Dr. T. Drezner ISDS 361A Fall 2008
Probability and Statistical Methods in Business and Economics – ISDS 361A
Professor: Dr. T. Drezner
Office: / SGMH - 4159Office Hours: / MW 2:00 – 3:30 PM
Telephone: / (714) 278-8318
Messages: / (714) 278-2221
E-Mail: /
Website: / http://business.fullerton.edu/isds/tdrezner
PREREQUISITES
The prerequisites for this class are ISDS 265 and a course in calculus. These courses must be passed prior to taking IS/DS 361A. If you have not successfully completed the prerequisites you are not qualified for this class. If you are not qualified, you must drop this class immediately, following the usual procedure. All classes are subject to administrative audit at any time during the semester. Any student found to be unqualified, will be administratively dropped.
TEXT
1. Keller Gerald, Statistics for Management and Economics, 8th Edition, South-Western Cengage Learning, 2009.
2. Supplemental course-packet, available for purchase at COPYCO, 2438 E. Chapman Ave, Fullerton, Tel: (714) 680-9800.
COURSE EVALUATION/REQUIREMENTS/EXPECTATIONS
1. There will be three (3) examinations and one (1) computer assignment:
2 Midterm Exams 30 points each 60 points
A Final (cumulative) 30 points 30 points
Computer assignment 10 points 10 points
Total 100 points
Your final grade will be based upon your total accumulated points in three (3) exams and one (1) assignment. A scale will be established to determine your final grade based upon total accumulated points (for three exams and an assignment) at the end of the semester in accordance with the guidelines established by the Department of ISDS for 300-level courses. The typical distribution is based on:
A = 90% or better (90-100) C = 70% or better (70-79)
B = 80% or better (80-89) D = 60% or better (60-69) etc.
Grades are based on a straight scale A, B, C, etc. – NO PLUS/MINUS grades will be assigned.
2. Grades are based on your performance in the course and are not subject to negotiations for personal problems, work conflicts, or other reasons.
Examinations will cover material from the lectures, class discussions and homework exercises. Remember to bring a Scantron (882-E) to all tests. Examinations will start at the beginning of class on the scheduled day and will last one hour and fifteen minutes. Students who arrive late will not be given extra time.
3. No extra credit work will be offered to individual students.
There are No make-up exams. If a student misses an exam, the score for the final will be assigned to the missed exam.
No late assignments. Assignments submitted late will be marked down two (2) points per day starting at the end of class on W 11/12/08.
4. If you have questions regarding your examination (or assignment) grade, you must inquire about them within one (1) week of Scantrons/assignments being returned to the class.
5. Please review the University policy on academic dishonesty in the current catalog, page 484. Academic dishonesty, when detected, will result in an F for the course.
6. Required Tables: Page in Text: Page in Course-packet:
1) Binomial Distribution B-1 47
2) z-Table B-8 50
3) t-Table B-10 51
4) B-11 52
Issue Coverage:
i. Ethical issues.
ii. Global issues.
iii. Political, Social, Regulatory, Environmental issues.
iv. Technological.
v. Impact of Diversity.
Learning Outcomes for ISDS 361A
Overview:
After taking this course, students should understand how statistical methods are used to support the decision-making process. They should be able to choose and apply appropriate statistical tools, know how to properly obtain reliable data, and be able to apply statistical reasoning to interpret and report their results in the context of business problem-solving and decision making.
1. Be able to distinguish between samples and populations
2. Understand the various levels of measurement (nominal, ordinal, etc.)
3. Be able to calculate and interpret the descriptive measures: mean, median, mode, range, standard deviation for both samples and populations.
4. Be able to construct and interpret histograms and pie charts.
5. Be able to correctly apply the basic rules & concepts of probability (mutually exclusive events, independent events, conditional probability, addition law, complementary events, tree diagrams, Venn diagrams) to solve simple problems.
6. Understand the distinction between discrete and continuous measurements and random variables.
7. Be able to find probabilities of events defined in terms of a discrete random variable (e.g., P(X£6), etc.)
8. Be able to calculate and interpret the mean and standard deviation of a discrete random variable.
9. Understand how and when the “Empirical Rule” (aka “1,2,3 sigma rule”) applies to random variables.
10. Calculate probabilities for a binomial random variable (by formula and by Excel)
11. Be able to find probabilities associated with the standard normal distribution.
12. Be able to formulate and solve probability problems involving normal distributions.
13. Understand the concept of a “sampling distribution”.
14. Know how and when to apply the Central Limit Theorem for probability calculations involving the sample mean and the sample proportion.
