253 SEM 15 E

ROSE-ROTH

253 SEM 15 E

Original: English

NATO Parliamentary Assembly

89th ROSE-ROTH SEMINAR

SEMINAR REPORT

SECURITY AND STABILITY IN THE

SOUTH CAUCASUS:

FOSTERING ENDURING REGIONAL PEACE

Yerevan, Armenia

18-20 June 2015

www.nato-pa.int 12 November 2015

This Seminar Report is presented for information only and does not necessarily represent the official view of the Assembly. This report was prepared by Henrik Bliddal, Director of the Science and Technology Committee, and Ethan Corbin, Director of the Defence and Security Committee.

I.  Introduction

1.  From 18 to 20 June 2015, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly held its 89th Rose-Roth Seminar in Yerevan, Armenia, in co-operation with the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia and the support of the Swiss Government. The seminar was entitled “Security and Stability in the South Caucasus: Fostering Enduring Regional Peace”. Seventy five members of parliament from 17NATO member states and partner countries, as well as international experts and observers, debated questions central to peace and security in the South Caucasus. In particular, Armenia’s domestic and regional challenges were thoroughly discussed with members of Armenia’s political leadership, civil society, and international experts.

2.  The seminar was dedicated to increasing the international community’s understanding of the evolving dynamics between Armenia and the Euro-Atlantic Community. Panel discussions included an array of topics:

-  The political and economic dynamics of Armenia’s co-operation with the Euro-Atlantic Community;

-  Euro-Atlantic integration and the South Caucasus;

-  Security and unresolved regional conflicts;

-  Regional political and civil society developments;

-  Energy security;

-  Security sector reforms and integrity building in the defence establishment; and,

-  The rise of so-called the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS or Daesh) and its connection to the Caucasus region.

3.  Throughout the seminar, Armenian officials and experts emphasized the many issues shaping the security environment in the South Caucasus, including: persistent tensions between Georgia and Russia resulting from Russia’s occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia; the NagornoKarabakh conflict; the closed border between Armenia and Turkey; the international sanctions regime on Iran; and the flow of extremists fighters from the Caucasus to the many civil conflicts raging in the Middle East and North Africa and even in Eastern Ukraine. Armenian officials also noted the direct regional impact of strained relations between Russia and much of the international community – particularly Armenia, which must find a way to balance between the two as its geography and interests dictate.

II.  Opening session

4.  The opening session was moderated by Koryun Nahapetyan, the Head of the Armenian Delegation to the NATO PA. Mr Nahapetyan welcomed the members of parliament and the other seminar participants. Mr. Nahapetyan stressed that, through its partnerships, Armenia brought its very own contribution to the common values of NATO and the European Union (EU). Galust Sahakyan, Speaker of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia, underlined Armenia’s consistent efforts to improve its democratic institutions. He highlighted the increasing role of parliamentary committees in oversight and transparency as well as an increasingly vibrant civil society. He continued by noting that Armenia seeks to live up to Euro-Atlantic institutional standards and fully participate in EU initiatives and foster close co-operation with NATO. Armenia values the participation of its armed forces in NATO missions. Since 2012, 35 Armenian troops are serving in Kosovo in NATO’s Kosovo Force (KFOR). Mr Sahakyan also pointed to active participation in NATOPA, for example hosting Rose-Roth Seminars in 2005 and 2010. Armenia is in a challenging position in the South Caucasus. Mr Sahakyan stressed a desire for regional conflict resolution through joint efforts and regional co-operation, with all sides committing the necessary political will. In particular, he noted, the resolution of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh must be based on the principle of self-determination in accordance with international law. Armenia is an advocate of a peaceful resolution and fully supported the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Process. Furthermore, he called for improvement in relations between Armenia and Turkey, but progress should not hinge on preconditions. He urged Turkey to sign the 2009 Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations and the Protocol on the Development of Bilateral Relations between Turkey and Armenia.

