O No You Humi-Didn’t

After at least a couple years of the Diamondbacks whispering to the baseball community that they were going to install a humidor in Chase Field, it finally appears that it will become a reality in 2018. Many articles, blogs, podcasts, social media discussions, yada yada yada, are covering the topic from top to bottom. The best, and possibly only, comparison to this change in ballpark would be the 2002 installation of the Colorado Rockies humidor.

The Rockies humidor installation has been pointed to when deciding that the Diamondbacks offensive production, specifically home runs, are going to be on the decline anywhere from 25%-50%. This has been based on the Rockies production from 2001 to 2002 including home runs falling off and exit velocity dropping by 2%.

There are a few items that I have not seen discussed in any kind of pronounced manner. First, we have to remember that the culture in MLB began to make a big change from 2001 to 2002. 2001 was the 73 home run year from Bonds. Everyone was amazed, but also, it was abundantly clear that steroids and PEDs had taken over the game. 2003 was the first year that there was any kind of increased steroid testing despite being banned from the game since 1991. This made 2002 a bit of a transition year where players might have begun cleaning up their act a bit.

Okay, so, the enhanced PED testing wasn’t in the game until 2003, so you don’t like that point. Let’s keep digging. Home runs dropped across the board in Major League Baseball from 5458 in 2001 to 5059 in 2002 (a difference of 399 home runs for those not wanting to do a little math). If we take only the top 10 home run hitters from 2001 and 2002, there is a drop from 526 home runs to 450 (76 less home runs).

If instead of taking the top 10 from 2001 and the top 10 from 2002, we look at the same players from 2001 top 10 list and compare those players to 2002, we find that the top 10 home run hitters from 2001 actually hit 138 less home runs in 2002. Of the top 10 home run hitters in 2001, only two were able to hit more home runs in 2002, and there was an average drop off of 12.11 home runs among those top 10 guys.

There was one more facet of the humidor/home run/ballpark study that I wanted to look at in more depth. How did home runs actually change in Coors? Well, as a team, the Rockies hit 213 home runs in 2001 and only 152 in 2002 (61 less home runs). Certainly seems damning, right? That’s a big drop off for a team at home.

We have to remember though, Todd Helton dropped from 49 home runs to 30 home runs, and coincidentally, never hit over 40 home runs again. Helton was not a decrepit old man, he played the 2002 season at age 28, which at the time, was considered the prime of his career.

There is also Larry Walker who went from 38 home runs in 2001 to 26 home runs in 2002. However, he had likely hit the age wall, as he never hit more than 20 home runs after 2002. So, between Helton and Walker, we can account for over half of the home run production drop off by the Rockies as a team.

If we look at all hitters in Coors, including the opposing teams with the Rockies, there was a total of 253 home runs hit in 2001, which dropped to 225 home runs (28 less home runs) in 2002. The Rockies as a team hit 61 less home runs in Coors, but for all MLB teams, there was only a 28 home run difference. So, the opposing teams, who should have been affected by the humidor changes as well, actually hit more home runs in 2002 than they did in 2001, pre-humidor.

This article is not meant to say that there are no changes to be expected from the installation of the humidor in Chase Field. I simply wanted to bring up these points as I have not seen them discussed when people bring up a potential 25%-50% drop off in home run production within Chase Field this year. Home runs across the league were down, away teams actually hit more home runs in Coors in 2002 than 2001, and the culture in baseball was starting to turn away from the steroid era.

As we have such a limited sample size of parks installing a humidor, we really have to examine every aspect to make our own conclusions. If you ask me, I’m still taking Goldy in the first round as my third player off the board, and I will be happy to take some bargains on draft day if Diamondbacks hitters are being devalued across the board.