Sunday, June 16, 2013
I was able to attend only the first day the highlight of which was the live video speech and Q&A session with the Honorable Rick Snyder, Governor of Michigan. He demonstrated a real grasp of the issues and sincere interests in having Michigan not only lead in the implementation of v2v but, more importantly, collision avoidance smart driving technology. Also a highlight was Erik Coelingh from Volvo Car Corp.who repeated Volvo’s stated mission of having zero people killed in Volvo cars by 2020. Kudos to Volvo’s commitment to such a laudable goal. He also noted that Volvo’s “City Safe” low speed (under 30km/h (20mph)) collision avoidance system, which has been standard equipment on Volvo’s S60, S80, XC60 and XC70 models have experienced nearly a 30% less at-fault claims. (My comment: From this basis, the additional features in the 2014 MB E & S-class should enable those vehicles to achieve upwards of 50% less at-fault claims.) Dr. Jeremy Salinger described Cadillac’s research achievements in automated driving which are impressive; however, it is obvious by visiting that Cadillac is reluctant to deliver these safety features to its customers. Cadillac’s version of “City Safe”, called “Driver Assist”, seems to be available only on the Premium and Platinum versions of the 2013 XTS. The incremental cost is $2,395. The site does state that the system “will be available” on the 2014 CTS. Scott Nelson from MILE Auto Insurance stated that auto insurance companies tend to operate on a 5% profit margin. He suggested that the safety implications of driverless cars might result in a substantial decline of liabilities. He speculated that Progressive’s cost of revenue (claims paid) for auto coverage might decline from $14B to $4B (if the insured fleet were transformed to NHTSA level 4 cars, I presume). Bryan Reimer of MIT gave the initial keynote address but seemed to set a negative tone with several references to “slowing down” which to me sounded like a “Kodak” statement. He talked about “deployment” of driverless cars as if to suggest that the public sector was in control of the introduction of these smart driving technologies. I couldn’t disagree more. This isn’t going to be a deployment, but rather a consumer adoption of, in Schumpeter’s words“… the new technology…that delivers a substantial improvement in price and performance over the existing technology…”.
Sneak peek at what Dr. Jerome Lutin, former Senior Director at NJ Transit will say at the symposium entitled: Application of Autonomous Driving Technology to Transit - Functional capabilities for Safety and Capacity: Star Ledger headline on June 14, 2013: “Hell ride: Lost NJ Transit bus arrives nearly 2 hours late to NYC.” Need we say more?
Safety:
- Industry-wide average of 63,000 bus crashes per year, resulting in 14,000 injuries and 351 fatalities.
- NJ TRANSIT had four pedestrian fatalities in 2012 and 217 injured in bus incidents.
- NJ TRANSIT reported paying out $43.2 million in injury and damage claims in FY 2012. Assuming 34% of claims are allocated to Bus Operations on the basis of passenger miles suggests $14.85 million in bus claims. With an owned and contracted fleet totaling 2,403 buses (excluding 624 buses leased to private carriers), the average claims cost is estimated $6,180. per vehicle per year for 2012
- Requiring a Mercedes “Intelligent Drive” “NHTSA Level 2” (collision avoidance + pedestrian + recognition + steering assist + lane keeping + vehicle following) could be expected to reduce claims by at least 50% (and deliver substantial capacity improvements NY-NJ commuter operations). This package is currently priced at $2,800. Inclusion of these elements in the 2015 bus procurement specifications could be expected to incur a similar incremental price. If so, the RoI is less than a year. Even if one assumes that such technologies, when applied to buses might command a factor of 3 premium, the RoI, just from a safety liability standpoint is extremely short relative to the life of the bus. Moreover, the capacity and operational improvements are free. A complete no-brainer!