5.  Paolo Alli, Vice-President of the NATO PA, highlighted the unique opportunity conferences such as the Rose-Roth present for relevant actors in a country and region to discuss high-level issues, without the constraints posed by official government-to-government meetings. The inclusion of such a wide range of voices allows for in depth discussions covering the breadth of each subject in a permissive environment. Mr Alli lamented the deteriorating conditions in Nagorno-Karabakh and the step backward taken as evidenced by the almost total lack of participation of Azerbaijan.[1] This was a stark contrast with the last Rose-Roth seminar in Yerevan in 2010, Mr Alli noted, where there was active participation and debate with members of the Azeri government and civil society. Mr Alli expressed a sincere desire to see the international community continue to engage with their Armenian counterparts to continue to work to bring lasting security to the region; something even more essential today as the security of the region increasingly finds itself caught in the nexus of international security challenges with the attendant range of actors and effects.

6.  Switzerland’s Ambassador to Armenia, Ambassador Lukas Gasser, also welcomed the participants to the seminar, noting that Switzerland values the tradition of supporting exchanges among parliamentarians in frameworks such as the Rose-Roth initiative. Switzerland’s co-operation with the Armenian parliament expands well beyond seminars, he said. With its projects over the years, Switzerland works diligently to help Armenia sustain and enrich its democracy. Furthermore, the Geneva Centre for Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF) maintains a long-term commitment, focusing on democratic oversight of the security sector, in co-operation with the OSCE Office in Yerevan. Switzerland’s commitment to the South Caucasus is for the long-term, Ambassador Gasser underlined. Their continued support to NATO’s Partnership for Peace programme and the NATO PA’s Rose-Roth Seminars is a modest but clear sign of this engagement.

7.  The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia, Edward Nalbandian, argued the region’s security problems can only be solved through expanded co-operation and partnership between the South Caucasus states and the international community. Mr Nalbandian emphasized that Armenia is seeking deeper co-operation with both the EU and NATO, despite its decision not to sign an Association Agreement with the EU in 2013. He stressed that closer relations with the EU should not infringe upon Armenia’s relationships with other partners, particularly Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). He hoped that the European Council would soon endorse a negotiation mandate for a new bilateral agreement for co-operation.

8.  Mr Nalbandian emphasized the importance of Armenia’s ties to NATO under its Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP), and noted political dialogue on international security was taking place at the highest level and at regular intervals. He highlighted Armenia’s participation in Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan, where a contingent had been deployed since 2010. Armenian troops are increasingly taking part in international peacekeeping operations, the Minister said, underlining Armenia’s commitment to contribute to international security.

9.  The Minister noted that Armenia is located in a particularly challenging geographical area. Developments in countries in the wider region, Syria and Iraq for example, have an impact on the country. He argued that the South Caucasus needs a peaceful atmosphere, and that one-sided decisions or closed borders hinder this.

10.  On the crisis in Ukraine, he told the delegates that Ukraine and Armenia were connected through friendship, in particular via the Armenian diaspora in the country. However, he criticized the UN General Assembly’s March 2014 Resolution on the territorial integrity of Ukraine: Armenia would never condone a resolution supporting the principle of territorial integrity alone, without underscoring the right to self-determination. He welcomed the Minsk agreements and believed they would pave the way for a peaceful settlement. All conflicts had their own dynamics and particularities, he said, and one could not impose the same formula on all of them: only the Ukrainians would be able to agree to a lasting solution.

11.  On the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the Minister stressed that negotiations were the only way forward. The Minister criticized NATO’s treatment of the issue, particularly vis-à-vis its approach in official documents. Furthermore, he did not appreciate the way Azerbaijan approached the Minsk Group and the broader process of conflict resolution. He also lamented the substantial increase in military spending in Azerbaijan over the last decade. Armenia, he said, had always been committed to the Minsk Group process. He called on the international community to do more to help resolve the conflict, attaching great importance to practical support to the Minsk Process. The Minsk Group format, he noted, is the only one with an international mandate and remained the best platform. He argued that Azerbaijan continued to reject proposals made by the Minsk Group and had not committed to building trust. Furthermore, he said that both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh are main parties of the conflict and that this needed to be taken into consideration. Since 2014, the situation along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh has worsened. The Minister told delegates, however, that the situation had become more stable in the past months, but he attributed this to the then-upcoming European Games hosted in Azerbaijan, and that he expected renewed incidents after they came to an end.

