Christmas Comes Early for Consumers As Prices Continue to Fall

16 December 2014

Christmas comes early for consumers as prices continue to fall

The latest grocery share figures from Kantar Worldpanel, published today for the 12 weeks ending 7 December 2014, show that despite falling prices, the grocery markethas returned to marginal growth of 0.1%, after last period’s historic first ever recorded decline. This is thanks to shoppers putting slightly more in their baskets compared with the same time last year.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, explains: “Britain’s supermarket price war is ramping up ahead of the all-important Christmas period. Retailers are selling more items on promotion, leading to like-for-like prices falling by 0.7% compared with this time last year. Cheaper groceries are an early Christmas present for shoppers, saving them £182 million in the past 12 weeks alone but this puts pressure on the supermarkets. We expect grocery deflation to continue well into 2015 as the price war rumbles on.

“At the discount end of the market the two German retailers Aldi and Lidl have reached a record combined market share this period with 8.6% of the market, up 1.5 percentage points over the past year. Aldi recorded the fastest growing sales of any retailer at22.3% and is followed closely behind by Lidl with18.3% sales growth.”

Meanwhile Waitrose, the traditionally strong performer in the festive season, continues its impressive run. It has grown its sales by 6.0%, extending an unbroken pattern of growth dating back to February 2009.

Asda’s sales dipped by 1.0% taking its share down to 16.7% however it did record the best performance among the big four. Tesco’s sales slowed by 2.7% in the latest 12 week period. This is its best result since June, showing some limited signs of stabilisation for the retailer. Meanwhile, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons both lost share, with sales dipping by 1.8% and 3.2% respectively.

Ends

An update on inflation

Grocery inflation has seen its fifteenth successive fall and now stands at -0.7%* for the 12 week period ending 7 December 2014. This means shoppers are now paying less for a representative basket of groceries than they did in 2013. This is another record low since Kantar Worldpanel began recording GPI in October 2006 and reflects the impact of Aldi and Lidl and the market’s competitive response, as well as deflation in some major categories including vegetables, milk and bread.

*This figure is based on over 75,000 identical products compared year-on-year in the proportions purchased by shoppers and therefore represents the most authoritative figure currently available. It is a ‘pure’ inflation measure in that shopping behaviour is held constant between the two comparison periods – shoppers are likely to achieve a lower personal inflation rate if they trade down or seek out more offers.

Kantar Worldpanel supermarket share app

Kantar Worldpanel’s supermarket share app has been relaunched. The app has been optimised for iPad, iPhone and Android and includes data and intelligence from Great Britain, Ireland, Spain and Portugal.Download now on iTunes and Google play.

Notes to editors

Every year we review and rework our dataset to ensure that it remains the best and most accurate read of the British grocery market. This year, our rework has had a minor impact on Lidl’s reported market shares at a 12-week ending level. These changes are all within +/- 0.2 percentage points of market share and are reflected in the latest numbers. Other retailers have been affected in very minor increments. For reworked historical data, please contact Camargue.

Please note that four week ending or six week ending retailer share data should not be used in media reporting. We would recommend that you use the 12 week ending data stated in this release, as it covers a longer time period which means it is a superior indicator of retailer performances and trends.

For all publicly-quoted Worldpanel data, users of our research (including media) must ensure that data is sourced Kantar Worldpanel.

These findings are based on Kantar Worldpanel data for the 12 weeks to 7 December 2014. Kantar Worldpanel monitors the household grocery purchasing habits of 30,000 demographically representative households in Great Britain. All data discussed in the above announcement is based on the value of items being bought by these consumers, Kantar Worldpanel will only support data that is published in the context we have presented it and our own interpretation of these findings. We cannot be held responsible for any other interpretation of these findings.

For further information, please contact:

Peter Rogers/Laura Pattie
Camargue
+44 (0)20 7636 7366
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