact already sufficient places to meet the demand from eligible parents, who are in the main purchasing addition hours. However in order to accommodate the places there is likely to be a squeeze on unfunded nought, one and two year places. SfYC continues to build its modelling capacity as the results of research into parents’ requirements become clearer.

The main assumptions behind the modelling are that 89% of the numbers for working families with 3 and 4 year olds are likely to meet the eligibility criteria and that of this number 80% are highly likely to require their increased entitlement.

Two year old children are not eligible for the increased entitlement. The numbers of two year olds are provided for indication purposes as they will most likely form the basis of the three year cohort in Sept 2017

Table 11: Potential 30 hours requirement by ward