The Uneven impact of Economic Recession: Bristol and Liverpool Compared

ESRC Project Reference: RES-062-23-2963

Working Paper 1: An Integrated Analysis of the Bristol-Liverpool Household Survey

Dr Gerwyn Jones

DRAFT NOT FOR QUOTATION OR CIRCULATION

Introduction

This report presents the integrated findings from the MORI household survey exploring the impact of the economic downturn on households in Bristol and Liverpool. Each section presents the overall findings for the survey questions followed by a brief analysis of the significant findings under four key sub-groups, namely: City, ACORN Group, Tenure, Gender and households with and without dependents.

1. Demography

The survey sample included a total of 1,013 households, split evenly between Bristol and Liverpool (figure 1.1 and 1.2).

Figure 1.1: Bristol & Liverpool Survey Sample

There were slightly more female respondents to male respondents, with a 54 per cent to 46 per cent split, respectively (figure 1.2).

Figure 1.2: Male & Female Respondents (QC1)

The age profile of respondents was broadly representative of the national population composition, within a few percentage points of the 2001 census for Bristol and Liverpool(N.B. could do with more accurate comparison with 2011 census when this comes out). Figure 1.3.

Figure 1.3: Age (QC2)

The survey also sought to gain broad coverage across a ten key ACORN groups (Annex 1). Very near to 10 per cent of the survey sample was achieved in each of these ten groups. Figure 1.4.

Figure 1.4: ACORN Groups

Over two fifths of those surveyed were married households, while co-habiting households made up just over a tenth of the sample. Single households made up just over a fifth of the sample, whilst a tenth were widowed. Fewer than a tenth of households were divorced. Figure 1.5.

Figure 1.5: Marital Status (DE1)

Over two thirds of the households had no dependants. Of those with dependants, most had one child (14%), followed by just under a tenth (9%) with two children. The ratio of dependant to non dependant households closely matches the 2001 census averages(N.B. need to match to 2011 census when this comes out at end of year). Figure 6.

Figure 1.6: Number of Dependants (DE2)

The vast majority of the survey cohort came from a white background, with 95% falling into this category (figure 1.7).

Figure 1.7: Ethnicity (DE4)

2. Employment Status

Over two-fifths of the respondents were working, either full or part-time. Nearly a quarter of respondents were not working, while a third were retired (figure 2.1).

Of the 44 per cent that were working, nearly 30 per cent were in full-time employment, with 11.5 per cent working part-time (between 16 and 29 hours) and just over 3 per cent were working part time under 16 hours a week.

Of the 24 per cent that were not working, around 7.5 per cent were unemployed (either registered or seeking work but not registered); 3.5 per cent were at home and not seeking work; just over 4 per cent were long term sick and/or disabled; 2 per cent were full time carers; just over 5 per cent were in full-time education; while just over 1 per cent noted ‘other’ (figure 2.2).

Figure 2.1: Employment Status (EM1)

Figure 2.2: Employment Status Break Down (EM1)

Findings across sub-groups

By City

  • A significantly higher proportion of respondents were working in Bristol (48%) compared to Liverpool (41%), with nearly a half of respondents in the former working, compared to two-fifths in the latter.
  • Liverpool had a significantly higher share of retired respondents, with 36 per cent falling into this category, compared to 28 per cent in Bristol.
  • Of those that were working, Bristol has a significantly higher share of respondents in full-time employment, with over a third (34%) falling into this category, compared to just over a quarter (26%) in Liverpool.
  • Liverpool has a significantly higher share of those that were ‘long term sick/disabled’, with three times as many than Bristol - 6 per cent in the former and 2 per cent in the latter.
  • Liverpool also has a significantly higher share of respondents stating they were fully retired, with 36 per cent, compared to 28 per cent in Bristol.

