Tool: Bias Minimization Checklist

LSM582: Strategic Decision Making

Cornell University

Tool: Bias Minimization Checklist

Account for Biases

Instructions:

Use this checklist to identify possible sources of bias in yourself and others. For each type of bias, consider each of the questions listed. In the right column make notes on who might be susceptible to bias and how it might impact their contribution to decision-making process.

Hot Biases
Bias / Questions to ask: / Notes on potential bias:
Motivated reasoning
A self-serving interpretation of available information, including the omission, de-emphasis or discounting of some data in favor of other data that reflects more favorably on one’s self or a strongly held position / How is my self-image connected to the decision or potential outcomes of the decision?
Who else is involved in making the decision?
Beyond the decision makers, who might be impacted by the decision?
How are stakeholders hoping the decision will reflect on them? (Consider perceptions of competence, ethical and moral stance, and good will)
Cold Biases
Bias / Questions to ask: / Notes on potential bias:
Availability bias
Overestimating the likelihood of events and importance of facts that are easier to retrieve from memory / Are there objective data available to assess the likelihood of an outcome?
Is my estimate of likelihood based on a consistent body of evidence, or on a small number of memorable incidents?
What factors (source, phrasing, visual presentation) might be influencing my perception of a fact’s importance?
Halo effect
Overgeneralization about a person’s qualifications such that an impression about one qualification affects impressions about other qualifications across traits of a person or across time / Is the expert an expert in the topic of interest to me?
How much experience does the source have, and how relevant is that experience to the situation at hand?
How extensive and how recent is the source’s track record?
Is there a way to temporarily disassociate the data I’m receiving from the source or sources?
Future framing bias
A focus on high-level outcomes of a future circumstance that seem initially to represent success but that turn out to be less important than other consequences related to seemingly minor details / What are the aspects of the decision I’m most invested in now?
What other factors might be important in the future?
What do those on the other side of similar decisions say they would do differently?
Combination Biases
Bias / Questions to ask: / Notes on potential bias:
Planning Fallacy
Excessive and unjustified optimism when predicting the ability to complete a future task within a prescribed or expected time frame / How long and/or how much effort would an outsider expect to spend on the project?
Escalation Bias/Sunk Cost Fallacy
Persistent rationalization of a decision in the face of an increasing body of evidence that the decision may not have been for the best / Whose reputations are tied up in the success or failure of the decision/project?
What steps can I take to neutralize failure?
What are the sunk costs, and is there a way to account for them outside the decision/project?