Contemporary Challenges to U.S. Foreign Policy

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SCUSA 63

Thinking Beyond Boundaries:

Contemporary Challenges to U.S. Foreign Policy

Africa:

Aid, Development, and Human Security

Recent history has seen the United States redefine its relationship with Africa from one defined by efforts to maintain political equilibrium in an international context, to one shaped by growing human security interests. America’s historic belief in democracy promotion and the development of reliable global partners and stable political systems has not been realized in Africa, as stable, liberal regimes have taken a secondary role to economic interests. While Africa possesses a great measure of economic potential in terms of markets and resources, there are also opportunities to improve human security and political stability across the continent. As the world grows ever more connected, the United States must seek to develop policies and strategies that advance American interests while simultaneously promoting African interests that are as diverse as the continent itself.

US policymakers face a number of questions regarding their country’s policies towards Africa: What can the United States do to assist in the development of sustainable human security? What role should foreign aid play in efforts to establish sustainable development? Considering the complexities of internal conflicts in Africa, what goals should define U.S.-African relations? How should environmental concerns influence and shape regional American foreign policy? What are the security concerns of the United States in Africa, and how can the United States best address them in a period of decreasing resources?

Economic Interests

American economic interests in Africa are increasing. Africa is simultaneously one of the fastest growing regions of the world and a still largely untapped market. In discussions of economic interests and Africa, much of the conversation revolves around natural resources. These conversations, however, miss the fact that in the wake of the severe recession that began in 2008 Africa represents one of the few bright spots in the global economy. According to the International Monetary Fund’s most recent analysis, the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa have returned to their pre-crisis growth rates; the IMF projects regional growth rates to average over five percent through 2012.[1] To compare, the IMF projects growth in the United States and Europe to be around one percent over the same timeframe. Much of this growth will occur due to growing domestic demand as Africans had less exposure to global financial markets during the recession, and these countries have since become more attractive to foreign capital. Signs of increasing political stability, or at least a willingness to address many of the causes of instability, contribute to the growing attractiveness of Africa to foreign investors. One need only to look at the progress the African Union has made in regional collective security efforts in Sudan, Ethiopia, and the Ivory Coast. While violence is all too common, the situation is much more positive than it had been a decade ago. Policymakers should consider the best ways to strengthen these positive economic trends. The United States’ interests primarily center on energy resources, but there is opportunity elsewhere. Policymakers must determine where those opportunities are and how to create mutually beneficial arrangements.

Regional Energy. The U.S. Energy Information Agency estimates that 11 percent of undiscovered oil sources are in Africa and much of that is accessible offshore. Today, Nigeria exports almost as much oil to the United States as Saudi Arabia, and that could increase with greater stability in the oil rich Niger delta region. The National Intelligence Council projects that Nigeria’s share of US oil consumption will reach 25 percent by 2015. The vast majority of Africa’s oil exports will come from a stretch of coastline between Nigeria and Angola called the Gulf of Guinea, where an estimated 50 billion barrels of oil reserves are located.[2] Recent finds of new oil fields from the Mauritanian coast to Equatorial Guinea are nearly certain to change the economic, social, and possibly political situation in West and Central Africa by attracting multinational energy corporations and private industry. This new investment could help African countries to gain a firm economic footing, which may enable greater social and political stability; or those countries may succumb to the paradox of plenty and suffer from their newfound wealth. Although African oil exporters may never replace the Middle East as an important strategic resource region for the United States, Africa has the potential to significantly increase the diversity of supply and reduce U.S. dependency on Middle East oil.

In addition to their oil resources, African countries also contain an abundance of other natural resources. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is blessed (or perhaps cursed) with abundant quantities of diamonds, copper, cobalt, gold and a mineral called coltan, which is vital to electronics. It is estimated that 80 percent of the world’s supply of coltan is in the DRC.[3] The UN reported in 2001 that multiple international companies were willing to ignore the source and collection process for these minerals; little has changed in the last decade. Other states like Sierra Leone, Angola and Botswana have significant natural resources, and as with the DRC it is difficult to ensure that non-state actors, including multi-national corporations, do not exploit them. In addition, China has increased its interactions with African states in order to secure access to oil and other natural resources.

What policies can the United States develop that will ensure long-term U.S. access to Africa’s important energy and other resources? What might be the roles and responsibilities of the private sector? How should the United States deal with other nations and their efforts to secure access to natural resources in Africa?

Political and Economic Development

The imperative of stronger political and economic development is clear. Countries that have higher levels of political stability and economic development are less prone to see conflict – both internal and international.[4] For this reason, development clearly falls within the foreign policy objectives of the United States. The U.S. National Security Strategy explicitly states, “Development is a strategic, economic and moral imperative.”[5] This claim raises an important question: Do American actions match such statements?

The issue of development in Africa is too large, however, for the United States to address unilaterally. The United Nations has identified Africa, which contains twenty-five of the world’s poorest countries, as the most underdeveloped continent. On September 22, 2010, the heads of state meeting at the UN headquarters signed a document pledging to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. This document stated:

[w]e recognize that more attention should be given to Africa, especially those countries most off track to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. Progress has been made in some African countries, but the situation in others remains a concern, not least because the continent is among the hardest hit by the financial and economic crisis. We note that aid to Africa has increased in recent years; however, it still lags behind the commitments that have been made. We therefore strongly call for the delivery of those commitments.[6]

At this meeting, President Obama announced the first ever U.S. Global Development Policy, which will involve changing how the U.S. defines success in development and leveraging the lessons of the Millennium Challenge Corporation.