By ACORN group

  • Two ACORN groups had a significantly higher than average percentage of households in work: Educated Urbanites (Group E) and Starting Out’s (Group G). A further four groups had slightly more than average percentage of households that were working: Flourishing Families (Group C), Secure Families (Group H), Post Industrial Families (Group L) and Blue Collar Roots (Group M).
  • Three ACORN groups had a significantly higher than average proportion of households that were not working: Starting Outs (Group G), Struggling Families (Group N) and Burdened Singles (Group O). A further three ACORN groups had a slightly higher than average representation of respondents that were not working: Educated Urbanites (Group E), Post Indisutrial Families (Group L) and Blue Collar Roots (Group M).
  • Affluent Greys (Group B), Flourishing Families (Group C) and Prudent Penioners (Group J) had a significantly higher than average representation of retired household respondents, while Secure Families (Group H) also had a slightly above average representation here.

By Tenure

  • A significantly higher proportion of private tenants (52%) and owner occupiers (46%) were working in comparison to social tenants (29%).
  • A significantly higher proportion of social tenants (44%) and private tenants (41%) were not working, in comparison to owner occupiers (13%).
  • A significantly higher proportion of owner occupiers (41%) were retired, cf. social tenants (27%) and private tenants (6%). A significantly higher proportion of social tenants were also retired compared to private tenants.

By Gender

  • Working full-time: Nearly two-fifths (37%) of male repondents were working full-time, compared with just under a quarter (24%) of female respondents.
  • Part-time work (16-29 hours): Just over a sixth (17%) of female respondents were working part-time, over 16 hours, compared with a twentieth (5%) of males.
  • Not working: Just overa quarter (26%) of the female cohort were not working, compared with a fifth (20%) of the male cohort.
  • At home/not seeking work: Just over a twentieth (6%) of females were at home/not seeking work, compared with 1 per cent of males.
  • Full-time carer: 3 per cent of the female cohort were full-time carers, compared with 1 per cent of males.

By Dependents

  • A significantly higher proportion of respondents with dependents were working, with 63% falling into this category, cf. 38% of households without dependents.
  • A significantly higher proportion of respondents with dependents were not working, with 36% falling into this category, cf. 19% of those without dependents.
  • A significantly higher proportion of respondents with no dependents were retired, with 43% falling into this category, cf. 2% of those with dependents.

2.2 Impacts on jobs over past 3 years

Households were asked to comment on whether any of the following (from figure 2.4) had happened to them over the past three years.

  • Just under a third (30%) of respondents noted receiving a pay rise
  • A sixth (16%) had got a better job or promotion
  • Just under a tenth (8%) had been made redundant
  • A tenth had been unemployed for more than 6 weeks at a time
  • Just over a tenth (11%) had taken a pay cut
  • Just under a twentieth (19%) had to work longer hours/work overtime
  • 7% had taken on an additional job to meet living costs

Figure 2.4: What has happened past 3 years (EM4)

Key sub-group findings

By City

  • There were no significant differences between Bristol and Liverpool in relation to impacts on jobs over the past three years.

By ACORN group

  • A significantly higher proportion than average of Educated Urbanites (E) and Blue Collar Roots (M) had got a better job/promotion over the past three years, with 33% and 25% stating this, respectively. The proportion of Educated Urbanites in this category was twice the overall average of 16%.
  • A significantly higher proportion than average of Blue Collar Roots (M) had been asked to work part-time rather than full-time, with 8% of this group stating this, over twice as much as the overall average of 3%.
  • A significantly higher proportion than average of Secure Families (H) had been asked to reduce their hours significantly, with 7% of this group falling into this category, over three times higher than the overall average of 2%.

By Tenure

  • A significantly higher proportion of private tenants, with 27%, had got a better job/promotion in the past 3 years, cf. 12% of owner occupiers and 13% of social tenants.
  • A significantly higher proportion of private tenants, with 15%, had been unemployed for 6 weeks or more at a time, cf. 7% of owner occupiers.
  • A significantly higher proportion of social tenants, at 13%, had been asked by their employers to reduce their working hours slightly, cf. 4% of owner occupiers.
  • A significantly higher proportion of private tenants, at 31%, had to work overtime or longer hours, cf. 16% of owner occupiers.

