Durham Crime

– A Surprising Decrease during Economic Turmoil

Introduction

Durham is a part of the prestigious research triangle in North Carolina. It is a home for Duke University, Duke Hospital, the Durham Bulls baseball team, and it also previously hosted American Tobacco. Furthermore, it holds the prestigious title of the city of medicine. On the contrary, Durhamhas had one of the highest rates of crime per person in the United States for any sized city (neighborhood scout), making it a difficult area to attract people and businesses to move to. There have been major improvements in the area within the previous decade and the city does show signs of continuing improvement. Even through the economic turmoil and mortgage-lending crises, the city of Durham has been able to further improve its living conditions and aesthetic appeals. Its city government has worked on improving its self-image as well as revitalizing the local economy by trying to bring in new businesses, and as a result it has been attracting new citizens to live and work in the region. This decade has witnessed an odd phenomenon in that crime has actually decreased, contrasting all other time periods in history that have experienced economic depression. In this paper I analyze crime rates in relation to population growth, number of police officers, andinner cityimprovement during the time period between 2000 and 2009. My objective is to not only analyze these statistics, but to remark on the amazing improvement that Durham has undergone and to try and ascertain why there has been such a significant improvement in Durham, North Carolina.

Background Information

The main basis for this research paper is a statistical analysis of data. Information has been provided from an array of different, but reliable sources in able to aptly study the phenomenon occurring in Durham, North Carolina.

Crime data for the previous decade was gathered from the North Carolina Department of Justice. The North Carolina Department of Justice is able to report close to exact numbers for all violent and property crimes during the time period from 2000 to 2009. Also, according to neighborhoodscout.com, “With a crime rate of 78 per one thousand residents, Durham has one of the highest crime rates in America compared to all communities of all sizes” as of 2000. The website had yet to post a more recent description of the city which is likely to have changed with the recent fall in crime.

Population growth is a number that can be compared through data sheets from the U.S. Census Bureau from the years 2000 and 2009. The Census Bureau contains accurate information on the change of population in the previous decade as well as look at the number of houses owned and under mortgage for the city and county. Also, to take into effect the impact of unemployment on crime, the Wall Street Journal, a very prestigious journal, provides information and articles that explain the subject matter.

The ratio of police officers to total population can be viewed, along with other information regarding the police force at the Department of Justice website. In order to view unemployment, information can be given by the government through the Bureau of Labor.

In order to examine the city government’s role in Durham, I look at the Downtown Master Plan that was initiated in 2000 to improve the quality of the downtown area and examine their progress. This is important as the downtown area has the highest rate of crimes. As long as improvement occurs in the downtown area and the crime does not move to another part of the city, it will point to the definite improvement of the city.

Data Sets

Data and statistical analysis are the key factors in this study and will be the major points of discussion and are the best judgments of discovering changes or influences. Crime, being the basis of this study, will be analyzed such that the other points of discussion can follow through and perhaps show their influence on crime.

Crime is separated into two sections: violent crimes and property crimes. Violent crimes include murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault while property crimes are classified as burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. Violent crime decreased from years 2000 to 2005, increased in 2006, and then steadily declined through 2009. The number of violent crimesstartedat 1954, 1628, 2049, to 1668 respective to the years stated. However, violent crime makes up a small portion of the total number of crimes in Durham. The largest amounts of crimes occur from property crimes. Property crimes steadily dropped from 16,517 to 13,686 from the years 2000 to 2009, with only a slight increase from 2006 to 2007. These numbers are particularly interesting as crime decreased during years of economic depression, increasing home foreclosures, and higher rates of unemployment.

The next sets of data include will further show the degree by which Durham has shown itself to be different from different time periods when economic decline meant increases in crime. Analyzing the information from the Census Bureau is a significant part of this examination. The population increased from 223,314 to 269,706 people. This is an increase of 46,392 people over the 2000 to 2009 time period, a percentage change of 20.8 which was greater than North Carolina’s average of 16.6%.

