Assistant Vice President for Public Safety

MEMORANDUM

Gregory S. Hestness

Assistant Vice President for Public Safety

Chief of Police

University of Minnesota

TO:VP Pam Wheelock

RE:Comparisons of Fall Robbery Trends 2011-2013

DATE:December 8, 2013

Pam,

From all the data elements we could have chosen to spend time with, the below will help us evaluate assumptions or intuitions about what if any changes are taking place.

Year / Day of Week / Hour of Day / Weapons/
Force / # of Attackers / Victims / Loss
Vehicles
2011
N = 25 / S = 7
M = 4
T = 0
W = 4
Th = 0
Fri = 5
Sat = 5 / 18-20 = 1
20-22 = 1
22-00 = 5
00-02 =10
02-04 = 3
04-06 = 2
10-12 = 1 / Gun 9
Knife/other 1
Physical 11
Verbal Only 4 / 1 = 10
2 = 6
3+ = 9 / M = 25
F = 6
1 = 20
2 = 4
3+ = 1
UM = 12 / Phone = 16
No vehicles reported in crimes
2012
N=19 / S = 5
M = 2
T = 1
W = 1
Thu = 4
Fri = 0
Sat = 6 / 18-20 = 2
20-22 = 4
22-00 = 1
22-02 = 8
02-04 = 1
04-06 = 1 / Gun 3
Knife/other 1
Physical 14
Verbal 1
(gun implied) / 1 = 6
2 = 8
3+ = 5 / M = 19
F = 6
1= 18
2= 1
UM = 11 / 4 suspect vehicles reported
2013
N=24 / S = 7
M = 2
T = 1
W = 4
Thu = 3
Fri = 1
Sat = 6 / 18-20 = 2
20-22 = 1
22-00 =6
00-02 = 4
02-04 = 5
04-06 = 1
06-08 = 1
08-10 = 1
14-16 = 3 / Gun 12
Knife/other 0
Physical 8
Verbal 4
(1 gun implied) / 1= 7
2= 8
3+ = 9 / M = 24
F = 17
1 = 13
2 = 8
3+ = 3
UM = 20 / 6 Suspect vehicles reported

• Number of Cases Per Year. We have been speaking of 26 cases this fall. We analyzed 24. Two Transit cases were not available to us. In either case the increase is not significant.

• Day of the Week. The weekends, Friday through Sunday, remain the highest risk, though it has changed. The weekend represents 43% of the week, but in the last three years the % of robberies occurring on weekends is as follows:

• 2011=68%
• 2012=58%
• 2013=58%

As a result, we are still smartest to increase resources on the weekends, both police and prevention, i.e. Gopher Chauffer and 624-WALK.

After considering the weekend, there does not appear to be a weekday that is a good predictor of risk. Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday all had 4 cases in one of the three years. Wednesday had 4 cases twice, in 2011 and 2013.

• Hour of the Day. We have staffed robbery suppression and prevention for the late evening early morning hours, roughly 10:00 PM to 4:00 AM. The data supports that assumption but not as strongly as in the past. Over the three years the % of robberies taking place from 10-4 are as follows:

• 2011=72% 76% (8P to 4A)
• 2012=47%74% (8P to 4A)
• 2013=63%67% (8P to 4A)

Extending the focus back to 8:00 PM, doesn’t’ really change much except for 2012 when the robberies were weighted earlier in the evening. Over the last three years we can say that 63% of the robberies take place during 25% of the day, from 10 PM to 4 AM.

• Weapons and Use of Force. We have developed the impression that guns and use of physical force have been more prevalent this fall. It appears to be true for the increase in guns, but not true for the use of physical force/assaults.

Gun / Knife/other weapon / Physical Force/Assault / Verbal threat only
2011 N=25 / 9
(36%) / 1
(4%) / 11
(44%) / 4
(16%)
2012 N=19 / 3
(16%) / 1
(5%) / 14
(74%) / 1
(5%)
Gun implied
2013 N=24 / 12
(50%) / 0 / 8
(33%) / 1
(4%)
Gun implied

Guns were used 50% of the time. One was fired once into the air for effect.

Physical force was actually used quite a bit less than 2012, way more guns.

• Number of attackers. We also wondered if we were seeing more multiple groups/packs of attackers. There is really not too much change in the configuration of the perpetrators. Though the group robberies that seem to come with more assaultive behavior was slightly the most frequent in 2013.

1 Robber / 2 Robbers / 3 or More
2011 N=25 / 10
(40%) / 6
(24%) / 9
(36%)
2012 N=19 / 6
(32%) / 8
(42%) / 5
(26%)
2013 N=24 / 7
(29%) / 8
(33%) / 9
(38%)

• Victim statistics. Despite our ongoing advice not to go out alone in the late and early hours, it did seem students continued to get robbed in groups. It appears suspects are willing to take on somewhat larger groups too. While we are comparing one less case than in 2011, there is a total of 10 more individual victims. There also seemed to be more female victims and more U of M student victims.

1 Victim / 2 Victims / 3 or More Victims
2011 N=25 / 20
(80%) / 4
(16%) / 1
(4%)
2012 N=19 / 18
(95%) / 1
(5%) / 0
2013 N=24 / 13
(54%) / 8
(33%) / 3
(13%)
Male/Female / UM Student
2011 N=25
31 total victims / 25/6
(81% vs.19%) / 12
(39%)
2012 N=19
25 total victims / 19/6
(76% VS 24%) / 11
(58%)
2013 N=24
41 total victims / 24/17
(59% vs. 41%) / 20
(49%)

• Here is what I would say are the key takeaways:

• As we have stated, the number or robbery cases was on the higher end of the normal range for the past ten years with 2005 being an outlier.

• When patterns emerge we are still best advised to deploy resources between Friday and Sunday nights, from 10 PM to 4 AM. The location might vary, but the greatest concentration has been Marcy-Holmes, Dinkytown, and SE University Avenue, all in the city primary jurisdiction.

• The actual use of physical force declined in 2013, but the display of guns rose to 50%. From the arrests we have made and weapons recovered we know not all guns displayed are real. But we have recovered real firearms and on one occasion a .45 was discharged for effect during a robbery.

• The lone robbery scenario is now the minority case compared to twosomes or larger groups.

• While the lone victim is still the majority 54%, it is down from the 80% it was in 2011. So, while there remain exceptions, not travelling alone especially at night remains valid advice.

• Women have grown more at risk for robbery. Each of the last three years the percentage of women as victims has increased. In 2013 they were 41% of total robbery of person victims. I do not know if that is because robbers feel less hesitancy to rob women or there are more out and about in the times and places robbery is most likely.

• We knew UM students were the victims in many of these fall SE robberies. It appears to ebb and flow, but the 3 year average shows they are about 50% of victims. I would have thought higher.

Officer McDonough was not able to do the 2011 analysis, so I did. I wanted to collect other data points. I was interested in the whole smart phone influence. I am not so sure there is much to be learned, I believe the expectation is almost every student and most members of the public have one. Jess was collecting suspect vehicle information. That is useful for the troops, but not so much for this review, other than to say I did see more reports of suspect vehicles in 2013 and therefore, perhaps the number of suspects coming from further away is on the increase.

I would just add caveats that this seems to be a gradually evolving concern and that three years may not be a long enough period to study. It is useful in terms of immediate trends. We also know that the new elements of light rail, the expansion of new private student housing, changes in the existing rental stock, and business development will introduce new dynamics that will influence the public safety picture in the city neighborhoods that surround campus and the University campus itself.