ACFI Monitoring Report – July 2015
Background
· In 2012-13 and 2013-14 annual real growth of about 3.7% and 3.4% in the daily average ACFI were slightly higher than projections of 3.5% and 3.2%, respectively.
· In 2014-15, the annual real growth was 7.4%. This was higher than the projected real growth of 5.6%. Real growth in 2014-15 comprised of two parts – that attributable to the Workforce supplement redirection (projected at about 2.4%) and that attributable to frailty (projected at about 3.2%).
· In 2015-16, annual real (frailty) growth was projected at about 3.2%. Indexation was estimated at 1.3% implying a projected nominal growth of about 4.5%.
Summary of July 2015 Data
Ø Average daily ACFI subsidy year to date (July 2015) was $163.13 compared to a budget of $162.34.
Ø If real growth for the year continues at the rate observed year-to-date, annual growth will be 5.1%; this is higher than the budgeted 3.2%.
Ø New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT experienced a real growth higher than the projected national level of 5.4% for the period.
Ø Real cumulative average ACFI growth over the same period in the previous year is 4.0% for ADL, 4.3% for BEH and 10.4% for CHC.
Figure 1. Cumulative Monthly Trend of Daily Average ACFI Rates – 2015-16 Yeartodate Actual and Projected, 2015-16 Budget and 2014-15 Actual[1]
Table 1: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by State
State / Jul 2014 / Jul 2015 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year /Projected National / $152.03 / $162.34 / 6.8% / 5.4%*
Actual National / $152.03 / $163.13 / 7.3% / 5.9%
NSW / $148.28 / $160.53 / 8.3% / 6.9%
VIC / $154.16 / $166.13 / 7.8% / 6.4%
QLD / $151.91 / $161.18 / 6.1% / 4.8%
WA / $157.53 / $168.10 / 6.7% / 5.4%
SA / $156.44 / $165.14 / 5.6% / 4.2%
TAS / $148.86 / $157.01 / 5.5% / 4.1%
ACT / $149.09 / $163.64 / 9.8% / 8.4%
NT / $154.64 / $162.57 / 5.1% / 3.8%
*The difference between the year to date projected national figure presented in the table and the annual projection of 3.2% relates to the month of the report. The cumulative growth over the course of the year is budgeted at 3.2% by 30June2016.
Table 2: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Remoteness
Remoteness / Jul 2014 / Jul 2015 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year /Major Cities of Australia / $155.47 / $166.84 / 7.3% / 5.9%
Inner Regional Australia / $144.87 / $155.64 / 7.4% / 6.1%
Outer Regional Australia / $143.16 / $153.57 / 7.3% / 5.9%
Remote Australia / $129.65 / $131.35 / 1.3% / 0.0%
Very Remote Australia / $130.39 / $141.51 / 8.5% / 7.1%
Table 3: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Organization Type
Organisation Type / Jul 2014 / Jul 2015 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year /Not-For-Profit / $145.18 / $156.36 / 7.7% / 6.3%
For-Profit / $165.04 / $176.13 / 6.7% / 5.3%
Government / $137.32 / $143.97 / 4.8% / 3.5%
Table 4: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Provider Size
Provider Size* / Jul 2014 / Jul 2015 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year /0-41 / $134.72 / $135.01 / 0.2% / -1.1%
41-74 / $143.13 / $151.14 / 5.6% / 4.2%
74-131 / $147.58 / $158.91 / 7.7% / 6.3%
131-499 / $151.71 / $161.35 / 6.4% / 5.0%
500-999 / $156.08 / $168.40 / 7.9% / 6.5%
1000+ / $157.99 / $169.07 / 7.0% / 5.6%
*Based on full time equivalent residents per year for 2014-15. Only includes providers active during July 2014.