12.  On the question of the events of 1915, the Minister argued that recognition of past crimes was a key way to avoid them in the future. He stressed that Armenia views these events as genocide, thanked the countries recognizing this, and called on Turkey to do so as well.

13.  When questioned about the safety of the Metsamor nuclear power plant, the Minister said that it was never raised during bilateral meetings between Armenia and Turkey in the run-up to the 2009 protocols. He characterized it as a minor matter.

14.  Mr Nalbandian also told the audience that Armenia tried to support the process on an Iranian nuclear deal in a modest way; Armenia was the first to welcome the comprehensive agreement. He continued by noting that Armenia was very interested in settling the issue as a means of fostering better economic relations with Iran.

III.  Armenian Co-operation with the Euro-Atlantic Community: Security, Politics, and Economics

15.  Despite its regional difficulties, Armenia’s Defence Minister, Seyran Ohanyan, noted that Armenia had become a security exporter rather than importer by virtue of its continued participation in both NATO and UN peace operations in Afghanistan, Kosovo, and Lebanon. He noted that Armenia’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and partnership with NATO are in fact complimentary, rather than conflicting. He underlined that unstable and unpredictable security threats existed for Armenia as well as the international community because of the current geopolitical situation. The international security environment is a principal reason Armenia will continue to co-operate with NATO in an open and transparent manner.

16.  Defence Minister Ohanyan continued by stressing that the conflicts in the South Caucasus cannot be considered in isolation; the region is in fact surrounded by various unresolved conflicts. Security today, he continued, is threatened more by the countries’ different and often non-complementary approaches to collective security as well as energy and economic matters. Of particular concern, he underlined, is transnational terrorism, particularly ISIS. The Caucasus continued to be a target, not least from returning foreign fighters.

17.  Co-operation with NATO is pushing forward necessary military reforms and helping Armenian forces’ ability to interoperate with NATO Allies and partner nations. Particular areas of focus are reforms in military education and professionalization, as well as integrity building. Armenia was the only member of the CSTO and ally of Russia involved in all of NATO’s peace and stability programs, Mr Ohanyan stressed. The Minister noted that NATO is a guarantor of stability in the SouthCaucasus, though Armenia expected a balanced approach from NATO: All three SouthCaucasus partners should be provided equal opportunities when it comes to Alliance programmes.

18.  Given the upturn in violations of the 1994 ceasefire along the line of contact and across the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, the absence of direct communications between the countries’ respective Defence Ministries was an issue of great concern for Minister Ohanyan. Before 2008, there had been communication, mostly at the field commander level, but such communication was currently missing. While meetings between the respective Foreign Affairs Ministries were taking place, no equivalent meetings were taking place between Defence Ministries. He underlined that the Armenian armed forces had always tried to reduce tensions and show restraint.

19.  Dirk Lorenz, chargé d’affaires a.i. of the EU Delegation to Armenia, laid out the EU-Armenia relationship very clearly. While the EU-Armenia relationship is “very complex”, he stated, Armenia co-operates substantially with the EU in a number of arenas. For example, the country was actively participating in all activities the EU offered to Eastern Partnership countries in the area of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).

20.  On Nagorno-Karabakh, Mr Lorenz underlined that the rise in fatalities on the line of contact in the first half of 2015 was a matter of concern. Confrontational rhetoric, the continued arms race, as well as humanitarian issues impacted negatively on the conflict settlement process as well as on the population caught up directly in the conflict. The status quo, he argued, is unsustainable and a political solution is clearly needed. The EU supports the Minsk Group and its co-chairs in their endeavours to help find a solution. A new EU Special Representative (EUSR) for the SouthCaucasus and the Crisis in Georgia, Herbert Salber, had recently been appointed, and regularly visited the region and is working closely with the Minsk co-chairs. The EU funded and considered further support for confidence building activities to complement the Minsk Group cochairs' efforts. As Mr Lorenz reminded the participants, the EU appealed to both sides to: