Managerial Decision Making

Managerial Decision Making

Fall 1996

Wednesdays 9:30-12:30

Bowling Green State University

Instructor: Scott HighhousePhone: 372-8078

Office: 240 Psychology Bldg.Email:

Description

This course will focus on the application of behavioral decision theory and research to problems in industrial/organizational psychology. We will cover a broad range of topics under this general heading including perceptions of strategic-issues, organizational risk taking, executive cognition and expertise, influence and persuasion, among others. The class will be helpful to students formulating thesis and dissertation ideas, and will provide ideas for constructing management development programs on decision making and strategic management.

Student Evaluation

The following components will be considered in the determination of your grade in the course:

1.Class Participation (40%) - This component is based on a combination of class presence, preparation, and presentation.

Every student should come to each class prepared to discuss each assigned reading. Be prepared to provide:

 What you believe to be the most important ideas in the readings

 A critical evaluation of the ideas and/or evidence

 Ideas or questions that you have, based on your reflections about the article(s).

2.Writing Assignment (20%) - There will be a writing assigment in which students will be asked to apply decision topics to real-world problems. Details will be given in class. The assigment is due Wednesday, October 2. It will be accepted without penalty Friday, October 4. Absolutely no papers will be accepted after 5:00 p.m. October 4!

3.Research Proposal (40%) - You are responsible for one type-written research proposal. The proposal should be relevant to a topic discussed in this class and should follow APA format. The proposal will be due December 13 and will be accepted without penalty December 16 before 5:00 p.m. Absolutely no papers will be accepted after 5:00 p.m. December 16!

Course Schedule

DateTopicReading Assignment

August 28Introduction

September 4Behavioral Decision TheoryAbelson & Levi (1985)

Staw (1991)

September 11Decision CriteriaJungerman (1983)

Funder (1987)

Kahneman (1991)

Wilson & Schooler (1991)

September 18Strategic Decision MakingMintzberg et al (1976)

Schwenk (1995)

September 25Decisions Over TimeKahneman & Snell (1992)

Kahneman et al (1993)

Bukszar & Connolly (1988)

Ritov & Baron (1995)

October 2Context Effects on JudgmentMcGill (1989)

Writing Assignment Dueand ChoiceHerr (1986)

levin et al (1995)

Zalesny & Ford (1990)

October 9Organizational Issue InterpretationDutton (1993)

Thomas et al (1994)

Highhouse et al (1996)

October 16InfluenceDutton & Ashford (1993)

Smith & Petty (1996)

Falbe & Yukl (1992)

Sorrentino et al (1988)

October 23Strategic-Issue DiagnosisDutton et al (1990)

Zajac & Bazerman (1991)

Boyd & Fulk (1996)

October 30The Nature of ExpertiseGlaser (1988)

Shanteau (1992)

Einhorn (1974)

Abdolmohammadi et al (1992)

Rosman et al (1994)

November 6Management Risk TakingAtkinson (1957)

March & Shapira (1987)

Kahneman & Lovallo (1993)

Sullivan & Kida (1995)

Zeelenberg et al (1996)

November 13Risk PerceptionJohnson (1983)

Dunegan et al (1992)

Highhouse & Yuce (1996)

Messick & Bazerman (1996)

DateTopicReading Assignment

November 20Resource Allocation BehaviorGarland (1990)

Garland et al (1990)

Langholtz et al (1995)

Paese (1995)

Novemeber 27 No Class

December 4New DirectionsBeach & Mitchell (1990)

Brehmer (1996)

Orasanu & Connolly (1993)

December 11Presentations

December 13

Research Proposal Due

Managerial Decision Making

Behavioral Decision Theory

Abelson, R.P., & Levi, A. (1985). Decision making and decision theory. In G. Lindzey & E. Aronson (Eds.), The Handbook of Social Psychology, (3rd ed., Vol. 1), NY: Random House, pp. 231-309.

Staw, B.M. (1991). Dressing up like an organization: When psychological theories can explain organizational action. Journal of Management, 17, 805-819.

Decision Criteria

Jungerman, H. (1983). The two camps on rationality. In R.W. Scholz (Ed.), Decision making under uncertainty, (pp. 63-86). Amsterdam: Elsevier.

Funder, D.C. (1987). Errors and mistakes: Evaluating the accuracy of social judgment. Psychological Bulletin, 101, 75-90.

Kahneman, D. (1991). Judgment and decision making: A personal view. Psychological Science, 2, 141-145.

Wilson, T.D., & Schooler, J.W. (1991). Thinking too much: Introspection can reduce the quality of preferences and decisions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60, 181-192.

Strategic Decision Making

Mintzberg, H., Raisinghani, D., & Theoret, A. (1976). The structure of ÒunstructuredÓ decision processes. Administrative Science Quarterly, 21, 246-275.

Schwenk, C.R. (1995). Strategic decision making. Journal of Management, 21, 471-493.

Decisions Over Time

Kahneman, D., & Snell, J. (1992). Predicting a changing taste: Do people know what they will like? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 5, 187-200.

Kahneman, D., Fredrickson, B.L., Schreiber, C.A., & Redelmeier, D.A. (1993). When more pain is preferred to less: Adding a better end. Psychological Science, 4, 401-405.

Bukszar, E., & Connolly, T. (1988). Hindsight bias and strategic choice: Some problems in learning from experience. Academy of Management Journal, 31, 628-641.

Ritov, I., & Baron, J. (1995). Outcome knowledge, regret, and omission bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 64, 119-127.

Context Effects on Judgment and Choice

McGill, A.L. (1989). Context effects in judgments of causation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 189-200.

