Annex A: Impact on data content for GDP components and associated releases between current Second Estimate of GDP and proposed new First Quarterly Estimate of GDP
Expenditure Approach
Component / Data content impactTrade / - Small reduction (less than 5 percentage points) in the already near universal coverage of Trade in Goods data from HMRC for the third month of the quarter, this would also be reflected in first monthly estimate of Trade in the UK Trade Bulletin and the HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics Bulletin when published on the same day as the First Estimate of Quarterly GDP
- Move from directly using early returns from the International Trade in Services Survey to a forecast approach informed by the early returns
- Replacement of one month’s International Passenger Survey data with forecasts
Gross Fixed Capital / - Limited impact - small reduction in data content linked to lower survey response rates for Gross Fixed Capital Formation (around 5 percentage points drop in data content) and Inventories (around 10 percentage points drop in data content)
Household Final Consumption Expenditure / - Limited Impact – forecast will replace some minor sources
General Government Final Consumption Expenditure / - Limited Impact - earlier vintage of government data with a different outturn/budget mix with no impact on data coverage
NPISH Final Consumption Expenditure / - Limited impact - this component is predominantly forecast
Income Approach
Compensation of Employees / - Replacement of one month’s Labour Market data with forecasts
Mixed Income / - Replacement of one month’s Labour Market data with forecasts
Operating Surplus / - Reduction in survey response for the operating surplus of private non-financial corporations
- Limited impact for other sectors where data are predominantly forecast
Taxes and Subsidies / - Limited Impact - earlier vintage of government data with a different outturn/forecast mix with no impact on data coverage
Output Approach
Agriculture / - Limited impact
Construction / - Some drop in survey response by turnover (around 15 percentage points) for the third month of the quarter, this would also be reflected in the first monthly estimate of Construction in the Construction Output Bulletin when published on the same day as the First Estimate of Quarterly GDP
Production / - Limited Impact - small reduction in survey response rates (around 5 percentage points) for the third month of the quarter, this would also be reflected in first estimates of Production in the Index of Production Bulletin when published on the same day as Quarterly GDP
Services / - Limited Impact - Small reduction in survey response rates (around 5 percentage points) for the third month of the quarter, this would also be reflected in first estimates of Services in the Index of Services Bulletin when published on the same day as the First Estimate of Quarterly GDP