Key Results Expected from the Class Project for AGEC 317

Key Results Expected from the Class Project for AGEC 317

Run the regression models that express Monster, Rockstar, and Red Bull volumes as the dependent variables; the list of explanatory or right-hand side variables are the prices of Monster, Rockstar, Red Bull, and Full-Throttle; customer count; and seasonality. Seasonality corresponds to the use of the seasonal dummy variables. We covered this material during the lecture held on November 11.
For the regression models, you must use the linear model and the logarithmic (multiplicative) model; do not take the logarithm of the dummy variables; the logarithm of zero is undefined.
Obtain the own-price and cross-price elasticities associated with the linear model and the logarithmic (multiplicative) model. The own-price and cross-price elasticities will vary from observation to observation in the linear model. So use the sample means from the data to obtain these elasticities. In the use of the logarithmic (multiplicative) model, the estimated coefficients are the elasticities.
You must obtain forecasts of Monster, Rockstar, and Red Bull volumes for the rest of 2010; the number of forecasts required then is 13 starting with week October 4, 2010 to October 10, 2010 (week 154) and ending with week December 27, 2010 to January 2, 2011 (week 166). As forecasting tools, you must use either the linear trend model, the quadratic trend model, an AR(1) model, or an AR(2) model. Use only ONE of these four models, BUT JUSTIFY which one to use. The appropriate model may vary depending on the particular energy drink. Do not use any MA models for this project.
When you have selected the appropriate forecasting model, use your estimated model in conjunction with Excel to obtain the forecasts. That is plug the “formula” from the regression results back into Excel to derive the forecasts for the next 13 periods, weeks 154, 155, … , 166. See Problem Set 5 questions 1 and 3 on this point.
To minimize confusion about SAS and writing SAS programs, I have written THE SAS program to conduct all of the analyses that are required.The name of the SAS program to use is SAS Project 317.sas. The output associated with this program can be found in the word file Class Project AGEC 317 Output.doc or the SAS file SAS Output Class Project 317.sas. These files are up on the AGEC 317 web page.
So bottom line, use the SAS Output that has been generated to conduct the respective analyses previously described. That way you do not have to worry about writing your own SAS program. Use the output to be the best analyst you can be. Concentrate on the write-up of the technical report and the power point deck.
You may now breathe much more easily.