15. Understand the concept of confidence intervals.
16. Be able to calculate confidence intervals for the population mean and know the appropriate distribution (z or t) to apply and the conditions necessary for choosing between these distributions.
17. Be able to determine the minimum necessary sample size for estimating the population mean or the population proportion.
18. Be able to correctly formulate a hypothesis test (i.e., to correctly choose the forms of null and alternative hypotheses).
19. Be able to conduct a hypothesis test involving either a population mean or proportion and to interpret the conclusion of the test.
20. Know how the p-value of a hypothesis test is calculated and interpreted.
21. Understand and interpret the two errors (Type I & II) associated with a hypothesis test.
22. Be able to calculate the estimated coefficients for a simple linear regression model.
23. Be able to conduct and interpret hypothesis tests about a simple linear regression model.
24. Be able to calculate confidence and prediction intervals in a simple linear regression analysis.
25. Be able to read and interpret computer (Excel) printouts from a simple linear regression analysis.
26. Be able to formulate a multiple regression model and interpret computer (Excel) printouts regarding the model.
27. Know how to construct and interpret a contingency table.
28. Be able to formulate and conduct hypothesis tests for one-way and two-way contingency tables using the chi-square tests.
Tentative Schedule
1 / 8/25 / Introduction; Graphical Representation of Data; Measures of Location - Central Tendency / 2
4.1
2 / 9/1 / Labor Day; Frequency Distributions and Grouped Data; / 4.7
3 / 9/8 / Dispersion (ii, iii); Probability, Probability Distribution / 4.2, 6.1
4 / 9/15 / Probability Dist.; Binomial Distribution (iv, v) / 7.1, 7.4
5 / 9/22 / Binomial Dist.; Normal/Continuous Distribution (iii, iv) / 7.4; 8.2
6 / 9/29 / Review (M); EXAM #1 (W –10/1) – Scantron 882E
7 / 10/6 / Sampling Distributions; Intervals Estimation (iii, v) / 9.1; 10
8 / 10/13 / Intervals Estimation – Proportions (iii, v) / 12.3
9 / 10/20 /
Hypothesis Testing (i, iii, iv)
/ 11.1, 11.2; 12.1, 12.310 / 10/27 /
Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing (i, iii, iv, v)
/ 12.1, 12.311 / 11/3 / Review (M); EXAM #2 (W –11/5) – Scantron 882E
12 / 11/10 / Chi-Square Tests (ii); Simple Linear Regression (iv) / 16.1, 16.2 Assignment
13 / 11/17 / Simple Linear Regression (iv); / 17
11/24 / Thanksgiving
14 / 12/1 / Simple Linear Regression; Multiple Regression (iv) / 17; 18
15 / 12/8 / Multiple Regression / 18
16 / 12/15 / FINAL (cumulative, comprehensive)
M - 12/15 – 9:30 (10:00); W - 12/17 – 5:00 (4:00); F – 12/19 - 12:00 (11:30)
Exam #1 – Week #6; Exam #2 – Week #11; Assignment – Week #12
Homework Exercises – Keller 8e
Solutions: http://business.fullerton.edu/isds/tdrezner
Chapter 4 – Measures of Location, Grouped Data, Dispersion:
4.1, 4.2, 4.4, 4.8a, 4.19, 4.20, 4.21;
Chapter 6 – Probability:
6.52, 6.54 b-e, 6.56;
Chapter 7 – Probability Distribution and Binomial Distribution:
7.10, 7.13, 7.18 a,b, 7.19a-c, 7.20, 7.22, 7.38, 7.90, 7.93, 7.94;
Chapter 8 – Normal Distribution:
8.15, 8.21, 8.22, 8.23, 8.34, 8.35, 8.36, 8.38, 8.42, 8.43, 8.56;
Chapter 10 – Confidence Intervals Estimation:
10.11, 10.43, 10.45;
Chapter 11 – Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing:
11.13, 11.14, 11.15;
Chapter 12 – Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing:
12.1, 12.18, 12.58, 12.66, 12.69, 12.70;
Chapter 15 – Chi Squared (c2) Tests:
15.1, 15.5, 15.17, 15.22, 15.23.
