SOCY2100 Migration lectures through 2/6/08
MIGRATION
I. One move is two events: in-migration and out-migration
A. in-migration = immigration
B. out-migration = emigration
C. Place you left is the donor location or origin or source
D. Place you are going to is the destination or target
II. Definitions related to types of moves and movers
A. Mobility – spatial movement of people
1. Includes commuting to work and travel as well as changes of residence
B. Migration / move – any permanent change of residence
C. Mover – someone who has changed residence
D. Migrant – a mover whose move crosses an important boundary
1. For the U.S. Census Bureau, someone who changes counties
E. In-migrant / immigrant – someone who has moved to a particular location
F. Out-migrant / emigrant – someone who has moved from a particular location
G. Net migration = # in-migrants - # out-migrants
1. It turns out to be easier to measure net migration than both in-migration and out-migration
a. For instance, it is easier to know that a dorm has more students this year than last year than to know how many new people moved into the dorm and how many people moved out
H. Total / gross migration = # in-migrants + # out-migrants
1. Sociologically interesting for its implications for anomie
I. International migration – a move from one country to another
J. Internal migration – a move within a country
1. Policy makers tend to look at international and internal migration differently
a. So do migrants
K. Return migration – a move from what had been a destination back to the original origin
III. Flows vs stocks
A. Migration flow refers to in- and out-migrations within a time period, usually a year
B. Migration stock refers to the total number of people currently in a place who got there by migrating
EXAMPLE: flow for a university equals the number of new students plus the numbers of graduates and students who leave school during a year. Stock refers to the number of students, however long they have been there
IV. Measures
A. Crude Rates of Flow
1. Crude Net-migration Rate
# in-migrants - # out-migrants
= ────────────────── * 1000
midyear population
2. Crude In-migration Rate
# in-migrants
= ────────────────── * 1000
midyear population
3. Crude Out-migration Rate
# in-migrants
= ────────────────── * 1000
midyear population
4. Total migration / Gross migration / Migration Turnover Rate
# in-migrants + # out-migrants
= ────────────────── * 1000
midyear population
B. Specific (i.e., not Crude) Rates of Flow
1. Age-specific Migration Rate (ASMigR)
# x year old migrants
ASMigR(x) = ───────────── * 1000
# x year olds
a. ASMigR(x) can be interpreted as the probability that someone x years old will migrate during the year
b. The relationship between age and ASMigR is one of the most fundamental phenomena in the analysis of migration:
The probability of migration is highest among young adults. The next most likely to move are young children. [Why?]
C. Ratios
1. Migration Effectiveness Ratio
# in-migrants ─ # out-migrants
= ────────────────── * 100
# in-migrants + # out-migrants
a. What fraction of the moves end up adding to the population
2. Migration Ratio
# in-migrants ─ # out-migrants
= ──────────────────
# births - # deaths
a. The size of net migration compared with net natural increase
b. Migration ratio = 1.0 means net migration = net natural increase
EX: California's 2001-2002 net migration ratio = 1.04; 2006-7 = -.01;
what happened?
EX: West Virginia had the highest 2006-7 at 30.6, mostly because it had a very low net natural increase (only 102) (why?). SC was second at 3.2, and Nevada third (2.5)
3. Percent of total growth due to migration
# in-migrants ─ # out-migrants
= ─────────────────────────────── * 100
(# in-migrants + # out-migrants) + (# births - # deaths)
net migration
= ───────── * 100
growth
a. The size of net migration compared with net natural increase
EX: Alabama in 2006-7: growth = 37,611 net migration = 22,504
Pct growth due to migration = 60%
[Looking back] If AL’s pop = 4.5 million, what’s its growth rate? When will its population be 9 million (assuming the growth rate doesn’t change)?