AAA: Voice-to-text devices worse driver distraction than cell phonesAn in-depth scientific study from AAA finds that using voice-to-text electronic devices is a far greater distraction for drivers than talking on cell phones, even if they are hands free. The study measured brain waves and reaction times of drivers, both in driving simulators and on real roads, in order the measure the comparable levels of distraction. Full story by CNN
Measuring Cognitive Distraction in the AutomobileWASHINGTON, D.C., (June 12, 2013)–Hands-free technologies might make it easier for motorists to text, talk on the phone, or even use Facebook while they drive, but new findings from the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety show dangerous mental distractions exist even when drivers keep their hands on the wheel and their eyes on the road. Full story by AAA Public relations
Measuring Cognitive Distraction in the AutomobileAAA Foundation Report
My comment: The most effective way to alleviate the safety aspects of cognitive distractions on driving is for the rapid adoption of Level 2 and above smart driving technologies in all new vehicles and the retrofitting of vehicles equipped with electronic steering, braking and throttle actuators with the sensing and compute technology to certify them as Level 2+ vehicles. The sooner Level 2 technologies populate the vehicle fleet, the sooner we will eradicate the driver distraction problem. If these technologies are not adopted, then Draconian measures aimed at disabling wireless devices in vehicles can be expected “Regulators”. For more comments see my talk @ the 20th annual meeting of ITS-NY.
CMU Cadillac SUV Driving ItselfResearchers at Carnegie Mellon University have joined the quest to develop a driverless car. And at first sight, the Cadillac looks like any other SUV on the road. According to Professor Raj Rajkumar and his Carnegie Mellon team, the Cadillac prototype is the most advanced example of driverless technology yet produced.Full story by Capitol Hill Daily
Calendar of Upcoming Events:
The Premier Road Vehicle Automation Event in North America. July 16-19, ’13 Stanford University, Palo Alto, CATransportation Research Board’s premier multidisciplinary research and policy conference focused on Road Vehicle Automation. If you are actively involved in road vehicle automation and would like to actively contribute to the success of this conference by becoming a patron or sponsoring one of the meals, please contact me at .
June 26-28, Gold Coast, Australia
Smart Driving Cars
Thursday, June 6, 2013
NHTSA Preliminary Statement of Policy Re: Automated Vehicles the details of this preliminary policy. I highly recommend that you read it. My interpretation:
Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012Not a pretty picture. Early estimates show a 5.3% increase in fatalities over ’11 to 34,080 due to a very large YoY increase in Q1 (12.6%) and a an extremely large increase of greater than 15% in the Northeast region. While some of this may be attributable to increased VMT, Fatalities per VMT also increased.
Smart Driving Cars
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
“Intelligent Drive: networked with all senses
The Road Ahead: Advanced Vehicle Technology and its Implications
May152013 2:30 PM Russell Senate Office Building - 253
Archived webcast Starts @ 26:20 AlainK Analysis
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Smart Driving Cars
Thursday, May 14, 2013
Mercedes “Hard to Imagine” Commercial.I watch little TV, but I am pleased thatMercedes continues to hit prime spots with this ground-breaking commercial. NBC had it right after the running of the Kentucky Derby and it aired several times in the New York market during the Rangers Playoff games. They are even playing this spot on during the Daily Show. They must be seeing traction.
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Uncongested Mobility for All: NJ’s Area-wide aTaxi SystemPart 1, The Demand for MobilityThis year my students and I have been conducting a quantitative assessment of the mobility implications of the ultimate in Smart Driving Cars. The task was simple: How well could a truly safe fleet of self-driving cars serve the full spectrum of personal mobility needs…
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Smart Driving Cars
Thursday, May 2, 2013
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Smart Driving Cars
Friday, April 25, 2013
Mercedes is 1st Mover and Lifts Bar with ‘14 Mercedes E-Class Safety FeaturesSupported by the following TV Commercials(If you haven’t seen them on TV they are worth watching “
“Hard to Imagine” Commercial “Clown” Commercial
From the Public Sector: My responseto the US DoT onSurface Transportation System Automation(
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Smart Driving Cars
Friday, April 19, 2013
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Smart Driving Cars
Monday, April14, 2013
The Business Case for SmartDrivingCars: For the consumer, SmartDrivingCars have three main values: increased safety, comfort and convenience. Of these safety is most easily quantified because damages are largely adjudicated in monetary terms. AAA estimates that traffic fatalities and injuries amounted to $256B in 2011, or a cost of about $1,328 in ‘05 dollarsfor each licensed driver. Of this amount approximately 50% ($664) is paid by private insurance, the pass-through portion of insurance premiums. Individual crash victims absorb 26% ($340) of the cost (basically the deductible of what the insured has to absorb if involved in an accident), other 3rd parties absorb 14% ($185), the Federal treasury absorbs 6% ($80) and local municipalities 4% ($50). Google’s simulation of the operation of its self-driving car on the range of real crash scenarios resulted in a forecast of 81% fewer fatalities and 65% fewer injuries. This substantial reduction in car crashes would savein the US$183 billion annually. Moreover, these safety improvements would be enjoyed proportionally by each owner/user of a Google car. Thus, the insurer of the average licensed driver switching to a “Google car” could expect to reduce its pass-through liabilities by an average of $475 per year. Since these are simply pass-though dollars, one could expect that an insurance price-leader might readily offer discounts of up to, say, $450, keeping the expected remaining $25 for its “generosity”. The Google car user would also forgo $247 in expected “deductible self-insured” obligations.
