This Was Mentioned in the New York Times As Quoted in the Reference (A) Above

<20091209>
Archived distributions can be retrieved at; < This archive includes a html version of this list distribution and its MS/WORD version with its filename as “year-month-date.doc.” You can also access all of its attachments, if any.
Peter O. Jack <
Dr. Tuncer Ören <
Andrea Marcello Bassi <
Dr. Kristof Kloeckner <
Aomar Benslimane, Ph.D. <
Frank A. Moretti, PhD. <
Josie Lianna Kaye <
Allenna Leonard <
Khaitsa Wasiyo, EdD, PMP <
Yuzo Kumasaka <
References:

(a) (20090809)(1) New York Times article on “Climate Change Seen as Threat to U.S. Security,” (2) Joint conference/workshop with CICR of Columbia University

(b) (20091201) Applying for the International Development Research Center (IDRC) fund by Nigerian, Bangladeshi and Indian colleagues with Dr. Tuncer Oren of the University of Ottawa

(c) (20090813)Outline how to interface simulation models of various countries for GCEPG/GSEEED projects

(d) (20091112) Report on our visit to IBM on November 3rd, 2009

(e) (20091121) (1) Creation of Global Early Warning System/Poland and (2) Task on configuring inter-linkage of models

(f) (01/25/09)Invitation to a blog to discuss the Design of Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG)

(g) Live Web-Casting Studio XENO: All-in-One Portable User Friendly ( <
(h) (20090917)Chilean government's precedence on the use of System Dynamics methodology and envisioned "Operation Room" for GEWS

Dear All:
(1) As said in my previous list distributions, we will have a demonstration (*) of gaming/simulation on the verification of energy policies proposed by Former Vice President, Mr. Al Gore and President Barack Obama (both Nobel Peace Laureate) to replace fossil fuel with renewable one (e.g., wind and/or solar energy) to generate electricity in the United States in relation to appropriate allocation of oil revenue in Niger Delta of Nigeria, -- What would also be the consequences to other economic and social structures in the US and in other countries, particularly Nigeria?

(*) This is to be held during Global Symposium on “Climate Change and International Peace and Security, Global Challenges and Global Solutions” at the Interdisciplinary Approaches Center for International Conflict Resolution (CICR) in the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) of Columbia University in May 2010. The potential invitees would be from all different fields including scientists, energy specialists, military figures, academics, practitioners, policy makers, government representatives and representatives from multi-lateral organizations.
The main idea of this conference is mainly based on conflict resolution;

“Much of the public and political debate on global warming has focused on finding substitutes for fossil fuels, reducing emissions that contribute to greenhouse gases and furthering negotiations toward an international climate treaty — not potential security challenges.” “Or we will pay the price later in military terms,” -- “And that will involve human lives.”

This was mentioned in The New York Times as quoted in the Reference (a) above.

I will also organize one day session at Polytechnic Institute of New York University (after the sessions at Columbia University finished) to discuss the technicalities of the outline of our projects for creating Global Early Warning System (GEWS) and Global University System (GUS) -- BTW, the GEWS was originally proposed by the Prime Minister of the U.K., Mr. Gordon Brown, at the G20 Summit in London last April.
(2) A National Geographic (NG) Magazine said that 40% of the oil produced in Nigeria is exported to North America (e.g., the U.S. and Canada). Another 21% to European countries and 16% to the Far Eastern countries (e.g., Japan, South Korea, and China, etc.). The NG also said that 95% of the total revenue of the Nigerian federal government comes from the oil revenue.
The Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen this week is firmly committed to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, which is mainly carbon dioxide, which mostly comes from the burning of fossil fuels in producing electricity, i.e., energy;

Fig. 1 <

Fig. 2 <

Subsequently, if Al Gore’s and Obama’s propositions would become successful in the U.S. (which may subsequently be emulated in Europe and in the Far Eastern countries later), it would mean the end of oil revenue to the Nigerian government — a severe economic blow (*) (almost DEATH SENTENCE!!) to them, since Nigerian oil has been preferred with low sulfur content for electric power generation plants.

(*) Al Gore wants to eliminate all oil import for the electricity generating power plant by 2010, and Obama 20% of it by 2010.

Dear Peter:
BTW, can you find out what is the total amount of oil revenue/year by the Nigerian federal government, or the total amount of oil export from Nigeria and average price per barrel?