xx. Stock measures
1. Percent non-citizen
2. Percent foreign born
Mechanisms
II. Three general approaches to migration
A. Examination of reasons for migration
B. Examination of origin-destination patterns
C. Consideration of whether or not boundaries were crossed, especially boundaries between countries
III. Reasons for migration
A. Two types of reasons: push factors and pull factors
B. Push factors are factors that make you want to leave your origin
1. E.g., lack of work, lack of land, famine, persecution of various sorts, crummy climate
C. Pull factors are factors that attract you to your destination
1. E.g., a job, demand for your skills, good climate, more congenial cultural climate, available land, being captured and forcibly taken to the destination
D. For most Americans, job-related reasons (push and pull) are the most important reasons for crossing county lines, especially long moves; housing-related are most important for shorter moves
E. Push and pull operate at personal (rational choice) and structural levels
1. Individuals make “rational choices” about moving
2. Rationality is limited
a. Thomas theorem is alive and well in migration: people move on the basis of what they think the destination will be like, not on the basis of what it is actually like
3. Research shows that often it is actually the family that is making choices
a. Sometimes they’ll send a daughter instead of a son because even though the son will make more abroad, daughters tend to send back more
4. STRUCTURAL
WAGE GAP GRADIENT
Mexico-US among the greatest
Migrants don’t make the average, of course
POPULATION PRESSURE (MORE WORKERS THAN JOBS)
AGING WORK FORCE IN TARGET COUNTRIES
MORE EDUCATED WORK FORCE IN TARGET COUNTRIES
GLOBALIZATION
PREEXISTING PATTERNS OF MIGRATION
IV. WHY NOT?
A.Bonds to current location
1. Control theory links to legitimate society
a. Attachments
b. Investments
c. Involvements
d. Beliefs
2. Young adults tend to have weakest bonds
B. Norms
1. Elder care
2. Family unity
a. Nuclear and perhaps even extended family should stay together
3. Ethnocentrism
4. On the other hand, norms can be push factors
a. "Fads" (like semester abroad now in US higher ed, continental tour for high class Brits in 19th century, time in US for Mexican young men today)
b. Life cycle norms may include moves
1) Neolocal residence
2) Going away to college
3) Military
C. Other obstacles
1. Physical
a. Distance & terrain (like oceans, deserts)
1) Make trip expensive and/or dangerous
2. Economic
a. Travel costs
b. Setup in the new place
c. Opportunity costs
1). Those who are going to do well where they are may stay
3. Legal
a. Emigration laws - limits on leaving
1) e.g., USSR and Eastern Europe during Cold War
b. Immigration laws - limits on entry
1) Often reflect nativism and xenophobia
1.1) Nativism - preference for natives, usually combined with dislike of foreigners
1.2) Xenophobia - fear of foreigners
4. Cultural
5. Personality
a. Really need to be risk-tolerant
b. Ambition helps, too
V. Categories of migrants
VI. Origin-Destination Patterns
A. An important principle: at any time migration tends to be concentrated in a limited number of origin-destination paths
1. Migration is not random or haphazard
2. These paths are called streams
B. Important historical migrations
1. Perhaps most important: movement from Europe to North America of 45 million people from the early 1600s to 1900s
2. Also of importance for US: movement of 15 million slaves from Africa to the new world from the 1500s into the 1800s
VII. International vs internal migration
A. Governments get a lot more concerned about moves across national boundaries than about other moves
VI. Migration Data
A. We have good information about births and deaths, but lousy information about migration
1. One reason is that the agency that gathers statistics most directly, the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), is also an enforcement agency, so many immigrants have good reason to want to avoid them
VII. Important general facts about migration
A. Those most likely to move are young adults
B. Men tend to make longer moves than women
C. International migration is not "free." Countries erect substantial barriers to migration in attempts to control the composition of their population
VIII. Migration and the US
A. About 17 percent of Americans move every year
1. Looked at another way, on average an American moves every 6 years
B. Peak moving ages are 20-29
C. Most moves, especially long distance moves, are for job-related reasons
D. Migration to the US in the early 1900s had greater impact on population than any migration since
1. High sex ratio
E. Current legal migration to the US has a low sex ratio (around 75)
F. Illegal migration to the US is substantial and predominantly male
Consequences of migration
Economic benefits to hosts of migration
[Mostly lifeted from Peter Stalker. 2001. The No-Nonsense Guide to International Migration. Oxford, UK: New Internationalist Publications. Chapter 4 “The Economic Benefits of Immigration”]
I. Prima facie immigrants generate growth
A. Except for Japan, all major expanding economies have lots of immigrants
[China? Yes, if only foreign professionals/businessmen]
OBJECTION: maybe the immigrants don’t cause growth; maybe growth causes immigration
II. Immigrants generate work for other people
A. Lump of labor fallacy – “a belief that the number of jobs in any country is fixed” p. 64
1. If this is true, then a job taken by an immigrant means a job lost by an indigene (i.e., someone already there)
2. That is, jobs are a zero sum game
3. The fallacy is, as advertised, fallacious
B. Example jobs created by immigration
1. Border Patrol agents
2. Food producers – more people require more food
3. Food retailers
a. Also people who sell paper to retailers for receipts, truckers, etc.
