Question #1: Along Roads and Along Rivers Many Areas Seem to Have Lost Vegetation and Some

LAB 3: Land Use Change Analysis and SLEUTH Exercise

Leigh Jones, Nathan Lindquist, Zachary Shahan

November 13, 2006

Question #1: Along roads and along rivers many areas seem to have lost vegetation and some areas seem to have gained vegetation. This seems to indicate that agricultural lands are being converted to urban and semi-urban land, with most of the land losing vegetation due to urban development but some of it regaining vegetation that was lost when the land was converted to agricultural uses.

Question #2: The change analysis shows that the areas that underwent the greatest change were along roads and along the river.

Question #3: Based on the Lee-Sallee metric, the Sioux Falls coefficient sets fit the Macon County data best. If we had used the Fmatch metric instead, the Sioux Falls coefficient sets still would have fit best.

Question #4: Values for the Lee-Sallee metric are probably not very high for a couple of reasons: (1) factors accounted for in the model probably influence growth differently in Sioux Falls than in Macon County; and (2) some factors that influence change are not accounted for in the model (i.e. local regulatory tools and changes in the availability and use of such tools, cultural and natural amenities, economic trends on the local or regional level, the possibility of infill development).

Question #5: Our prediction shows a lot of growth along roads. Vegetation grew a bit in non-growth areas. The prediction looks reasonable to us.

Question #6: To avoid just having growth in the form of urban sprawl along highways, we would recommend engaging in land use planning and adopting some land use regulatory tools (such as zoning), in order to concentrate growth in preferred areas and to protect others areas from uncontrolled and uncoordinated growth.

Question #7: Some of the shortcomings and weaknesses of applying SLEUTH to Macon County are that: (1) SLEUTH assumes a continuation of trends in land use change; (2) projecting changes in Macon County using data from other areas (such as Sioux Falls) will not necessarily result in a good comparison because different areas are unique and their growth is influenced by different factors in different ways depending on the people and the values of the area; and (3) SLEUTH doesn’t account for a variety of important factors influencing change (see Q#4).