(3) A remedy to cope with this devastating crisis could be as follows.
The money saved by the US, European and the Far Eastern countries as not importing oil from Nigeria may be reserved as the credit of the “Clean Development Mechanism” of the “Cap and Trade” system, which money is then to be donated to;

(a) Nigeria to establish the so-called Education Center (*) in Niger Delta region (**), which will export educational services to nearby ECOWAS countries as Cuba does (***),

(*) however, here Nigeria would use the advanced Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) through broadband Internet and also currently lunched domestic satellite which foot-print covers ECOWAS, compared with the brick-and-mortar style approach in the Education City of Qatar <
(**) This education center would absorb some of 80% unemployed university graduates in Nigeria — which figure I heard with astounding surprise from Prof. Turner T. Isoun, then Hon. Minister of the Nigerian Federal Ministry of Science and Technology, when Late Prof. Ajayi, DG of National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) took me to visit him in June of 2004.
(***) In November 2002, I was invited to Havana Institute of Technology in Cuba to learn that Cubans firstly concentrated to develop bio-engineering technology to boost the productivity of sugar cane (which was then their main exporting commodity), and after accomplished it, they turned their focus to develop high level pharmaceutical drugs which successfully marketed in Europe — alas, Bush administration once cynically construed it as the development of biological weapon of mass destruction!! When I visited, they were developing CDs of various scientific educational materials which were to be exported to Spanish speaking Latin American countries.

The raw materials of Industrial Age was tangible materials, e.g., coal, petroleum, steel, wheat, etc. The ones of New Knowledge Age is Intangible, e.g., brain power!! Nigerian has excellent brain power, and clear advantage over Japanese with English speaking, as similar to Indian. For example, Bangaluru of India earns almost US$ 5 billion by exporting software — even aims it to be US$ 50 billion by 2020 (****)!! (Outstanding Japanese computer and electronic companies send engineers to Bangaluru to learn the secret of such software export.) I saw an ABC TV news about a half year ago which showed a lady teacher from Bengaluru, India teaching mathematics to an American home study student with the use of videoconferencing through Internet at free of charge (or at very small fees). It said that American tutor charges almost US$100/hour while the Indian lady charges only US$10/hour. Similarly, X-ray photo is sent to India via satellite for the preliminary diagnosis which results will be sent back to the US by next morning — cardiologist there is at the US$ 25,000/yr compared 10 times more in the US. Why cannot Nigerian do the same?

(****) According to ABC TV News, Nigerians earn almost US$750 million by spam — some of spammer has 4 Benz automobiles and two houses!! -- I will refrain more horror stories about them here now (including the ones once appeared at the web site of the US Department of State).

(b) the Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS) (which include Nigeria) to foster e-learning, e-healthcare and e-governance, etc. in its member countries (as creating GUS in each of their countries) with the “Peace-Corp” type help from Nigeria.
Providing money for this purposes to the ECOWAS countries should be considered to be equivalent to promoting greening activities, i.e., “Financial support for mitigation (*****) of and adaptation to climate change by developing countries,” thus to be entitled for the credit of the Cap and Trade System.

(*****) Mitigation - Action that will reduce man-made climate change. This includes action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or absorb greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

This concept may also be extended to large polluters who would donate financial support to our GEWS/GUS activities in developing countries — another possible financial sources for the “Mega-Project” -- see below.

BTW, the Japanese government pledged US$4 billion to aid African countries at the TICAD –IV < -- this is because the Japanese government wants to have African countries’ vote for their becoming one of permanent members of the Security Council of the United Nations.

Dear Tuncer:
Extension of the above idea could well become a “Mega-Project” which you mentioned during our recent phone conversations. However, we better start it at this moment with small steps by the funds from the IDRC of Canada, -- you to be the co-directors of the projects for which our colleagues would apply from Bangladesh, India and Nigeria (see Reference (b) above).

(4) This demonstration could become the first step of creating Global Early Warning System (GEWS), as constructing national socio-economic, energy, environment simulation models of each participating countries, which will then be interconnected to form a global scale simulation model.
We would like to make each model run all the time, continuously and repetitively, say, from the year 2000 to 2050, as similar to a repetitive analog computer. The graphical presentation of the year 2000 to the present would be the past data, and the one from the present to the 2050 would be the prediction made by the simulation model. The initial conditions at the present would be revised with the fresh input data, say, about the national consensus or GDP (gross domestic product) figure, etc. This makes the simulation as similar to the one of a simulator/trainer of nuclear power plant or petroleum refinery or ethylene plant — or it could be the engine of a large oil tanker, which President Obama often quotes as analogous to the operation of the United State economy.
The models will then be their countries’ Early Warning System (EWS) which can interlink each other to form a regional EWS, too.
(5) Along the construction of national socio-economy-energy-environment simulation model, we plan to establish Global University System (GUS) to assist the model building, maintenance, administration and gaming execution, etc.
We will then have the following two-tier system;

a. One for training young would-be decision makers for understanding interwoven world phenomena with rational analysis and critical thinking, and then in crisis management, conflict resolution, and negotiation techniques basing on "facts and figures" and
b. The other for helping decision makers constructing a globally distributed decision-support system with policy analysis and evaluation for positive sum/win-win alternatives to conflict and war.

