October 8, 2011
Allocation & Charts
In the big picture Daily S&P we see a wave (ii) correction in process, normally this pullback takes retraces between 50-61.8% of the previous advance in an a-b-c, where b moves to the upside and can exceed wave (i) to the upside. Below you see that represents a range between 1108 and 1120 on the S&P.
In the hourly chart below a Diag > indicates a short-term reversal to likely 1175, for wave “b” of an a-b-c wave iv, of a Diag II and the same as wave (ii) in the daily chart.
Current positions in blue-green including open orders; changes in red
Timer Digest
SPXU Inverse S&P 500; UPRO long S&P 500
CASH sold full UPRO for a handsome 11% profit in less than a week
Buy full pos SPXU limit 17.80 GTC
SPXU should drop to the area of 17.80 then rise to a minimum of 22.6
TMF 20-Yr long Treas Bond; TMV 20-Yr inverse Treas Bond
Cash this was an error in the previous version
we sold the remaining scale at the opening at 16.42 off a limit of 16.30
our cost was average cost 14.71, leaving a profit of 15.3% for the week
Buy full pos TMF limit 65 GTC
CXL buy ½ pos TMV limit 14
Bonds
TMF 20-yr. long Bond; TMV 20-yr inverse bond
Pension
Cash this was an error in the previous version
we sold the remaining scale at the opening at 16.42 off a limit of 16.30
our cost was average cost 14.71, leaving a profit of 15.3% for the week
Buy 2/3 pos TMF limit 65 GTC
CXL buy ½ pos TMV limit 14
Traders
Cash this was an error in the previous version
we sold the remaining scale at the opening at 16.42 off a limit of 16.30
our cost was average cost 14.71, leaving a profit of 15.3% for the week
Buy full pos TMF limit 65 GTC
CXL buy ½ pos TMV limit 14
Equity Allocator
35% DRV Inverse Real Estate; DRN Real Estate “One Fund” Strategy
Pension
1/3 pos DRN average cost 38.22
Sell 1/3 DRN limit 41.5; CXL 42;
Buy 1/3 pos DRV limit 13.25
Traders
½ pos DRN average cost 38.22
Sell 1/2 DRN limit 41.5; CXL 42;
Buy ½ pos DRV limit 13.25
35% EDZ Inverse Emerging Markets, EDC Emerging Markets
Pension
1/3 pos EDC average cost 16.55
Sell 1/3 pos EDC limit 15.75
Buy 1/3 pos EDZ limit 27.4
Traders
1/2 pos EDC average cost 16.55
Sell 1/2 pos EDC limit 15.75
Buy 1/2 pos EDZ limit 27.4
30% FAZ Inverse Financials; FAS Financials
Pension
Cash Sold FAS for an 8% profit right at the high of the day
Buy 1/3 pos FAZ limit 57.5
Traders
Cash Sold FAS for an 8% profit right at the high of the day
Buy 1/2 pos FAZ limit 57.5
like stocks, commodities are tracing out a wave ii correction, again likely an a-b-c as above
Meanwhile the dollar is moving in the opposite direction as stocks in an upside, correction, where the one larger trend is down to the area of 73.
Likewise the VIX will move back up as stocks drop, as you would expect. The small Diag > at the end of the “a” wave confirms this dramatic reversal again the most likely upside is the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, the second most likely is a 50% retracement.
Above is the long-term bond chart the box including 72.5 and 75 give the range of the likely upside correction. As stocks correct to the downside, bonds correct to the upside.
Please accept my apologies for yesterday’s incomplete version, there was a problem with the chart updates. In order to avoid losing the entire work I sent out incomplete. When there is a reversal in process, as we have now there are twice as many charts to do.
Best regards,
Eduardo Mirahyes