Draft August 04, 2015
DPI-452
Fall 2015
Tuesday and Thursday, 2:45-4:00
L332
Professor Arne Westad
ST Lee Professor of US-Asia Relations
124 Mt. Auburn - Suite 200N-256
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Office hours: Tuesday, 10am-12pm
Course assistant: Iza Ding
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Faculty assistant: Lia Tjahjana
124 Mt. Auburn - Suite 200N-217G
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At the beginning of the 21st century, China is moving ever closer to the center of international affairs. This course traces the country’s complex foreign relations over the past 250 years, identifying the forces that will determine its path in the decades to come. Since the height of the Qing Empire in the 18th century, China’s confrontation with foreign powers have caused its world view to fluctuate between feelings of dominance and subjugation, emulation and defiance. From the invasion of Burma in the 1760s to the Boxer Rebellion in the early 20th century and the rivalry with the United States in eastern Asia today, many of these encounters have left the Chinese with a sense of humiliation and resentment, and have inflamed their notions of justice, hierarchy, and China’s regional centrality. This course is essential for anyone wishing to understand the recent past and probable future of this dynamic and complex country.
Course overview
1. Introduction: Why is China important?
The power of the past
2. The origins of the Chinese state
3. China and its region
4. The Chinese Communist Party
5. China’s age of reform
Chinese power today
6. The sources of economic growth
7. China’s military power
8. China’s foreign policy
9. The domestic variables
The future of Chinese power
10. Three scenarios for China’s future
11. China’s future economies
12. China in Asia
13. The United States and China
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Draft August 04, 2015
Course readings
The readings for the course can be accessed through Canvas. The following books are useful as general overviews, and it is recommended that students read them in full:
· Westad, Odd Arne. Restless Empire: China and the World since 1750. New York: Basic, 2012
· Shambaugh, David L. China Goes Global: The Partial Power. Oxford: Oxford UP, 2013
· Christensen, Thomas J. The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power. New York: W.W Norton, 2015
Assignments and grading
There are two assignments for this class.
The first is a group exercise. Depending on the number of students in the class, we will form small groups who will work on policy problems connected with China’s rise. The output will generally have two forms. There will be a 10-minute briefing for the whole class, followed by discussion. In your briefing, you may use no more than four slides. The group will also prepare, for the instructor, a two-page memo (1.5 line-spaced) that summarizes and highlights the points made in the briefing. The memo is due on the day of the presentation.
Presentation dates:
· Group 1 (October 8): What are China's main economic challenges today?
· Group 2 (October 15): If war between China and the United States broke out tomorrow, what could China hope to achieve militarily?
· Group 3 (October 22):Who make the decisions in Chinese foreign policy?
· Group 4 (October 29): What is most important for Sichuan's future?
· Group 5 (November 5): Which of the three scenarios for China's future do you think is most probable?
The second assignment is an individually written six-page policy brief that outlines, analyzes, and makes a policy recommendation for a particular problem related to China’s current foreign policy. This may be written for the Chinese government or for a foreign government (including that of the United States). This paper is due December 1.
The group exercise will count for one-third of the grade and the individual memo two-thirds but class participation will be taken into account when assessing the final grade for the course.
All written work for this course must be appropriately referenced. Students seeking guidance regarding proper citation and academic honesty should refer to the Harvard Kennedy School Academic Code. If you still have questions as to whether or not you have used citation properly, please speak with the instructors before turning in your written assignment.
The course may be audited, but only with written permission from the instructor. Harvard students from outside HKS may register for this course, with written permission, if space and time-tabling allows for it.
Overview of individual sessions and mandatory reading
Week 1 (September 3)
Lecture: Why is China important?
Within less than a generation, China has moved from the periphery of the international system to its center. It is likely that the country will be a dominant power in the 21st century and beyond. But China is not only important because of its geo-political weight. It is also essential because of its cultural and political significance for the larger eastern Asian region.
