The Population As a Whole

The Population Of Bath and North East Somersetin2009

Release

/ Version 1.5

Purpose

/ For Release

Status

/ Final

Access

/ Public

Issue Date

/ 13/11/10

Project brief

/ To provide an overview of historic and projected population trends in the Bath and North East Somerset area to support needs assessment and infrastructure delivery processes.
Author: / Jon Poole
Research & Intelligence Manager

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The Population of Bath and North East Somerset in 2009

Executive Summary

Mid-year estimates suggest that there were 177,700 residents in Bath and North East Somerset in 2009.
(This number is reduced from estimates produced for 2008 181,300 due to an improvement in counting methods by the ONS)
The local age structure is broadly similar to the population as a whole except for the 20-24 age range, which is over-represented.
Bath and North East Somerset remains less ethnically diverse than the UK as a whole, 89.2% (159,000 in 2007) of local residents define their ethnicity as White British. This is followed by 3.9% defining as White Other and 1.2% defining as Chinese.

Historic Change

The local population has grown by 7.7% between 1981 and 2009 (from 161,000 to the current figure). This is greater than the UK as a whole, but lower than the South West Region.
This increase has been largely experienced due to ‘migration and other’ factors. In particular, the number of students in the two Universities doubled between 1995 and 2009.

Population Projections

The ONS project that the Bath and North East Somerset population will increase by 12% to 198,800 by 2026.
It is likely that this figure will change slightly following the publication of the Core Strategy which will allow more accurate estimation of the impact on housing growth on population change.
This increase is expected to mainly be experienced in older people, in particular the 80+ population is projected to increase by 40% from 9,900 in 2010 to 13,900 in 2026.
The exact makeup of these population changes is likely to be influenced strongly by the type of housing that is developed over this period
An above average increase is also expected in the 4-11 age range, which is projected to increase from 14,500 to 16,900

Population Density and Distribution

Bath and North East Somerset has a greater population density than both England and the South West region.
Locally there is an enormous variation in population density. Farmborough Ward has a population of 70 people per square kilometre, compared to 6900 in Walcot Ward.

1. Introduction

This report provides a summary overview of historic, current and projected makeup of the Bath and North East Somerset population. The analysis is principally based on Office of National Statistics (ONS)data and as such all data is to be considered subject to their onward licensing agreements.

For further information, background data or methodological information please contact .

Please Note: All information provided for population projection purposes is done so for the purpose of estimating demographic change only and does not represent formal planning policy.

2. The Population as a whole

According to ONS estimates, in 2009 there were an estimated 177,700 residents in Bath and North East Somerset of which 87,800 (49.4%) are male and 89,900 (50.6%) are female.This represents a downwards revision from 2008 estimates (181,300) due to improvements in the methods used by the ONS to calculate the movement of international migrants.

Fig.1 - Population proportions by 5-year (quinery) Age Groups – ONS Mid-Year 2009, UK and Bath and North East Somerset.

Bath and North East Somerset has a similar structure to the UK, however the proportion represented by the 20-24 age range is 3% higher than the population as a whole. This increase is explained by the presence of two higher education establishments in the area.

Table 1 – Ethnic Background – Bath and North East Somerset (2007 estimates)
Ethnic Group / % / No.
White: British / 89.2% / 159,100
White: Irish / 0.7% / 1,300
White: Other White / 3.9% / 7,000
Mixed: White and Black Caribbean / 0.5% / 900
Mixed: White and Black African / 0.2% / 300
Mixed: White and Asian / 0.4% / 700
Mixed: Other Mixed / 0.4% / 700
Asian or Asian British: Indian / 0.8% / 1,500
Asian or Asian British: Pakistani / 0.3% / 500
Asian or Asian British: Bangladeshi / 0.2% / 300
Asian or Asian British: Other Asian / 0.3% / 500
Black or Black British: Black Caribbean / 0.4% / 800
Black or Black British: Black African / 0.6% / 1,000
Black or Black British: Other Black / 0.1% / 100
Chinese or Other Ethnic Group: Chinese / 1.2% / 2,100
Chinese or Other Ethnic Group: Other / 0.7% / 1,200
Source: ONS Experimental Population Estimates by Ethnic Group (2007) © CrownCopyright 2009

Table 1 demonstrates the estimated breakdown of the population by ethnic grouping. The most significant non White British population the White: Other White Group, who represent an estimated 3.9% of the population, followed by the Chinese Group, who represent an estimated 1.2% of the population.

Bath and North East Somerset remains less ethnically diverse than the population of England, where 84% are classified within the White: British Group.

In addition these estimates of ethnic background have demonstrated an increase in ethnic diversity compared to the 2001 census, where 94% of the population were recorded as white British[1] to 89.2% in 2007. The most significant increase has been experienced in the White: Other White ethnic group which has increased from 4,265 (2001) to an estimated 7000 in 2007. This increase can be largely attributed to members of EU Accession States.

3. Historic Trends

Between 1981 and 2009 the Bath and North East Somerset population grew by 12,700 from 161,000 to the current figure (A growth of 7.7%). This growth is greater than the UK as a whole but lower than Regional growth. Table 2 and Fig 2 (overleaf). show that this growth has been focussed on the last ten years.

Table 2 - % Population change 10-year ranges, 1989-2009.
Bath and North East Somerset / South West / Great Britain
1989-1999 / 1.3% / 4.9% / 2.7%
1999-2009 / 6.3% / 7.2% / 5.3%
Source: ONS Mid-year estimates © Crown Copyright 2010

Fig 2 – Bath and North East Somerset Population Change over time – 1981-2009

General Population change can be further understood in terms of specific components of change, fig 3 demonstrates how births and deaths have compared with migration and other change in influencing this change.