When viewing population growth, it is important to also note the number of police because if there are more people and the same number of police, the police have a harder job to face. The Department of Justice has recorded that the total number of employees, which includes fulltime sworn officers as well as fulltime civilians, increases over the decade from 555 employees to 608. This means that in 2000 there were 478 citizens for every sworn police officer, non-civilian, and in 2009 there were 586 citizens per sworn police officer.

It is also important to note the percentage of the population that has been unemployed over this period of time. According to sources such as the Wall Street Journal, there is a small correlation between unemployment and crime before 2000. Their study takes place from 1960 to 2000 for an examination of normal behavior between economic strife and crime. Unemployment from 2000 to 2009 changed drastically from almost no unemployment to almost a tenth of the population existing without a job. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment increased from three percent to five percent from 2000 to 2003, decreased to three and a half percent in 2007, and increased to eight and a half percent by the end of 2009.

Finally, Durham downtown has been improving itself. The status report in 2007, Downtown Durham Master Plan, in the middle of the financial crises, had created 5000 new jobs, created $1 billion dollars in investments, grew tax revenues by 16%, improved downtown entertainment, increased road circulation, and created new county government facilities. Future plans encourage downtown development in making it a more friendly and safe environment for its citizens. This is especially helpful to Durham in that the downtown area in 2000, as according to Neighborhoodscout.com, had the highest crime rate in the county on top of being one of the counties with the highest crime rates in the nation.

Data Analysis

Through examination of the data, it may be possible to detect a correlation, if not a reason for the overall decline of crime in Durham in the past decade. From 2000 to 2009, violent crimes decreased by 326 and property crimes by 2831 with a total decrease in crimes by 3157. The population of Durham has increased by 46,392 people, which shows signs of people moving into the city. The police force has decreased by seven full time officers over this period in time. The ratio of people to police officers increased by 108, number of people per police officer, whichis important to note because crime decreased in tandem of an increasing population and decreasing police force. The percentage of people unemployed has increased from three percent to eight and a half percent between 2000 and 2009. With an increase in population, the total number of people that were unemployed in 2000 versus the number in 2009 is 6,699 to 22,925 people. Note that the vast majority of increase in unemployment occurred between the beginning of 2008 and end of 2009. The city’s self-improvement plan must have something to do with the decrease in crime. By 2007, the city had a 16% increase in tax revenues which can be correlated by the 5000 new jobs and increase in population.

Conclusion

Results for the 2000 to 2009 time period in Durham show the following. Total crime has decreased by 3,157 crimes per year. The total population has increased by 46,392 people. Although 5000 jobs were created in the downtown area by 2007, unemployment increased from three and a half percent to eight and a half percent since then with a total net change over the ten year period to be an increase by five and a half percent. The number of unemployed persons has increased by 16,225 people. It appears that the most likely candidates for indicating crimes rates have had zero effect on crime in Durham. Though the information may be lacking in finding the cause, it is important to know that these major factors are what they are.

Study Improvement

A multivariable regression could be done for this study and may indicate what actually made a difference on crime rates. I need to look at changes in city council men, religious preferences, and ethnic changes. How has Duke University been involved with the community, more importantly, with children? The change in ethnicities as well as who exactly has moved into the county as well as who has moved away. What businesses have moved into the area and what sort of jobs are being offered. Has the national government affected the area or has only the local government made efforts to improve the area? What has the high school graduation/dropout rate for the past ten years? Has anything happened nationally that would have had such an odd effect in a single area? All of these can be answered with the right sets of data and information.

Sources

  • Downtown Master Plan: Seven Year Review and Updated Work Plan – courses website, course documents
  • US Census: ;
  • US Bureau of Labor Statistics:
  • “The Snap Judgement on Crime and Punishment”, April 15, 2009, Charles Forelle, Wall Street Journal,