Reading:
- Westad, Odd Arne. Restless Empire: China and the World since 1750. New York: Basic Books, 2012. pp. 1-17
- Jacques, Martin. When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order. 2nd ed. London: Penguin, 2009. pp. 1-28
- Allison, Graham, Blackwill, R., and Wyne, A., Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World. MIT Press, 2013. pp. 1-18
The power of the past
Week 2 (September 8 and 10)
Lecture: The origins of the Chinese state
Chinese culture originates in three great epochs: Han, Tang, and Song. Knowing a bit about them is important for understanding China today.
Seminar: The classics of Chinese strategy
Reading:
1. Schwartz, Benjamin I. China and Other Matters. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1996. pp. 114-124
2. Three Strategies of Huang Shigong, pp. 277-306; Sun Zi: Art of War, 145-186; Questions and Replies between Tang Taizong and Li Weigong, pp. 307-360. Sawyer, Ralph D. The Seven Military Classics of Ancient China = Wu Jing Qi Shu. Boulder: Westview Press, 1993.
3. Confucius: Analects (excerpt)
Week 3 (September 15 and 17)
Lecture: China and its region
China is at the core of a vast region, stretching from the Ural Mountains and the Caspian Sea to the Pacific and Indian oceans. China’s place within its region was defined during the Qing Empire, which ruled China from the early 17th to the early 20th century.
Seminar: Chinese world orders
Reading:
- Westad, Odd Arne. Restless Empire: China and the World since 1750. New York: Basic Books, 2012. ch 1 & 2
2. Rowe, William T. China's Last Empire the Great Qing. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2009. pp. 63-89
3. Elliott, Mark C. Emperor Qianlong: Son of Heaven, Man of the World. New York: Pearson Longman, 2009. pp. 125-142
4. Wang Fuzhi. "Historical Trends." Sources of Chinese Tradition. Vol. 2 (2nd ed). New York: Columbia University Press, 2000.
5. Yi Hangno. "Sinify the Western Barbarians." Edited excerpt from Sourcebook of Korean Civilization. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 1997. pp158-159
Week 4 (September 22 and 24)
Lecture: The Chinese Communist Party
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was formed in the early 20th century and took power in 1949. Mao Zedong led the CCP for forty years, and his thinking created some of the fundamentals for Chinese world views today.
Seminar: The CCP in power
Reading:
- Westad, Odd Arne. Restless Empire: China and the World since 1750. New York: Basic Books, 2012. Ch 8 & 9.
- Mao Zedong. “Report on an Investigation of the Peasant Movement in Hunan.” March 1927
- Discussion between N. S. Khrushchev and Mao Zedong, October 02, 1959, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, Volkogonov Collection, Wilson Center.
Week 5 (September 29 and October 1)
Lecture: China’s age of reform
Mao Zedong’s rule united the country, but failed in terms of economic development. After Mao’s death in 1976, the new leader Deng Xiaoping opened up for the transformation of the Chinese economy from a state-led to a market-led form of production and enterprise. It was the greatest economic transformation the world has ever seen.
Seminar: How did China break through?
Reading:
- Westad, Odd Arne. “The Great Transformation: China in the Long 1970s.” Ferguson, Niall, et al, eds., The Shock of the Global: The 1970s in Perspective. Choice Reviews Online, 2011.
- Vogel, Ezra. Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China. The Belknap Press Harvard University Press, 2011. pp. 217-248
- Köll, Elisabeth. The Rong Family: A Chinese Business History. Harvard Business School case. 2010.
- CCP Politburo Standing Committee Meeting transcript, 6 June 1989, from Tiananmen Papers. New York: Public Affairs, 2001. pp. 420-425
Chinese power today
Week 6 (October 6 and 8)
Lecture: The sources of economic growth
For thirty years (from 1980 to 2010) the Chinese economy continued to grow very rapidly, in what amounts to the biggest economic and social revolution of modern times. What were the main causes of this growth? What role did the Chinese state play in it? And what kind of economy does China have today?
Seminar: Does China have a capitalist economy?