Fig 3 – Bath and North East Somerset Components of Population Change over time – 1991-2009

In addition to these broad changes there are a number of other factors which can be shown to have an impact on these population increases, in particular European migrant workers and full time Students studying in Higher Education institutions.

3.1 Components of Population Change: Migrant Workers

Following EU enlargement in 2004, the ONS have provided estimates as to inward and outward migration of international residents. Fig. 4 demonstrates these trends between enlargement and 2009.

2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009
Net inward migration / -100 / 500 / 200 / 1900 / 1300 / 200
Source: ONS: Components of change – international migration© Crown Copyright 2010

Fig 4 – International Migration inflow and outflow 2004 – 2009 [2]

Recent trends of inward migration peaked in 2007 with a net increase of 1900 individuals. This number has reduced significantly reducing to 200 in 2009. It is likely that this reduction can be attributed in part to the economic downturn.

3.2 Components of Population Change:Students in Higher Education

A further component of population growth is the increase in the student body of the two universities in the area. Fig.5 demonstrates the total growth in the number of students at the University of Bath and Bath Spa University[3].

Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency, 2010

Fig 5 – Total Student Body – Change over Time, University of Bath and Bath Spa University by academic year

Between 1995/96 and 2008/9 the number of students in these higher education institutions rose from 10740 to 21540 (101%). Students subscribed at these institutions are not necessarily resident in the Bath and North East Somerset area, however it is clear that at least some of the population increases experienced over the reported time period are accounted for by this increase in students attending these institutions.

4. Population Projections

Projecting the future population of any area is an inexact process. The ONS produce annual projection information based on historic change which forms the majority of this analysis.

Fig. 6 demonstrates a comparison between ONS projections and those where limited growth is experienced

Fig 6 – Comparative population projections – Bath and North East Somerset 2009 – 2026. No growth and 11,000 projections based on extrapolated GLA projections, ONS projections based on 2009 mid-year estimates © Crown Copyright.

Based on linear growth projections, the general population is expected to increase to 198,800 (+12%) by 2026.

A note on household composition and population change: Availability of different housing will have an impact on the changing population, however it should be noted that it is not possible to know the makeup of developments in a particular area until initial plans are submitted. For example, it is not possible to know for certain the proportion of the area which may contain family dwellings or residential care homes at this stage.

In addition, local planning policy decisions will have a significant impact no the potential supply of dwellings and thus place an external control on population levels

The ONS projections provide estimates for a number of variables, table 3 provides a breakdown of certain key demographics.

Table 3 - Demographic Change by key groups – Bath and North East Somerset 2010 – 2026 – 000 population

2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2026 / % Change 2010 - 2026
Births / 1.8 / 1.8 / 2 / 2 / 11%
Age 4-11 / 14.5 / 15.4 / 16.1 / 16.9 / 17%
Age 11-16 / 12 / 11.4 / 12.1 / 12.7 / 6%
Under 18 / 34.2 / 34.5 / 36 / 37.9 / 11%
Working age adults* / 113.8 / 116.7 / 118.1 / 120.5 / 6%
Older People** / 37 / 39.5 / 41.9 / 46.1 / 25%
80+ / 9.9 / 10.6 / 11.8 / 13.9 / 40%
Deaths / 1.6 / 1.5 / 1.5 / 1.5 / -6%
* M 16-65/ F 16-60
** M 65+/F 60+
Source: ONS Population Projections 2009 © Crown Copyright 2010

While the most significant increases expected are in older people, in particular the 80+ population (from 9,900 to 13,900. A 40% increase), it is also notable that the 4-11 age range is projected to increase by 17% from 14,500 to 16,900.

An on-line tool providing more in-depth analysis of this data can be found at:

6. Population Density and Distribution.

Table 4 demonstrates that In 2009 the Bath and North East Somerset population density the population was greater than that for both England and the South West Region as a whole.

Table 4. – Comparative Population Density 2009

Area (sq km) / People per sq. km
Bath and North East Somerset / 346 / 514
South West / 23,837 / 219
England / 130,279 / 398

The authority-wide picture does not give an accurate description of population distribution within the authority however. The ONS currently provides data at a smaller geographical level for the 2008 mid-year estimates allowing for more detailed analysis of the makeup of the local population.

There is a strong degree of heterogeneity in terms of population distribution within the Bath and North East Somerset area. Fig. 7 (overleaf) demonstrates these differences by local government ward. Walcot ward has a population density of 6900 people per square km compared to Farmborough ward with a population density of 70 people per square km.

In addition the ONS are now providing smaller geographical population estimates. Fig 8 (overleaf) demonstrates the population density of the area broken down by Lower Level Super Output Area (LSOA), geographies of approximately 1500 residents and provides a more geographically defined area. This analysis demonstrates an even greater variation, Bathavon North LSOA (reference 6 on fig 8) has a population density of 41 residents per square km compared to over 16,000 Oldfield LSOA (reference 68 on fig. 8).

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Fig.7 – Ward level population density – 2008 mid-year estimates

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Fig. 8 - LSOA level population density – 2008 mid-year estimates

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[2]Please note: data are not national statistics and should be used for indicative purposes only.

[3] Previously Bath Spa University College and Bath College of Higher Education.

[4] ONS Local Profiles are available by download from ONS direct at