Simple Regression and Multiple Regression exercises will be assigned at a later date.
ISDS 361A -- Assignment
Due date: Wednesday, November 12th, 2008 at the beginning of class.
Choose ten (10) packaged items that are found in grocery stores such as coffee, cereal, soap etc. of specific brands and sizes. Visit three grocery stores and record the price of each item (you don't need to buy the items). Using an Excel spreadsheet, prepare a table of four columns and eleven rows. In row 1 enter the stores' names in columns 2-4. Starting at the second row, enter the product name followed by the corresponding prices for the three stores.
Example:
Store A / Store B / Store CProduct1 / $1.00 / $2.00 / $3.00
Product2 / $4.00 / $4.00 / $5.00
Product3 / $7.10 / $7.30 / $7.50
Product4 / $1.19 / $0.99 / $1.29
Product5 / $10.87 / $10.32 / $9.99
Product6 / $3.46 / $3.49 / $3.64
Product7 / $1.29 / $1.29 / $1.29
Product8 / $0.54 / $0.57 / $0.59
Product9 / $2.98 / $2.76 / $2.40
Product10 / $5.67 / $6.01 / $5.99
Your assignment is to prepare a report comparing prices among the three stores.
Office 2003: To perform the statistical analysis, choose "Tools" from the top bar, and then "Data analysis" (if you do not find data analysis choose "add-ins" and you will find it there). Choose "Descriptive statistics", and click "OK". For input range highlight the cells B1 to D11, or type in B1:D11. Tick the boxes labeled "Labels in first row", "Summary statistics", and "Confidence level for mean", and click "OK".
Office 2007: To perform the statistical analysis, choose "Data" from the top bar, and then "Data analysis" on the top right screen (if you do not find “data analysis,” add it in: choose the “Office” button (the round button on the top left corner), then choose “Excel Options,” then "add-ins" and then choose “Analysis ToolPak”). Choose "Descriptive statistics", and click "OK". For input range highlight the cells B1 to D11, or type in B1:D11. Tick the boxes labeled "Labels in first row", "Summary statistics", and "Confidence level for mean", and click "OK".
- Write a few paragraphs summarizing your findings about the three stores. Support your statements and conclusions with the analysis results.
- Calculate the 95% confidence interval for the mean price per store. In one sentence, explain the meaning of your confidence interval. Instructions are provided on my website.
Make sure to include a cover page with your: (1) name, (2) campus assigned I.D. number (CWID), and (3) class time. Staple your assignment – no loose pages. No hand-written assignments.
Excel Analysis Printout
Store A / Store B / Store CMean / 3.81 / Mean / 3.873 / Mean / 4.069
Standard Error / 1.036975302 / Standard Error / 0.992628441 / Standard Error / 0.960604497
Median / 3.22 / Median / 3.125 / Median / 3.32
Mode / #N/A / Mode / #N/A / Mode / 1.29
Standard Deviation / 3.279203833 / Standard Deviation / 3.138966744 / Standard Deviation / 3.037698142
Sample Variance / 10.75317778 / Sample Variance / 9.853112222 / Sample Variance / 9.22761
Kurtosis / 1.093221625 / Kurtosis / 0.455504048 / Kurtosis / -0.092306113
Skewness / 1.190271643 / Skewness / 1.045122852 / Skewness / 0.816979306
Range / 10.33 / Range / 9.75 / Range / 9.4
Minimum / 0.54 / Minimum / 0.57 / Minimum / 0.59
Maximum / 10.87 / Maximum / 10.32 / Maximum / 9.99
Sum / 38.1 / Sum / 38.73 / Sum / 40.69
Count / 10 / Count / 10 / Count / 10
Confidence Level(95.0%) / 2.345802896 / Confidence Level(95.0%) / 2.24548325 / Confidence Level(95.0%) / 2.17304
Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Assessment Statement:
The main purpose of the degree program at Mihaylo College of Business and Economics (MCBE) at Cal State Fullerton is to provide you with the knowledge and skills that prepare you for a successful career in business. In order to assist us in achieving this goal, we will use a number of assessment tools to track your progress throughout the MCBE curriculum. Please expect to participate in MCBE assessment activities in several of your courses while at MCBE. As you do so, you will assist us in identifying our program’s strengths and weaknesses as well as areas for potential improvement. In other words, you are making an important investment in the value of your degree.
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