By Gender

  • Significantly more males (13%) than females (7%) stated they had been unemployed for more than 6 weeks at a time
  • Significantly more males (14%) than females (8%) stated they had taken a pay cut.

By Dependents

  • There were no significant differences between households with and without dependents to this question.

2.3 Job Security

Employed respondents were asked how secure they felt in their current job. While over two thirds of respondents felt secure in their current employment, nearly a quarter felt insecure, with just under a tenth stating they felt ‘very insecure’ (figure 2.5).

Figure 2.5: Job Security (EM7)

Findings by sub-group

City

  • There were no significant findings relating to job security by city of residence

ACORN group

  • There were no significant findings by ACORN group as the sample for this question was too small across many groups for reliable significance testing.

Tenure

  • There were no significant findings as the sample for this question was too small across some tenure groups for reliable comparative significance testing.

Gender

  • There were no significant findings relating to job security and gender

By Dependents

  • There were no significant differences between households with and without dependents to this question.

3. Tenure

3.1 Tenure Type

Just over three-fifths of households in the survey were owner occupiers, while a fifth were private tenants and approximately a sixth were social tenants (figure 3.1).

Figure 3.1: Tenure Type (TH2)

Findings by sub group

City

  • There were no significant differences between Bristol and Liverpool relating to these three broad occupancy types (N.B. There were differences within some of these three occupancy types, in particular: significantly more owner occupiers in Bristol owned their property with a mortgage or loan; and significantly more social tenants in Liverpool rented from a housing association.)

ACORN group

  • A significantly higher proportion than average of Affluent Greys (B) (94%), Secure Families (C) (91%) and Flourishing Families (H) (86%) were owner occupiers.
  • A significantly higher proportion of Struggling Families (N) (46%) and Burdened Singles (O) (72%) were social tenants.
  • A significantly higher proportion of Educated Urbanites (E) (55%) were private tenants cf. all other ACORN groups, while significantly more Staring Outs (G) (39%) were also private tenants cf. most other ACORN groups.

Gender

  • Female respondents were significantly more likely to be social tenants, with nearly a fifth (18%) of females falling into this category, compared with 14 per cent of males

Dependents

  • A significantly higher proportion of households with dependents were social tenants (24%) and private tenants (25%), cf. households with dependents, in which 13% were social tenants and 18% private tenants.
  • A significantly higher proportion of household without dependents were owner occupiers (67%), cf. 51% of households with dependents that fell into this category.

3.2 Housing Equity

Of the households that were owner occupiers, the vast majority, 74 per cent, believed that their house was worth more than they owed on it. Nevertheless, just over a tenth (12%) of households stated that their house was worth less than they owed on it, and a further tenth believed that the house was worth about the same as they owed on it (figure 3.2).

Figure 3.2: Household Equity (TH4)

Findings by sub group

City

  • Significantly more Bristol respondents stated that their house was worth more than they owed on it (i.e. those who stated it was worth ‘much more’ and a ‘little more’ combined), with nearly four-fifths (78%) of Bristol households noting this, compared to just over two-thirds (68%) of those in Liverpool.
  • Although not a statistically significant majority, 15 per cent of Liverpool households believed their house was worth less (i.e. those who stated a ‘little less’ and ‘much less’ combined) than they owed on it, compared to 9 per cent in Bristol.

ACORN Groups

  • The numbers of respondents to this question was not large enough across all ACORN groups to make reliable comparative significance testing.

Tenure

  • The numbers of respondents to this question was not large enough across all tenure groups to make reliable comparative significance testing.

Gender

  • There were no significant differences between males and females relating to this question.

Dependents

  • A significantly higher proportion of households with dependents stated their house was worth less than they owed on it (18%), cf. 7% of households without dependents who stated this.

3.3 Renting

Private renters were asked how easy or difficult it would be for them to find somewhere suitable to rent in they needed to move fromtheir present accommodation. Nearly three-fifths (58%) believed it would be difficult to find somewhere else to live, with nearly a third stating it would be ‘very difficult’. Around a third of private renters believed it would be easy for them to find somewhere suitable to rent if they were required to move (figure 3.3).