The $450 insurance discount could readily finance, if not the expensive Google “lidars”, the lower cost radars and cameras contemplated by the auto industry for its initial wave of automated lane keeping and “always-on” collision monitoring and avoidance systems. For example, the Mercedes “jam-assist” system is expected to be available on 2014 models as a $3,000 “driver assistance safety option”. While jam-assist doesn’t have all of the features of a Google car, it may be able to capture as much as two-thirds of the safety benefits through the collisions that jam-assist can be expected to avoid during the car’s lifetime. If so proven, then the $300 discount that Flo, or the Gecko, or Good Hands or the General or some other insuer can readily offer would essentially finance this $3,000 safety feature. In fact Flo should escort you to the Mercedes dealer and pay for the option if you agree to buy a Mercedes and continue your current policy payments. (Remember, in giving Mercedes $300 per year over say 12 years, she is also keeping that $25 “generosity” for her effort, so she is happy.) In addition to substantially reducing the probability that this car is going to kill you, what’s in it for you? Well,how about the two-thirds of the $247 self-insurance expected obligation that you would avoideach year. More importantly you get the anxiety-relief that flows from having driving assistance while traveling in some of the most tedious, boring and unpleasant roadway conditions. Finally, society wins because we can’t really place a value on the injuries and fatalities that will be prevented. They are priceless!
Going all the way with Google Cars (or even just two thirds of the way with “jam-assist”) would mean for New Jersey an annualavoidance of 500 (340) fatalities and 28,000 (19,000) injuries “valued” at $3.55 ($2.38) Billion per year.
We MUST make this happen. Everybody wins.
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Smart Driving Cars
Monday, March 31, 2013
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Smart Driving Cars
Monday, March 25, 2013
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Smart Driving Cars
Monday, March 18, 2013
European Update: Workshop: Automation in Road Transport (contains links to participants & presentations)
….As background if you haven’t read it: from June 29,2011: Definition of necessary vehicle and infrastructure systems for Automated DrivingFinal report SMART 2010/0064
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Smart Driving Cars
Monday, March 11, 2013
Best videos from Workshop: Automation in Road Transport (contains links to participants & presentations)
Automated Steering Avoidance of imminent collision on Frozen Lake done Feb 23, 2013. Videos of automated collision avoidance maneuvers involving only steering followed by Volvo Platooning video
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Smart Driving Cars
Monday, March 4, 2013
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Smart Driving Cars
Thursday, February 28, 2013
This is BIG!!!
Continental and BMW Group Working Together to Develop Freeway-Grade Highly Automated Driving
BMW Press Release Continental Press Release
This is BIG, not only because they have “an agreement to jointly develop an electronic co-pilot for this purpose”, but because…
- It aligns a component supplier with a manufacturer. Where does this leave Daimler and VW/Audi? To join up with Bosch?? What about Delphi? Join back with GM on this one?? Where does this leave the other manufacturers; will they align? The competitive race to attract consumers to the showroom has really heated up.
- They’ve realized that safety is now clothed in comfort & convenience. Together, they make a powerful message to the car buying public. This technology will draw people into the showrooms. The wake-up call was delivered by the emergent competitor, , rather than government edicts or rule-makings. “… [I]n capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology…- competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Joseph A Shumpeter(1883-1950)
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Smart Driving Cars
Thursday, February 21, 2013
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Smart Driving Cars
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Smart Driving Cars
Friday, February 8, 2013
Smart Driving Cars
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Smart Driving Cars
Thursday, January 31, 2013
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