The Economic Impact of Growth in Asia – Donald H Straszheim
The presentation dealt in some depth with the economic development of China but rather focused on the knock on benefits to its neighbours where investment opportunities were generally more conventional , understood and hence preferable.
China is reported to have a 1% labour force growth but is experiencing an 8% increase in productivity!
The country is effectively long on labour and short on capital.
The economy is NOT overheated in the sense of too much money chasing too few goods and pushing up prices but is definitely showing signs of severe imbalance.
Five clear economic cycles since the 1978 reforms can be identified – all the result of policy shifts/controls etc.
Some key immediate issues to China are:
Need to build institutional capital or soft infrastructure
External relations as the Asian giant
Are Beijing or the Provinces in charge?
Priorities Order Growth and Democracy a distant third could present problems longer term
Foreign direct investment is increasing
What is needed are technology and expertise inputs
There are major growth opportunities in energy commodities travel tourism retail professional services health care infrastructure etc. – the secret is to make money from them!
Taiwan is the back door to China
Hong Kong is the side door!
As a parting shot- Macau has more gambling revenues than Las Vegas!
The Challenge of Global Aging – how demography will reshape the world of the 21st Century
Conclusions were ;
The world stands on the threshold of a demographic revolution called global aging
Global aging poses the greatest threat to Japan and continental Europe – less so to the U S
The phenomenon could wreck any economy that fails to prepare
There are two forces present:
Falling Fertility
Rising Longevity
Up to the Industrial Revolution the elderly (65+) represented a mere 2-3% of the population – it is now 15% in the developing world and around 26% in the developed world
Global aging poses five challenges;
Fiscal – rising retirement costs
Labour – graying and shrinking workforce
Growth – stagnant or declining markets
Financial – asset devaluation and capital flow swings
Geopolitical – power shifts and tight defence and social security budgets
The bottom line was that globalization is now becoming an essential strategy with cooperation between developing and developed counties to embrace immigration and outsourcing and cross border investment where an open global economy allows young people to support old people across international borders.
Some interesting population statistics are appended:
12 Largest Countries Ranked by Population:
1950 2000 2050
1 China China India
2 Soviet Union India China
3 India USA USA
4 USA Indonesia Pakistan
5 Japan Brazil Indonesia
6 Indonesia Russia Nigeria
7 Germany Pakistan Bangladesh
8 Brazil Bangladesh Brazil
9 UK Japan Congo
10 Italy Nigeria Ethiopia
11 France Mexico Mexico
12 Bangladesh Germany Phillippines