Reading:
1. Nee, Victor and Opper, Sonja. Capitalism from Below. Harvard University Press, 2012. pp. 41-71
2. Steinfeld, Edward. Playing Our Game: Why China’s Economic Rise Doesn’t Threaten the West. Oxford University Press, 2010. pp. 1-19
3. Westad, Odd Arne. Restless Empire: China and the World since 1750. New York: Basic Books, 2012. Ch 10.
4. Osnos, Evan. Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth, and Faith in the New China. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2014. pp. 60-75
Week 7 (October 13 and 15)
Lecture: China’s military power
In 1979 fought an inconclusive war against its former ally Vietnam. The results of the war convinced the Chinese leadership that its military was backward and broken. Since then, China has expanded its military power in a revolutionary manner, spending more percentage-wise on building its capabilities than any other major power. Still, most experts argue that China’s military reach is far inferior to that of the United States, even in Asia.
Seminar: Can China challenge US power in eastern Asia?
Reading:
1. Shambaugh, David. China Goes Global: The Partial Power. Oxford University Press, 2013. pp. 269-306
2. Chase, Michael S. et al. China’s Incomplete Military Transformation: Assessing the Weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2015.
3. Haddick, Robert. Fire on the Water: China, America, and the Future of the Pacific. Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2014. pp. 77-100
Week 8 (October 20 and 22)
Lecture: China’s foreign policy today
As its power has grown, China’s involvement in international affairs has also expanded. The country today defines its interests as being global, even though its active policies are main reserved for its own region. Meanwhile, many experts claim that Chinese national security decisionmaking is under-developed for the purposes it is supposed to serve.
Seminar: Who decides China’s foreign policy?
Reading:
1. Wang Jisi. China’s Search for a Grand Strategy: A Rising Great Power Finds its Way. Journal of Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2011. pp1-12
2. Buzan, Barry. “The Logic and Contradictions of ‘Peaceful Rise/ Development’ as China’s Grand Strategy”. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 2014. pp 381-420.
3. Yan Xuetong, “From Keeping a Low Profile to Striving for Achievement,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 2014. pp 153-84.
4. Shambaugh, David. China Goes Global: The Partial Power. Oxford University Press, 2013. pp. 45-120.
Week 9 (October 27 and 29)
Lecture: The domestic variables
Over the past generation China has moved from a tightly controlled Leninist dictatorship to a much more open society, which the Communist Party struggles to keep control over. A number of key commentators argue that China’s main problems are domestic, and that many of them are connected with poor governance. In addition, the CCP’s policies for controlling ethnic minorities seem to have failed.
Seminar: The key challenges of one Chinese province
Reading:
- Central Committee of the Communist Party of China’s General Office. “Document 9: Communiqué on the Current State of the Ideological Sphere,” 2013.
- Pew Research Report. “Environmental Concerns on the Rise in China.” September 19, 2013.
- McGregor, Richard. The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers. Harper Collins, 2010. pp. 1-33
- Greve, Louisa. “The Troubled Periphery: China at the Tipping Point?” Journal of Democracy, vol. 24, no. 1 (2013): 73–78.
The future of Chinese power
Week 10 (November 3 and 5)
Lecture: Three scenarios for China’s future
While China’s power has grown significantly over the past generation, it is not given that its growth will continue. But it is also possible that we under-estimate China’s potential for growth and, especially, its proclivity for change. What are conceivable scenarios for China’s future over the next twenty years?
Seminar: The coming collapse of China?
Reading:
- Acharya, Amitav. “Power Shift or Paradigm Shift? China’s Rise and Asia’s Emerging Security Order.” International Studies Quarterly 58, no. 1 (March 1, 2014): 158–73.
2. Beardson, Timothy. Stumbling Giant: The Threats to China’s Future. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2014, pp.398-435.
3. Quah, Danny. The Simple Arithmetic of China’s Growth Slowdown. The Brooking Institution, February 18, 2015.
Week 11 (November 10 and 12)
Lecture: China’s future economies
China today is first and foremost an economic power. How is its economy likely to develop? Is China today facing a middle-income trap? How will demographic change influence China’s growth? And what about regional variations within China itself?
Seminar: China 2030
Reading:
- China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society. The World Bank, 2013.
- Davis, Bob. “The End of China’s Economic Miracle?” Wall Street Journal, November 21, 2014.
- Fan, Shenggen et al., eds. The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China. Articles by Cox, Simon; Fogel, Robert W. / Grotte, Nathaniel; Perkins, Dwight. pp. 59-74.
Week 12 (November 17 and 19)