Herr, P.M. (1986). Consequences of priming: Judgment and behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 1106-1115.

Levin, I.P., Schneider, S.L., Gaeth, G.J., & Conlon, A.B. (1995). All frames are not created equal: A typology of valence framing effects. Unpublished Manuscript. Department of Psychology, The University of Iowa.

Zalesny, M.D., & Ford, K. (1990). Extending the social information processing perspective: New links to attitudes, behaviors, and perceptions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 47, 205-246.

Organizational Issue Interpretation

Dutton, J.E. (1993). The making of organizational opportunities: An interpretive pathway to organizational change. Research in Organizational Behavior, 15, 195-226.

Thomas, J.B., Shankster, L.J., & Mathiew, J.E. (1994). Antecedents to organizational issue interpretation: The roles of single-level, and content cues. Academy of Management Journal, 37, 1252-1284.

Highhouse, S., Paese, P.W., & Leatherberry, T. (1996). Contrast effects on strategic issue framing. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 95-105.

Influence

Dutton, J.E., & Ashford, S.J. (1993). Selling issues to top management. Academy of Management Review, 18, 397-428.

Smith, S.M., & Petty, R.E. (1996). Message framing and persuasion: A message processing analysis. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 22, 257-268.

Falbe, C.M., & Yukl, G. (1992). Consequences for managers of using single influence tactics and combinations of tactics. Academy of Management Journal, 35, 638-652.

Sorrentino, R.M., Bobocel, D.R., Gitta, M.Z., & Olson, J.M., & Hewitt, E.C. (1988). Uncertainty orientation and persuasion: Individual differences in the effects of personalrelevance on social judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 55, 357-371.

Strategic-Issue Diagnosis

Dutton, J.E., Stumpf, S.A., & Wagner, D. (1990). Diagnosing strategic issues and managerial investment of resources. Advances in Strategic Management, 6, 143-167.

Zajac, E.J., & Bazerman, M.H. (1991). Blind spots in industry and competitor analysis: Implications for interfirm (mis)perceptions for strategic decisions. Academy of Management Review, 16, 37-56.

Boyd, B.K., & Fulk, J. (1996). Executive scanning and perceived uncertainty: A multidimensional model. Journal of Management, 22, 1-21.

The Nature of Expertise

Glaser, R. (1988). Thoughts on expertise. In C. Schooler & W. Schaie (Eds.), Cognitive functioning and social structure over the life course, (pp. 81-94). Norwood, NJ: Ablex.

Shanteau, J. (1992). The psychology of experts: An alternative view. In G. Wright & F. Bolger (Eds.), Expertise and decision support, (pp. 11-23). New York: Plentum Press.

Einhorn, H.J. (1974). Expert judgment: Some necessary conditions and an example. Journal of Applied Psychology, 59, 562-571.

Abdolmohammadi, M.J., & Shanteau, J. (1992). Personal attributes of expert auditors. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53, 158-172.

Rosman, A., Lubatkin, M., & OÕNeill, N. (1994). Rigidity in decision behaviors: A within-subject test of information acquisition using strategic and financial information cues. Academy of Management Journal, 37, 1017-1033.

Management Risk Taking

Atkinson, J.W. (1957). Motivational determinants of risk taking behavior. Psychological Review, 64, 359-372.

March, J.G., & Shapira, Z. (1987). Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking. Management Science, 33, 1404-1418.

Kahneman, D., & Lovallo, D. (1993). Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk and risk taking. Management Science, 39, 17-31.

Sullivan, K., & Kida, T. (1995). The effect of multiple reference points and prior gains and losses on managersÕ risky decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 64, 76-83.

Zeelenberg, M., Beattie, J., van der Pligt, J., & de Vries, N.K. (1996). Consequences of regret aversion: Effects of expected feedback on risky decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 148-158.

Risk Perception

Johnson, E.J. (1983). Affect, generalization, and the perception of risk. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 20-31.

Dunegan, K.J., Duchon, D., & Barton, S.L. (1992). Affect, risk, and decision criticality: Replication and extension in a business setting. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53, 335-351.

Highhouse, S., & YŸce, P. (1996). Perspectives, perceptions, and risk-taking behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 159-167.

Messick, D.M., & Bazerman, M.H. (1996). Ethical leadership and the psychology of decision making. Sloan Management Review, 9-22.

Resource Allocation Behavior

Garland, H. (1990). Throwing good money after bad: The effect of sunk costs on the decision to escalate commitment to an ongoing project. Journal of Applied Psychology, 75, 728-731.

Garland, H., Sandefur, C.A., & Rogers, A.C. (1990). De-escalation of commitment in oil exploration: When sunk costs and negative feedback coincide. Journal of Applied Psychology, 75, 721-727.

Langholtz, H., Gettys, C., & Fote, B. (1995). Are resource fluctuations anticipated in resource allocation tasks? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 64, 274-282.

Paese, P.W. (1995). Effects of framing on actual time allocation decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 61, 67-76.

New Directions

Beach, L.R., & Mitchell, T.R. (1990). Image theory: A behavioral theory of decision making in organizations. Research in Organizational Behavior, 12, 1-41.

Brehmer, B. (1996). Man as a stabiliser of systems: From static snapshots of judgement processes to dynamic decision making. Thinking and Reasoning, 2, 225-238.

Orasanu, J., & Connolly, T. (1993). The reinvention of decision making. In G.A. Klein, J. Orasanu, R. Calderwood, & C.E. Zsambok (Eds.), Decision making in action: Models and methods, (pp. 3-20). Norwood, NJ: Ablex Publishing.

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