Table 5: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by ACFI Category
Average ACFI Category Subsidy / Jul 2014 / Jul 2015 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year /ADL / $82.16 / $86.55 / 5.3% / 4.0%
BEH / $25.12 / $26.54 / 5.6% / 4.3%
CHC / $44.74 / $50.05 / 11.9% / 10.4%
Table 6: Cumulative proportion of total days by ACFI Level and ACFI Category
ADL / BEH / CHCACFI Level / Jul 2014 / Jul 2015 / Change ADL / Jul 2014 / Jul 2015 / Change BEH / Jul 2014 / Jul 2015 / Change CHC
H / 47.7% / 52.1% / 4.4% / 57.9% / 61.6% / 3.7% / 42.7% / 52.9% / 10.2%
M / 30.4% / 30.2% / -0.2% / 20.9% / 20.7% / -0.1% / 28.1% / 25.7% / -2.4%
L / 20.4% / 16.7% / -3.7% / 14.8% / 12.3% / -2.5% / 23.3% / 17.4% / -5.9%
N / 1.5% / 1.0% / -0.5% / 6.4% / 5.3% / -1.1% / 5.9% / 4.0% / -1.8%
Table 7: Cumulative proportion of total days by ADL Scores and ADL Question
Jul 2014 / Jul 2015ADL Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Nutrition / 6.5% / 22.2% / 52.6% / 18.7% / 4.9% / 19.3% / 57.6% / 18.3%
Mobility / 4.1% / 7.4% / 37.9% / 50.6% / 3.0% / 5.4% / 37.1% / 54.5%
Personal Hygiene / 0.9% / 8.4% / 13.2% / 77.4% / 0.6% / 7.1% / 11.4% / 80.8%
Toileting / 8.1% / 15.9% / 13.5% / 62.6% / 5.6% / 14.0% / 13.9% / 66.5%
Continence / 19.7% / 3.8% / 5.7% / 70.8% / 16.8% / 3.2% / 5.2% / 74.9%
Table 8: Cumulative proportion of total days by BEH Scores and BEH Question
Jul 2014 / Jul 2015BEH Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Cognitive Skills / 12.5% / 29.3% / 30.4% / 27.8% / 10.8% / 28.5% / 32.3% / 28.5%
Wandering / 73.2% / 7.8% / 5.0% / 13.9% / 76.4% / 6.9% / 4.6% / 12.2%
Verbal / 15.1% / 13.7% / 16.9% / 54.3% / 13.3% / 12.5% / 17.7% / 56.5%
Physical / 27.5% / 14.4% / 14.6% / 43.5% / 26.0% / 14.3% / 16.1% / 43.5%
Depression / 42.7% / 29.1% / 14.7% / 13.4% / 39.1% / 30.1% / 15.8% / 14.9%
Table 9: Cumulative proportion of total days by CHC Scores
Jul 2014 / Jul 2015CHC Question / Q12A / Q12B / Q12C / Q12D / Q12A / Q12B / Q12C / Q12D
Q11A / 0.97% / 0.36% / 0.80% / 0.13% / 0.68% / 0.26% / 0.92% / 0.15%
Q11B / 4.54% / 7.47% / 7.04% / 5.83% / 3.10% / 5.72% / 7.13% / 8.10%
Q11C / 7.53% / 6.56% / 8.70% / 9.25% / 5.48% / 4.89% / 8.41% / 11.66%
Q11D / 3.27% / 9.94% / 20.37% / 7.24% / 2.03% / 8.36% / 24.58% / 8.55%
Figure 2. ACFI Category - Change in Proportion of Total Care Days Year to Date – Year on Year*
*Compares change in proportion of care days for the period of 1 June to 31 July between 2014/15 and 2015/16
[1] Lines represent the cumulative moving averages of the ACFI $ per day for the financial year to date – this is derived by dividing total ACFI claims year to date by the total number of claim days year to date.
The red line is the previous financial year’s actual monthly cumulative average ACFI $ per day (2015-16 prices) from July 2014 to June 2015
The blue line is the monthly cumulative average ACFI $ per day from July 2015 that would be needed to meet the budgeted estimate of 3.2% at June 2016
The black line is actual cumulative monthly average ACFI $ per day for 2015-16 with the dashed line showing a projection of the actuals