______
Lump of Labor Fallacy
______
Lump of Labor Fallacy – there is a fixed number of jobs
Essentially argues that employment is a zero sum game
In fact, local job markets grow and shrink in response to:
-- the state of the economy
-- local demand for goods and services
-- decisions by employers to expand, shrink, or move in or out
Positive net migration can create jobs
-- More people require more retail sales
-- Increased demand for governmental services
-- Willingness to work for less can lead to more being hired
______
III. Employers like immigrants better than the alternative
A. Employers are, of course, very important
B. They could raise wages or send work elsewhere
1. A Backman pet peeve: “No one else will do the work”
a. What they mean is, “No one else will do the work at a wage we are willing to pay and under working conditions we are willing to provide”
b. Working conditions are also key
1. Many of these jobs are 3Ds – difficult, dirty, and dangerous
1. Why not raise wages?
a. Partly GP [general principle] – wages are a cost
b. Partly out of concern that maintaining the hierarchy will require giving everyone raises
2. Why not send elsewhere
a. Obviously some is sent elsewhere
b. Employer might not want to relocate him- or herself
c. Some of the work (cleaning, repairs, harvesting) is difficult to relocate
IV. Types of jobs
A. High demand at the top and bottom of the hierarchy
B. Professionals (the top)
1. Many LDCs [less developed countries] don’t have enough local talent
a. E.g., small African countries
b. Sometimes foreign “assistance” comes with the requirement that folks from the assisting country be in charge of the work and/or the “donated” equipment
2. Many MDCs [more developed countries] have needs
a. In rapidly growing segments like IT
b. In parts of the country considered locally undesirable
(1) Rural areas
(2) Central cities
C. 3-D jobs (the bottom)
1. 3-Ds: dirty, dangerous, and difficult
2. Increased education, lowered birth rates have reduced the usual pool [less educated and younger workers]
3. The natives are familiar and are likely to feel any cultural stigmas associated with these jobs
4. Construction (throughout the world)
5. Dual labor market theory
OVERHEAD
Dual Labor Market Theory
______
There are two sectors in the labor market: the primary and the secondary
Primary labor market – jobs are relatively safe, secure, and reasonably paid, with benefits
Secondary labor market – jobs tend to be less secure, low paid, and without benefits. Often “dirty, difficult, and dangerous” (3-d jobs)
Some social scientists identify a third sector, the underground labor market – largely off the books, these jobs evade all legal protections
V. Managing peaks and troughs
A. Lots of peaks and troughs
1. Agriculture
a. e.g., old travels of migrant workers
2. Construction – western New York two seasons: winter and construction
3. Boom and bust economic cycles
B. How to handle trough
1. Not renew contracts
2. Lay off
a. Think dual economy
C. How to handle peaks
1. Turn on the spigot
2. Reduce immigration enforcement
3. Some countries good at it (Canada, Germany, Singapore)
VI. Allow better use of native workers
A. Freeing workers for higher paid work
1. Especially child care workers
VII. Do immigrants depress wages
A. (Not quite an answer) They don’t seem to affect unemployment
1. cf. lump of labor
B. In general there seems to be little effect
1. Those most hurt are the previous batch of immigrants
VIII. Do immigrants use more welfare?
A. In the short term, probably
1. Depends in part on how you count education
2. They’re younger, poorer, more uninsured, and they often have children
a. Young adults in general make less money and are more likely to have children; on the other hand, they are likely to be healthier
B. Illegals tend not to apply for welfare
1. But they pay taxes (if their employer is scrupulous)
C. In the long run they add to the national economy
IX. Immigrants, the age structure, and the economy
A. Immigrants are filling the age structure for MDCs
1. Especially important for welfare state countries of Europe
a. Low birth rates, high services to the elderly will require enormous contributions from working age folks; immigrants are adding to the working age population, which in the future will be critical to maintaining the welfare state
SOCY2100 lecture(s) on migration. 10 of 10
C.B. Backman 2/6/08