School of Geography 2000/2001
University of Leeds Level 3
Semester 1
Dr Rachael Unsworth
GEOG3360: Urban environments: towards urban sustainability
2. Urbanisation and the environment
Environmental damage is increasing as population rises and pressure continues for improved standard of living. Much about future directions depends on what happens to population growth as a whole and what happens in different parts of the world. This in turn will affect the size of cities and the demand for resources + the ability of the environment to cope. It will also influence how we have to organise ourselves to try to balance economic objectives with environmental protection and overall quality of life – issues of governance. The greater the pressure on urban areas and the resources to which they want access, the greater will be the political tension about who gets access to what (food, water, shelter, work, education, health care, open space), how we configure cities and provide their infrastructure.
BUT: urban areas are an opportunity as well as threat. They account for a large proportion of GNP and people stand more of a chance of making a better living in towns and cities than they do in the countryside + they have better access to many facilities – health, education, leisure.
Worst and best scenarios
This lecture looks at the pace and nature of urbanisation in different parts of the world and the problems that attend these trends. The scale of urban areas, and the pace of growth, are significant factors in determining how sustainable development issues can be, and are being, addressed. Many of these problems relate especially or exclusively to the poor. This is why there will be a special section later on poverty as a sustainability issue.
See National Geographic November 2002 Cities – p72-99
2.1 Urbanisation trends
Definition
Urbanisation = the increase in the number and size of towns and cities + the increase in the proportion of the population which is classed as urban.
Why do settlements grow? Urban populations grow because of natural increase (excess of births over deaths), in-migration, boundary changes and recategorisation of settlements.
Levels of urbanisation
What is the current world population? 6 billion (UN 1998). The last billion was added in 12 years. Now around 6.2 billion.
Do you recall the proportion of the world's population which is classed as urban?
Nearly 50% of the world’s population lives in cities.
World population and % urban 1900?
Population a century ago: 2 billion (National Geographic, October 1999). 10% urban (200 million).
Global urbanization levels over time
1940: 12.5% urban population (and 1% lived in cities of 1 million or more).
It is since WWII that urbanisation in the Third World has really taken off.
By the 1970s, the developing world had a higher number of urban dwellers than the developed world.
By 2000, 1.9 billion people were estimated to live in urban areas of the developing world. This figure could approach 3.5 billion by 2020 (Wyn Williams 1997).
(1.1 billion in urban areas of developed world by 2000)
By 2025, nearly 50% of world urban population will be Asian.
Levels of urbanisation are highest in the developed countries; rates of urbanisation are highest in the developing countries.
Levels: USA 75%, Japan 77%, Northern Europe more urbanised than south; UK 89%
Latin America is the most urbanised of the developing regions.
Africa is the least urbanised, but urbanising fastest.
The 2000 USA census found continued concentration of population growth both within and adjacent to metropolitan areas. The proportion of the nation's population that lives in metropolitan areas (using 1990s definitions) now exceeds 80 percent, and fully 50 percent of the population lives in suburbs. After decades of losing residents, many U.S. cities are regaining population in downtown neighborhoods. So, the age of the mega-city is not over.
Rates of urbanisation
In developing countries, urban populations are growing @ 3.5% a year; developed countries: 1%.
175,000 people are added to the urban populations of developing countries every day (= 64 million pa) (HABITAT 2001). The most rapid growth is in the poorest regions, especially Africa, and those undergoing rapid economic growth. Medium-sized cities are often the ones that are growing most rapidly.
Most rapidly urbanising countries 1990-95 (World Resources 1996):
Africa: Burkina Faso 11.2% (highest in world), Mozambique, Botswana + over 30 other countries with rates >4%.
Central America: Nicaragua, Honduras, Haiti
South America: Paraguay, Bolivia
Asia: Oman, Afghanistan, Nepal, Cambodia, Lao, Bangladesh
China: by 2025, it is expected that 55% of the 1.5 billion population will be urban dwellers.
