Supplementary File Evans Et Al. J.R. Soc. Interface

Supplementary file – Evans et al. J.R. Soc. Interface

Supplementary Figure 1.Phoma model construction.a, Relationship between maximum daily temperature over six seasons (Tmax, mean for period 15 July to 26 September) and the date (days after 15 July, harvestdate) when winter oilseed rape crops were observed to have 10% plants with phoma leaf spot (Dlo) for seven sites across the UK (R2 = 0.75). b Relationship between sum of daily rainfall over seven sites across the UK (Rsum, total for period 15 July to 26 September) and date when oilseed rape crops were observed to have 10% plants with phoma leaf spot for six seasons(R2 = 0.46). Details of experiments given in supplementary Table 1.

Supplementary Figure 2. Phoma model construction. Relationship between observed dates (days after 15 July, harvest date) when 10% of winter oilseed rape plants were affected by phoma leaf spot (Dlo) in experiments at seven sites in 1996/97 to 2001/02 growing seasons and dates predicted by a weather-based model (Dlp= 216.5 – 0.24 Rsum– 4.55 Tmax where Rsum = total rainfall and Tmax = mean maximum temperature between 15 July and 26 September, respectively), assessed by linear regression (R2 = 0.63). Details of experiments given in supplementary Table 1.

Supplementary Figure 3. Phoma model validation. Relationship between observed and predicted a, date (days after 15 July, harvest date) when 10% of plants had phoma leaf spot (R2 = 0.54), b, date when 10% of plants had phoma stem canker (R2 = 0.28) and c, stem canker severity score at harvest (R2 = 0.045) for seven sites across the UK in 2002/03 to 2006/07 growing seasons. Details of experiments given in supplementary Table 2.

Supplementary Figure 4. Predicted number of days after harvest in summer (15 July) until the date in autumn when 10% of winter oilseed rape plants are affected with phoma leaf spot (Leptosphaeria maculans) for a, baseline 1960-90, b, 2020LO, c, 2020HI, d, 2050LO and e, 2050HI climates under low and high emission scenarios.

Supplementary Table 1 Details of UK winter oilseed rape cultivars, seasons and field experiment locations that provided disease data on phoma leaf spot and stem canker epidemics to develop a model for predicting the start of phoma leaf spotting in autumn (dataset A), the start of phoma stem canker in spring (dataset B) and the severity of phoma stem canker epidemics at harvest in summer (dataset C).

aDataset A (40 sets), bdataset B (18 sets), cdataset C (32 sets). *In some seasons at some sites, more than one set of data were available for a particular cultivar and the number of datasets used precedes the superscript letter used to denote that dataset.

1Numbers in parentheses indicate cultivar rating for resistance to L. maculans from the HGCA Recommended List for winter oilseed rape for that season (9, very resistant; 1, very susceptible).

Supplementary Table 2 Details of UK winter oilseed rape field experiment locations, cultivars and seasons that provided disease data on phoma leaf spot and stem canker epidemics to validate a model for predicting the onset of phoma leaf spotting in autumn (dataset A) the onset of phoma stem canker in spring (dataset B) and the severity of phoma stem canker epidemics at harvest in summer (dataset C)

aDataset A, bdataset B, cdataset C. *In some seasons at some sites, more than one set of data were available for a particular cultivar and the number of datasets used precedes the superscript letter used to denote that dataset.

1Numbers in parentheses indicate cultivar rating for resistance to L. maculans from the HGCA Recommended List for winter oilseed rape for that season (9, very resistant; 1 very susceptible).

2 Cultivars in 2004/05 season – Apex (5), Aragon (6), Bristol (4), Castille (7), Disco (4), Elan (5), Escort, Expert (7), Fortis (5), Lioness (5), NK Bravour (6), NK Victory (4), Ontario (4), Recital, Royal, Shannon (6) and Winner.

3 Cultivars in 2005/06 season (number in parentheses indicates a change in rating from previous season) - Apex, Bristol, Castille, Disco (5), Elan (4), ES Astrid (8), Escort (5), Expert (6), Fortis, Lioness, NK Bravour (5), NK Victory (5), Ontario (4), Recital (6), Royal, Shannon and Winner.

4 Cultivars in 2006/07 season - Apex, Bristol, Castille, Disco, Elan, ES Astrid, Escort, Expert, Fortis, Lioness, NK Bravour, NK Victory, Ontario, Recital, Royal, Shannon, Winner.