The Millennium Challenge Corporation pledged to nearly double the amount of American aid for development in poor countries. This program requires applicants to prove their worthiness by demonstrating a commitment to the rule of law, investment in human capital, and supporting free markets. Approximately 70 percent of the over $7 billion that the Millennium Challenge Corporation has invested in programs has gone to African countries. “Country ownership” has started to replace the traditional approach to foreign aid, which generally did not plan for how aid would support economic growth. Under this new approach, countries like Senegal and Ghana that respect civil liberties stand to benefit considerably.

How will the new U.S. Global Development Policy facilitate the development of a self-sustaining, free, secure, and well-governed Africa? Is there a way to leverage American power in the area of economic and political development through means other than state intervention? Are the United Nations Millennium Development Goals initiatives the ideal vehicle for providing aid? Have we effectively used these other resources? Are there public/private partnerships available to provide assistance for those who need it the most?

Underscoring these challenges is the impact of widespread poverty and scarcity in the region.[7] While there are several positive economic indicators, a lack of infrastructure limits the abilities of these poorer states to join in international trade in a way that would make development viable. States like Tanzania have gone from literacy rates of 90 percent following independence to current rates around 70 percent, limiting the economic viability of the population. Sub-Saharan African countries have the lowest primary school completion rates in the world, while average life expectancy has declined from 50 to 46 years since 1990, primarily due to HIV/AIDs. A history of civil war, political corruption, and a variety of both natural and man-made catastrophes frame the African future just as surely as early signs of economic prosperity do.

Regional Security Concerns

The Arab Spring that swept across North Africa generated a series of mixed outcomes. While demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt were mostly peaceful, the protests in Libya turned into a civil war that quickly became internationalized, with West and African mercenaries involved in the fighting.[8] The approach of the United States was to support the removal of authoritarian regimes mainly from the background so as not to put an American face on efforts of regime change. Policymakers should consider whether the use of covert action and behind-the-scenes diplomacy were the most effective means to further American foreign policy objectives, or whether there are more effective means to achieve political stability. The Libyan civil war is just one of several that have threatened the positive trends in Africa. Conflicts in Darfur, the Horn of Africa, and in the DRC have, at times, seemed intractable. Yet in all cases the violence appears to be waning.

Much of the progress has been due to the collective security efforts of the African Union. The African Union’s development has centered on its collective security operations across the continent. The African Union has been active in a variety of operations in Somalia, Darfur, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.[9] This illustrates the evolution of African political beliefs. Until the period of violent civil conflicts that raged across Africa through the early 2000s, the prevailing political ideology favored absolute sovereignty and non-interference. The internationalization of internal conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa, however, caused a shift from non-interference to non-indifference. Through involvement in these conflicts and reflection on their causes, the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa have begun to acknowledge that states lacking effective domestic institutions may become fragile and eventually fail. In such states, the risk of internal conflict increases, as does the risk instability and violence spreading across state borders via refugee and migration crises.[10] Because failing states pose potential security challenges to their neighbors – and even to non-neighbors, when these failing states provide safe havens for violent non-state actors -- their internal situations necessitate a multifaceted approach; military efforts alone are inadequateWhat can the United States do to facilitate greater gains in security in Africa while not appearing to be overbearing? What security sector reforms will benefit both Africa and the United States?

Internationalized Internal Conflict. Several recent African wars have begun as civil conflicts and then expanded to the point where neighboring states were drawn into the conflicts. Wars of this sort are the largest source of instability in Central and West Africa. They tend to create appalling human security issues. The DRC and Central Africa has seen conflict propagated through child soldiers, physical violence against civilians, and black market resource exploitation. Sexual assault has been one of the primary means of terrorizing the civilian population in Eastern Congo, with both government forces and rebel groups responsible for such reprehensible behavior.[11] This situation may worsen with the pending withdrawal of the largest UN peacekeeping force in history.[12] Nearby Uganda faces continuing threats from the Lord’s Resistance Army due to their ability to vanish across the DRC border to refit and rearm in this ungoverned space. Those responsible for the atrocities in Rwanda continue to threaten the Rwandan government from refugee camps in DRC. Resumption of conflict in Kenya could spill over into Tanzania and the continuing governance challenges in Somalia makes the country a breeding ground for terrorism. All across the African continent, then, civil wars threaten to spiral into regional conflicts and humanitarian crises.

At what point does regional instability and conflict become a security issue for the United States? Are human rights and security issues sufficient rationale to intervene in regional troubles? If it is within the purview of U.S. national interests, how does the United States project power to these areas in a way that increases the stability of the continent? Should the United States consider using organizations like the African Union to increase stability and security in ungoverned spaces? What role does the military play in these missions versus political tools? Are there non-military ways to address these security concerns?

Terrorism. Terrorism is a concern only in limited regions across Africa; it is not a pervasive security threat for most of the region. U.S. efforts in security assistance have centered on counterterrorism and foreign internal defense in order to prevent the spread of terrorism south of the Saharan Desert.[13] These preventive assistance measures represent the security concerns of the United States in the region. The growing franchise model of al-Qaeda makes groups like al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) a concern in North Africa.[14] AQIM is responsible for nearly a dozen attacks against Western interests, including sophisticated attacks employing vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices, and simultaneous suicide bombings. AQIM possesses the capability to threaten U.S. and Western interests in North Africa and the Sahel. As authoritarian regimes across North Africa have fallen, questions have arisen as to who will govern these states next. There is real concern that Islamist governments may radically alter the political landscape and make Africa a source for more anti-American sentiment.[15] Political opposition in the United States has been vocal about the possibility that the rebels the United States has assisted, in concert with NATO, may be dedicated to supporting terrorism against the United States.[16]