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The Economist, February 23, 2006
Nigeria
A spectre of turmoil and conflict
Africa's oil giant is facing economic and political chaos on several fronts
Feb 23rd 2006
THE country is in a crisis. Last week, insurgents in the oil-rich Niger Delta region kidnapped nine foreign workers and blew up oil facilities there, forcing the world's eighth largest oil exporter to cut its output by a fifth. This week, in the Muslim-dominated north, mobs went on the rampage, burning churches and killing dozens in the most violent demonstrations sparked so far by the Danish cartoons lampooning the Prophet Muhammad. And in the east, Christian mobs have retaliated by torching mosques, killing dozens of Muslims and forcing thousands to flee their homes. These outbreaks of chaos in Africa's most populous country, 130m-strong, are an ugly omen as Nigeria heads towards national elections next year, when Olusegun Obasanjo is due to step down after two terms as president.
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), which claims to have carried out the delta attacks, says it will fight on until the central government agrees to let states that produce the oil control its revenue. MEND says it has the support of the biggest tribe in the delta, the Ijaw, who feel cheated out of wealth pumped from their lands, both by the central government and by the oil companies. MEND has not yet revealed its backers—probably shady but influential politicians.
Though Mr Obasanjo has sought to reassure foreign diplomats, the violence presents him with a big security dilemma. As a civilian president elected after military rule ended in 1999, he has staked his international reputation on making Nigeria more stable and prosperous. But years of neglect have left the armed forces with only a few boats to patrol the delta's vast network of swamps and creeks. Militants have been able to attack at will. The situation is complicated by the many armed groups and security officials who form cartels to export stolen oil to international criminal syndicates.
Mr Obasanjo, a former military ruler, was selected by Nigeria's political elite to stand as a consensus candidate in elections after the death of Nigeria's last military dictator, Sani Abacha, in 1998. But Mr Obasanjo has annoyed many senior Nigerian politicians by his anti-corruption campaigns, which they see as politically motivated, and by his apparent breaking of promises. “He's isolated everybody who initially gave him goodwill,” said a retired but still politically active general.
Mr Obasanjo has been cracking down at any hint of secessionist dissent and has arrested a powerful Ijaw militant for alleged treason. His government has also irked Muslim leaders by banning special police used in one northern state to implement sharia law. Nigerian politicians have long been adept at using religion to stir things up. Thousands of people have been killed since 12 northern states (Nigeria has 36 in all) declared sharia law in 2000.
Muslim power-brokers expect the ruling People's Democratic Party to name a Muslim northerner to succeed Mr Obasanjo, a Christian southerner. But Mr Obasanjo refuses to dispel suspicion that he may try to force through a constitutional amendment to stay in office for a third term. His supporters, including some state governors who may also extend their terms in order to plunder state coffers, say Mr Obasanjo offers Nigeria its only chance of seriously reducing corruption.
Oil firms and western governments, including the Americans, are watching nervously. This month John Negroponte, the overall head of America's intelligence services, said that if Mr Obasanjo stayed on he might “unleash major turmoil and conflict” that could lead to a “disruption of oil supply, secessionist moves by regional governments, major refugee flows, and instability elsewhere in west Africa”. Mr Obasanjo likes to parade himself abroad as a peace-loving democrat and yearns to inherit the mantle of Africa's leading elder statesman, Nelson Mandela. If so, he should promise not to run again.
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