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DRAFT!

Syllabus

Methods of Regional Planning Analysis

(M of RPA)

Abstract:

The course is designed to familiarize the student with the collection and statistical analysis of data for planning purposes. The intent of the course is to provide opportunity for the definition, conceptualization, design and implementation of research and analysis, with emphasis on the latter. The planning methods covered are generally applicable to planning problems in more than one field and are considered basic tools for most planning analysis. The course includes quantitative and qualitative methods for analyzing neighborhoods, cities, and regions for planning purpose. The course introduces a set of tools that are widely used in urban and regional planning practice. The focus is on the development of an operational understanding of techniques for applied demography, population analysis and forecasting techniques relevant for small geographic areas; techniques for regional and local economic analysis, shift-share analysis, economic base model, location quotient analysis and input-output analysis; urban applications of economics, and decision analysis. Students will used data from various regions of Bulgaria and various types of models commonly used to analyze regional development and planning, including regression models, cost-benefit analysis, simulation, descriptive and inferential statistics, mapping, observation, and others. Strengths and weaknesses of those methods are also being considered. Topics related to the structure and assumptions of the models, model development, and their applications in regional planning will be discussed. Where appropriate, computer implementation emphasizing statistical, econometric models is considered. Required lab work exposes students to essential microcomputer applications and builds skills in writing and analysis.

The aims of this course are to:

1.  Provide methods and practical tools for collecting and analyzing information used in urban and regional planning practice, demography, and regional economics.

2.  Provide knowledge about various quantitative methods for analyzing, forecasting and planning in regional development.

Upon completion of this course, participants from district & municipality administrations should be able to:

1.  Use the basic methods and corresponded software for collecting statistical data and to prepare information for planning purposes, including primary and secondary sources, internet and organizing own investigation.

2.  Analyzing data and extracting important information concerning regional development. Making demographic analysis of the region and prognoses for development.

3.  Discussing the structure and assumptions of the models, model development, and their applications in regional planning.

Syllabus Contents

1.  Research design and basic statistical methods. Introduction to methods of policy analysis and planning. Communicating quantitative information. Research design in planning analysis: components of research design; validity; types of research design. Basic descriptive and inferential statistics: data types and scales; basic descriptive statistics; sampling; introduction to hypothesis testing; types of hypothesis tests; contingency analysis.

2.  Regression analysis. Simple linear regression analysis: overview of linear regression; major concepts; mechanics of linear regression; statistical tests on equation and coefficients; interpretation of coefficients; nonlinear relationships.

3.  Multivariate regression analysis. Introduction to multiple regression analysis- cross sectional data; time series data. Model building and interpretation of results. Other multivariate techniques; probity analysis; discriminate analysis.

4.  Demographic methods and analysis. Examination of demographic structure of regions, and change in demographic structure (population size, rate of growth, socioeconomic composition). Basic demographic rates (birth, death, migration, and interregional population dynamics), sources of demographic data, how to determine quality of data, etc. Simple population projection for a region. Demographic analysis: extrapolation techniques; cohort-survival analysis; macro projections; migration analysis.

5.  Regional economic analysis techniques. Community (and regional) economic analysis: descriptive community (regional) statistics; development theories; overview of analytical tools; export base theory; location quotients and minimum requirement techniques; regional input-output analysis; extensions of input-output analysis; inter-regional & multi-regional I-O; location quotients, shift-share analysis; social accounting matrix analysis; computable general equilibrium analysis; conjoined I/O econometric models. Qualitative policy research methods.

6.  Urban applications. Urban planning techniques and tools: measuring inequality shopping, gravity and retail location models; transportation; trip generation and distribution models.

7.  Decision analysis. Informing real, risky decisions. Quantitative analysis of planning options, relevant uncertainties, and decision-makers' preferences; decision trees; multi-attribute tradeoff analysis; optimization techniques; valuation, value tradeoffs, and risk aversion; aggregative (cost-benefit) approach; disaggregative (multi-criteria) approach.

8.  Forecasting and building measures. Base line. Forecasting with: moving average; linear regression and correlation – assumption and estimation, standard error, significance, computer analysis, correlation model, relationship between correlation and regression; smoothing methods; Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method.

9.  Simulation and system dynamics.

Indicative Sources

Books:

1.  Bendavid-Val, Avrom (1991), Regional and Local Economic Analysis for Practitioners, 4th Edition, Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers.

2.  Klosterman, R. E. (1990). Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Savage, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.

3.  Kruekeberg, D. A., and Silvers, A.L, (1974) Urban Planning Analysis: Methods and Models. New York: Wiley.

4.  Loretta E. Bass and Rebecca Nees, Demography (4th Edition)

5.  Patton, Carl V. and David S. Sawicki 1993. Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning (second edition). Englewood, NJ; Prentice Hall.

6.  Stokey, E, and Zeckhauser, R., (1978) A Primer for Policy Analysis. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, Inc.

7.  Карлберг К., Бизнес анализ с Microsoft Excel, СофтПрес 2003

Articles

8.  Isserman A. M. (1984) Projection, Forecast and Plan: On the Future of Population Forecasting” Journal of American Planning Association 50:208-221

9.  Kaufman, S., and Simons, R.A., (1995) Quantitative Research Methods in Planning: Are Schools Teaching what Practitioners Practice? Journal of Planning Education and Research 15: 17 – 35

10.  Krikelas A. C. (1992) Why Regions Grow: A Review of Research on the Economic Base Model Economic Review. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, July/August 16-29

11.  Nelson A., W. Drummond, and D. Sawicki (1995) Exurban Industrialization: Implications for Economic Development Policy Economic Development Quarterly Vol. 9 (2): 119 – 133

12.  Patton C.V. (1986) Being Roughly right rather than precisely wrong Journal of Planning Education and Research, Vol. 6 (1): 22-29

13.  Rubin B. and M. Wilder (1989) Urban Enterprise Zones: Employment Impacts and Fiscal Incentives Journal of the American Planning Association 55 (4) Autumn


URLs (Web sites):

http://anthro.fortlewis.edu/anthro190/pop3.htm

http://www.asanet.org

http://www.econdata.net

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/rdp/rdp1098/rdp1098a.pdf

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/rdp/rdp298/rdp298e.pdf

http://www.hevanet.com/lad/uguide.pdf