Figure 3.3: Availability of Suitable Rented Accommodation (TH6)

Findings by sub-group

City

  • A significantly higher proportion of Liverpool renters believed it would be ‘easy’ for them to find suitable accommodation if they were required to move, with two-fifths (41%) noting this, compared to just over a quarter (27%) in Bristol.
  • Most renters in both cities believed it would be difficult to find somewhere suitable to rent if they were required to move, with 55 per cent noting this in Liverpool, and 61 per cent in Bristol.

ACORN group

  • The numbers of respondents to this question was not large enough across all ACORN groups to make reliable comparative significance testing.

Gender

  • There was a significantly higher proportion of female respondents who were in rented accommodation that stated it would be ‘very difficult’ for them to find suitable accommodation if they had to move, with just over two-fifths (41%) stating this, compared with just over a fifth (21%) of males.

Dependents

  • A significantly higher proportion of households with dependents stated it would be ‘difficult’ for them to find somewhere suitable to live if they needed to move, with 70% stating this, cf. 52% of those without dependents.
  • A significantly higher proportion of those without dependents stated it would be ‘easy’ for them to find somewhere suitable to live, with 39% stating this, cf. 23% of those with dependents.

4. Household Views on State of Economy

4.1 Viewson state of UK, City and Local Economy

Households were generally more pessimistic about the state of the UK economy over that of their city or local area in which they lived. Over four-fifths (83%) of households stated that they felt that the UK economy was ‘on the way down’ or ‘struggling’. This ratio was closer to half when talking about their own city and local area. Only 3 per cent of respondents felt the UK economy was on the way up/thriving. This figure stood at 14 per cent when talking about their city and 9 per cent when commenting on their local area (figures 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3.)

Figure 4.1: State of UK Economy (EC1c)

Figure 4.2: State of City Economy (EC1b)

Figure 4.3: State of Local Economy (EC1a)

Findings by sub-group

City

  • Local area: Significantly more Bristol respondents thought their local area was ‘really thriving/on the way’ up with 11% noting this, cf. 7% in Liverpool.
  • Local area: Significantly more Liverpool respondents thought their local area was ‘on the way down/struggling’, with 54% noting this, cf. 42% in Bristol.
  • City: Significantly more Liverpool respondents thought their city economy was ‘really thriving/on the way up’, with 20% noting this, cf. 9% in Bristol.
  • City: Significantly more Bristol respondents noted their city economy was ‘much the same as always’, with 30% stating this, cf. 23% in Liverpool.
  • UK: Significantly more Liverpool respondents stated the UK economy was ‘much the same as always’, with 13% stating this, against 9% in Bristol. There were no other significant differences between the two cities, when commenting on the state of the UK economy.

ACORN group

  • Local Area: Significantly more Educated Urbanites (E) than average stated their local area was ‘on the way up’, with 14% stating this.
  • City: Significantly more Educated Urbanites (E) than average stated their City economy ‘was much the same as always’, with 35% stating this.
  • City: Significantly more Flourishing Families (C) than average stated their city economy was ‘on the way down’, with 40% stating this.
  • UK: Significantly more Flourishing Families (C) than average stated it was ‘on the way up’, with 7% stating this.
  • UK: Significantly more Educated Urbanites (E) than average stated that the UK economy was ‘on the way down’, with 58% stating this.
  • UK: Significantly more Affluent Greys (B) and Prudent Pensioners (J) than average stated that the UK economy was ‘struggling’, with 47% from both groups stating this.

Gender

  • Females were significantly more pessimistic about the state of their local economy, with over a half (51%) stating it was ‘on the way down/struggling’, compared with just over two-fifths (44%) of males.

Tenure

  • A significantly higher proportion of private tenants (12%) thought their local economy was really thriving/on the way up, cf. 6% of social tenants
  • A significantly higher proportion of owner occupiers (86%) thought the UK economy as a whole was on the way down/struggling, cf. 74% of social tenants and 82% of private tenants.

Dependents