Some slowing of growth is occurring – from a high of 2.1% a year in the 1960s to 1.5% in 1996. Stabilisation in 31 countries: most developed countries and Latin America (slowing of rural-urban migration, declining fertility). (Flavin C., 1997 p.17). In Asia, growth rates are lower than they were, but increments are still enormous because of the vast base from which the increases take place.
Table 4 of An urbanizing world: most of the 370 cities listed are growing at a lower rate than they were. Only a minority of these have projected growth rates for 2005-2015 higher than the rates for 1995-2005: some Ganges Valley cities including Calcutta, Patna, Varanasi, Agra; some Iranian cities; Rangoon (Myanmar); Addis Ababa (Ethiopia); Mogadishu (Somalia); Durban, East Rand, Johannesburg; Khulna (Bangladesh); Ho Chi Minh (Vietnam).
In some W European countries (Germany, Italy, Denmark, UK) and parts of USA (Detroit, Buffalo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh), there was counter-urbanisation in 1970s-80s, but in most places (apart from former East Germany Spain, Italy and Denmark), this trend has now abated. (See article at end of this file). In several USA cities, the trend is reversing (though not dramatically): 14 cities in the table are expected to have higher growth rates in the early C21 than they had in the last years of the C20.
Growth of US cities 1990-2000 – eg. Sacramento, California
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/feature/2003/1212globalcities.html
The rates of growth of some Asian and African cities imply very brief periods for doubling of population to occur: Bombay 19 years, Lagos 10 years, Karachi 15 years and Dhaka 9 years.
http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/conf/conf46/conf46d1.pdf
World population increased 48% from 1975 to 2000, compared with 64% from 1950 to 1975. If the most optimistic population projections hold true, the world's population could stabilise at around 10 billion; if the high growth scenario is the one which is played out, then it will reach 23 billion before levelling off toward the end of the 22nd century.
Researchers say the world's population could stop growing sooner than expected. They suggest it could peak within the next 70 years, and then decline. BBC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_1469000/1469605.stm
Megacities – population over 10 million
UN-Habitat estimates the world will have 21 megacities in 2015, up from only five in 1975.
http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0211/feature3/
http://www.megacities.uni-koeln.de/documentation/megacity/maps.htm
Many of the cities that are now million or mega-cities have long been important – at the top of the urban hierarchy. But their attractions, combined with an era of demographic transition, have caused them to grow to massive proportions.
Million cities
382 cities of >1 million in 1990; 543 of these cities by 2015 (UN 1995, Table 4).
Satterthwaite 1999 reckons there are 426 cities > 1 million, of which 45 are over 5 million.
1960: >20% lived in urban areas and 6% were in million cities.
1980 – nearly a third of the population were urban dwellers and 10% were million city residents.
Countries with greatest numbers of cities over 1 million people:
China (86), USA (37), India (37), Germany (13), Russian Federation (13), Brazil (14), Pakistan (9), Japan (8), Korea (8), Mexico (8), South Africa (8), Indonesia (6), Ukraine (5) All are highly industrialized and/or densely populated. UNCHS, 2001, Cities in a globalizing world, Earthscan, London
Still, 64% of people in small and medium-sized cities, 21% in large cities and 15% in megacities 1995 (World Dev Report 1999/2000, p128).
There are vast numbers of people now living in enormous cities, compared with the position only half a century ago. NB London is now not even in the top 20.
It is the medium-sized cities that are now growing at the greatest rate – heading to join the ranks of million cities.
We’ve looked at contrasts across the world.
Now going to look at contrasts between cities in developed/developing countries
Then urban/rural areas within poorer countries – arguments about whether it is more or less advantageous to be an urban dweller
Then at the poor themselves within cities
2.2 The implications of urbanisation trends for sustainability – comparing developed and developing country cities
Summary:
Rapid urbanisation in the developing world and economic transformation the world over create a
wide variety of urban environmental, economic and social problems. Working towards urban
sustainable development implies having to tackle these problems in an integrated way. The problems faced by developing countries have elements in common with those facing the developed world, but some are different in nature or scale and the means to tackle them are generally less well developed.
Of the world’s 193 countries, 30 are classed as developed/industrial; 131 are developing and the remaining 32 are in transition.
World Bank groupings: low, lower-middle, upper middle, high income.
