Appendix

Incidence reference / Adjusted / Notes
Diabetic Retinopathy
Insulin treatment
Normal to NPDR / No / 0.065 13,14
Yes / 0.114 13,14
NPDR to PDR / No / 0.024 13,14
Yes / 0.037 13,14
NPDR to ME / 0.031 15 / 0.015 / Rates of progression to ME are reduced by 50% compared to those cited in the literature since there are two separate paths to ME.
PDR to ME / 0.025 15 / 0.012
NPDR to Blindness / No / 0.017 16,17 / 0.0022* / The incidence in the literature is for one eye. Since the two eyes are not independent, the incidence of blindness for two eyes was set to 40% of that for one eye. Since there are 3 paths to blindness, we divided by 3 to obtain the incidence for each path.
Yes / 0.014 16,17 / 0.0019*
PDR to Blindness / No / 0.008† / 0.001*
Yes / 0.016 16,17 / 0.002*
ME to blindness / 0.062 16,17 / 0.008*

NPDR = nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy

PDR = proliferative diabetic nephropathy

ME = macular edema

†: estimated as half of that for insulin-treated group

*: estimated from WESDR data

Diabetic Nephropathy
Normal to MA / 0.051 18
Normal to Proteinuria / Age (years)
30-49 / 0.002-0.010 19 / The rates are also a function of the duration of diabetes.
50-59 / 0.005-0.014 19
60-69 / 0.010-0.036 19
70+ / 0.014-0.025 19
MA to Proteinuria / 0.103 20
Proteinuria to ESRD with dialysis / 0.014 21
ESRD with dialysis to / White
ESRD with transplant / Men / 0.068-0.240 22 / The rates are also a function of age.
Women / 0.004-0.240 22
Black, Hispanic
Men / 0.006-0.089 22
Women / 0.002-0.077 22
Asian
Men / 0.004-0.077 22
Women / 0.001-0.100 22
Other
Men / 0.009-0.019 22
Women / 0.003-0.017 22

MA = microalbuminuria

ESRD = end-stage renal disease

Diabetic Neuropathy
Normal to clinical neuropathy / 0.0518 24
Clinical neuropathy to amputation / 0.0113 25
Coronary Heart Disease
Normal to angina pectoris / 0.0067 12
Angina to MI / 0.055 26
Normal to MI/cardiac arrest / Based on 30 1-exp(-q), we have simplified q to be a function of age for each of the four groups defined by gender and diabetes.
MI/cardiac arrest given history of MI/cardiac arrest / 0.116 27
Stroke
Normal to stroke / Based on 37 1-exp(-q*1.145), we have simplified q to be a function of age for each of the four groups defined by gender and diabetes.
Recurrent stroke / 0.104 31
Death
Death due to ESRD / Men
with dialysis / <=65 yrs / 0.093 23
>65 yrs / 0.159 23
Women
<=65 yrs / 0.091 23
>65 yrs / 0.159 23
Death due to ESRD / Men
with kidney transplant / <=65 yrs / 0.050 23
>65 yrs / 0.096 23
Women
<=65 yrs / 0.049 23
>65 yrs / 0.105 23
Death due to stroke / 0.245 12
Death due to angina / IGT / 0.016 26
Diabetes / 0.048 26
Death due to MI/cardiac / IGT / 0.170 12
arrest / Diabetic / 0.503 26
Death due to history of / Men / 0.022-0.073 28 / The rates are a function of age
MI/Cardiac arrest / Women / 0.055-0.077 28
Death due to other causes / White / The rates are a function of age. The mortality rates are for the general U.S. population  30 years of age.
Men / 0.002-0.325 9
Women / 0.001-0.293 9
Black
Men / 0.005-0.257 9
Women / 0.002-0.244 9
Other
Men / 0.004-0.315 9
Women / 0.001-0.288 9