This is because we need to emphasize the importance of educating young would-be decision makers who are now in the teens and twenties who would become real decision makers at their 50 to 70 years ages around 2050s, when most of the UN’s Millennium Development Goals (MSGs) would not meet their targets, and hence would become fierce, severe resource competitions and conflicts issues. Their training in crisis management, conflict resolution, and negotiation techniques should be basing on "facts and figures." Their understanding gained with scientific and rational analysis and critical thinking with the gaming/simulation would be the basis of world peace, and hence ought to provide the basic principle of global education for peace.
I think that this would then be the win-win solution in global scale.
Dear Andrea:
(6) I understand that your Millennium Institute is now consummating a contract to construct national-energy models of 15 member countries of the Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS) -- starting with Nigeria. The models will then be their countries’ Early Warning System (EWS) which can interlink each other to form a regional EWS, too.
This is very significant movement and even a paradigm shift of political science, since such poor developing countries start using scientific methodology for their quantitative policy evaluation and setting, basing on facts and figures (instead of qualitative ones based on political illusions, as we witnessed at the opening of the Iraq/Oil War).
Since this is the same direction as of my life-long dream, I would like to help your Millennium Institute and ECOWAS as much as possible.
Another good sign of this is the top-down approach, as ECOWAS is a UN unit. This is because it is usually very difficult to make any bottom-up approach in this arena from academic to government policy-making levels — though some says that the current climate change is the very first which is affecting policy-makings basing on scientific observations.
(7) As mentioned in our previous correspondences, I understand that your MI has a US national energy-economic model, and is now working to construct a similar one for Nigeria, both of which models may be interconnected during our demonstration next May mentioned above. I would like to propose the following procedures for the demonstration — see also References (c) to (e) above;
(a) Plan A:
As the continuation of our visit to IBM with your video presentation (see Reference (d) above), I would like to pursue further how our projects can be accommodated with their cloud computing services;

Smart Analytics Cloud for System z

BTW, this was quoted in the Reference (d) above, too.

As said before, your US and Nigerian models are to be resided in the IBM cloud computing service domain to produce time-series (EXCEL type) tables, and then to be interlinked each other through a central (UN type) table for exogenous variables — see more in the Reference (f) above;

Fig. 3 <

I think that this IBM services would be very suited not only for your demonstration next May with the models of the US and Nigeria, but also for the GEWS projects in Bangladesh and India, GUS projects in Congo and Romania, meteorology forecasting in Ethiopia, etc., etc.

Dear Peter:
I expect you would interact with Nigeria model from Abuja, Nigeria through this IBM cloud computing service environment, if we succeed to get their services. You may need broadband Internet line. What is the speed of Internet at the demo site in next May?

(b) Plan B:
If the above does not work, this plan B is only with the use of Apple’s Macintosh laptop computers — pls browse through the following web sites and investigate their possible use for our demo;

(i) Experience the power of Automator and Apple Remote Desktop 3. <
With Automator actions available with ARD 3, you can automate a wide range of workgroup administration tasks such as configuration, setup, cleanup, and support.
(ii) Manage creative workgroups easily with Apple Remote Desktop 3. <
See some of the more than 50 new features that speed up and simplify software distribution, asset management, remote administration, and remote assistance.

As you see almost at the end of those web seminars, the computer screen of the second laptop (which could be the one in Nigeria) can be shown in the one of the first laptop (which could be located at the demonstration site), thus, you may be able to devise Automator to transfer exogenous variables from the tables of Figure 3 above.
Although this may necessitate for us to purchase Apple Remote and a server, the following web approach may circumvent it;

I have already checked this and found that it works fine.
(c) Plan C:
This plan will be the last resort as showing the simulation results of a single model which combined both of the US and Nigeria in a single laptop.
(8) Pls prepare the followings in order to approach to Kristof for the Plan A;

(a) Specifications of your US and Nigerian models,
(b) Ditto of simulation language program for the models,
(c) Ditto of operating system for the above.
(d) Any of your idea and comment how to utilize cloud computing technology at IBM.

Dear Aomar:
(9) You sat next to Kristof when we visited IBM on November 3rd.
You are now preparing a concept paper for our gaming/simulation demonstration next May, which outlines are mentioned above.
Pls include Andrea’s requirements into the concept paper so that it would be our project proposal to the IBM for our gaming/simulation and subsequent projects — including the GEWS projects of Bangladesh, India and Nigeria, etc. Pls feel free to utilize any part of the above into your writing.
Dear Frank:
(10) Many thanks for your msg (ATTACHMENT I) -- very glad to receive it after long absence.
Upon your request, I admitted Lauren Klein into our list — pls ask her to send me her full address (snail mail, tel/fax, URL if possible, etc.) so that I can put her at an appropriate location in our main address book.
(11) I would like to ask your help to our demonstration at the conference site next May mentioned above for hardware (computer and telecom, etc.) arrangements of the demonstration as well as videoconferencing through broadband Internet. What I envision would be as follows with large (larger than 32 inches) flat TV screens;

(a) to show the simulation result of the US model,
(b) ditto of the Nigerian model,
(c) to show video of the CICR/SIPA conference room which is to be multicasted through broadband Internet around the world,
(d) to show video of the Nigerian gathering,
(e) to show any descriptive video/photo of the US side,
(f) ditto of Nigerian side, etc.

I have already tested the connection of my MacBook laptop to SONY 32 inch flat TV screen with excellent result — much better than analog projector!!