A Latent Conflict Between Two Nuclear Powers. (India Pakistan Case)
A latent conflict between two nuclear powers. (India – Pakistan case)
Historical issues……………………………….2
Current situation……………………………….3
Former UNSC ACTIONS……………………..4
Nuclear implications………...…………………4
The United Nations Security Council
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations, its main task being the maintenance of international peace and security, as well as establishing peacekeeping operations, international sanctions, and authorizing military actions through Security Council resolutions. The Security Council consists of 15 member states. The great powers, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, and the United States serve as the body’s five permanent members. These permanent members can veto any substantive Security Council resolution, including those on the admission of new member states or candidates for Secretary General. The Security Council also has 10 non-permanent members, elected on a regional basis to serve staggered two-year terms. What’s more, the body’s presidency rotates monthly among its members.
The Security Council held its first session on 17thJanuary 1946 at Church House, Westminster, London. Since then, the Security Council has taken permanent residence at the United Nations Headquarters in New York City. It also travelled to many cities, holding sessions in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in 1972, in Panama City, Panama, and in Geneva, Switzerland, in 1990. The UNSC’s resolutions are typically enforced by UN peacekeepers – military forces voluntarily provided by member states, and funded independently of the main UN budget.
Historical issues
To have a good understanding of what this conflict means and what the implications of it are in the current situation in the region, a very significant moment must be underlined in the history of this very controversial relation : the partition of 1947. After three hundred years in India, the British finally left, the subcontinent was partitioned into two independent nation states: Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan. Immediately, there began one of the greatest migrations in human history, as millions of Muslims moved to West and East Pakistan (the latter now known as Bangladesh) while millions of Hindus and Sikhs headed in the opposite direction. The fear of Kashmir acceding to India was what had triggered the struggle. The Pakistani Army infiltrated Kashmir through tribal forces in an attempt to occupy Kashmir. This was followed by the Maharaja of Kashmir, Hari Singh signing the agreement of accession to the dominion of India resulting in a full fledged war between India and Pakistan and the solidification of the Line of Control. Even though the war did not have a conclusive victor, India managed to claim two-thirds of Kashmir, while Pakistan got about a third of the territory.[1]
In 1965 the conflict began to have even deeper implications , Pakistan launched an attack named Gibralter, but it failed and the indian army had a massive counter offensive which resulted in the defeat of Pakistan.
The war of 1971 was unique in the sense that this time Kashmir was not the bone of contention. It occurred as a result of the ongoing war between East Pakistan and West Pakistan. While India gave full support to East Pakistan’s cause, it formally entered into war with Pakistan after it carried out strikes on forward airbases and radar installations of the Indian Air Force. Occurring over a course of 13 days the war saw the largest number of prisoners of war since World War II. The war resulted in the independence of East Pakistan and the creation of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. The 1972 Shimla agreement between India and Pakistan delineated the LoC as it stands today but curiously the agreement did so only till a point called NJ9842 for everybody believed that the area beyond it is just too inhospitable. India assumed that the line further stretches northwards along the Saltoro ridge(shown above as dotted line) while Pakistan assumed that the line goes further North East. Before the Shimla agreement, in 1963 itself, Pakistan had "ceded" a part of Pak Ocupied Kashmir called the Shaksgam valley to China(this lies immediately northwards of the Siachen In the 1970s and early 80s, Pakistan began to issue visas to foreigners for mountaineering expeditions to the Siachen region. An Indian Army expert on mountaineering, then Major Narendra Kumar got to know of it. He brought this to the knowledge of the Army high command. Therefore, India conducted Operation Meghdoot in 1984 and occupied the glacier. Pakistan has made several futile attempts since then to dislodge India from there.
Current situation
With continued violence in Kashmir and a heightened threat of terrorist activity by Pakistan-based militant groups, the threat of a serious military confrontation between India and Pakistan remains high. In January 2016, six armed militants attacked an Indian Air Force base inPathankot(near the border with Pakistan), killing seven Indian security personnel before being killed themselves.
In July 2016, anti-India protests broke out across the Kashmir valley following thedeathof local militant leader BurhanWani. Violent demonstrations andprotestscalling for an independent Kashmir havecontinuedthrough November 2016, with more than ninety people killed and thousands wounded in the heavy-handed response by Indian security forces.
In September 2016, armed militantsattackeda remote Indian Army base in Uri, near the Line of Control, killing eighteen Indian soldiers in the deadliest attack on the Indian armed forces in decades. Indian officials haveaccusedPakistani militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad, a group with alleged ties to the Inter-Services Intelligence—Pakistan’s main intelligence agency—of being behind the attack.Later in September 2016, the Indian militaryannouncedit had carried out “surgical strikes” on terrorist camps inside Pakistani-controlled territory across the Line of Control, while the Pakistani military denied that any such operation had taken place.
Tensions remain high between the nuclear-armed neighbours. In late October 2016 and again in November 2016, Indian and Pakistani diplomats were eachexpelledfrom each other’s countries on charges ofespionage, and anuptickin cross-border firing along the Line of Control continued into November 2016, with military and civilian deaths on both sides.[2]
Former UN implications on the topic
Resolution 39 it was adopted on January 20, 1948. The resolution proposed a peaceful solution regarding the Kashmir conflict by setting up a committee of three members; one member each was chosen by India and Pakistan and these two chosen members together chose the third member. This committee was to give joint letters to the council suggesting further steps to help maintain prosperity in Kashmir. This resolution also created the Commission for India and Pakistan (UNIP) to investigate the conflict and mediate the disputes between the two nations.
Resolution 47 tried to put an end to the hostility around the border by withdrawing the troops of both nations (except people to maintain law and order) and providing for the return of refugees and the release of political prisoners. It held a plebiscite in the state of Jammu and Kashmir to discover the aspirations of the people. On December 11, 1948 the UNCIP set new proposals elaborating more on the plebiscite. The question of the accession of Jammu and Kashmir was to be decided by a democratic method of plebiscite if there were a ceasefire and both countries maintained the truce
. Resolution 307 This was the last resolution on the topic .The UNSC proposed it after the war of 1971 but the unforeseen Soviet veto blocked the resolution .
The Nuclear implications
A very important aspect of this conflict is its high risk potential for nuclear warfare. In terms of nuclear warheads the two states have similar capabilities with Pakistan having between 120 and 130 warheads, and India having between 110-120 warheads. [3]
On 23 December 2016, the UN General Assembly adopted a historic resolutionto convene negotiations in 2017 on a treaty prohibiting nuclear weapons. The voting result was113nations in favour and35against, with13abstentions.[4] For the issue at hand the important thing to take into consideration is that both India and Pakistan have abstained, which means that they would be willing to have a favourable vote for nuclear weapons abolition in a week time, however an official position has not been expressed up until this point on the actual way they are going to vote.
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