Map of country groupings.
http://www.infoplease.com/countries.html
There are broad contrasts between rich and poor countries (Sachs 14.8.99).
Some of these contrasts are related to basic geographical factors.
eg. 42 countries are classed as Highly Indebted Poor Countries.
Over 70% of the people of these HIPCs live in tropical or desert environments.
Colder climates - less infectious life-threatening disease such as cholera and malaria, but more pollution through fuel burning for heating.
How do problems caused by cities compare and contrast in different parts of the world?
Arguably, the most pressing urban problems in the developed world are related to high levels of consumption while those in the cities of the developing world are related to high growth rates.
1. Some problems caused by cities and experienced by urban populations are similar the world over:
· resource use is increasing and so is output of waste and pollution - see last week’s notes
· Pollution and congestion have a direct impact on people’s daily lives.
The need to act on these matters is acknowledged even by those who may be indifferent to or sceptical of matters such as global warming, resource depletion, intra- and intergenerational equity.)
· There is spatial and social variation in access to resources and in the experience of the effects of environmental degradation.
· Unemployment and underemployment are common problems, as are crime, social exclusion.
·
But there are some contrasts between cities of developed and developing countries: the stage, scale, intensity of problems and the potential for dealing with them.
2. Developing countries are at an earlier stage with some urban problems. In some ways this means that problems are less severe; in other ways, it means that urban populations and activities are causing more damage within and beyond city boundaries.
There are certainly lower levels of consumption and waste; however, growth rates are high in less developed countries.
Waste by country grouping: Low income countries 100-220kg of waste per person pa; middle income: 180-330kg; high income: 300-1000kg (An urbanizing world Table 8.2 p271). eg. 15 million computers to landfill in USA every year (T&CP April 99 p133).
There may be lower overall energy consumption in developing country cities, but where vehicle engines are poorly tuned, legislation weak and/or unenforced and the inadequate road network is heavily congested, the pollution which is produced by road traffic is intensely concentrated and damaging (Hardoy et al 1992). CO2 emissions in developing countries are on the increase and the developing world's share of the global total is increasing (ENDS Report 275, p16). Emissions in many other parts of the world are also continuing to grow - USA, Canada, Japan, Australia and the EU (though UK and Germany have bucked the trend).
Where heavy industries are still located in down-town areas of cities and are not subject to stringent controls, workers and residents are exposed to dangers which have largely been eliminated in OECD countries.
The underdeveloped state of water supply and drainage systems leads to higher levels of river and ground water pollution and higher incidence of water-borne diseases. Garbage collection is usually inadequately organised.
3. Some problems are at a larger scale or are more intense in countries that are at an earlier stage of economic development and now going through a period of rapid urbanisation.
· The unplanned form of cities has more adverse impacts the larger a city becomes. Rubbish dumps are amongst dwellings; industrial zones are far from residential areas; road networks are inadequate. Health, access and efficiency are all adversely affected. Cities in the now developed countries were often unplanned in their period of rapid growth. But controls of various kinds generally cut in before they reached the immense proportions of today’s unplanned cities.
Leeds more than tripled in size in the first half of the 19th century, but this meant reaching a total of ‘only’ 180,000 by 1850 (Burt and Grady 1994). Compare this with some of the figures from developing countries:
Examples of city growth – second half of 20th centuryCity / Post-war population / Estimated
population 2000 / How many times
bigger by 2000?
Bangkok, Thailand / 1.4 million / 7.3 million / > 5 times
Bombay (Mumbai), India / 2.9 million / 18.1 million / > 6 times
Karachi, Pakistan / < 0.5 million / 12.0 million / >24 times
Manila, Philippines / 1.5 million / 10.8 million / > 7 times
Mexico City, Mexico / 3.1 million / 16.4 million / > 5 times
Sao Paulo, Brazil / 2.4 million / 17.8 million / > 7 times
(Sources: Fuchs et al 1994; HABITAT 1996; Lari 1996):
Cities which increased in size more than ten-fold between 1950 and 1990 include: Abidjan, Amman, Dar-es-Salaam, Khartoum, Kinshasa, Lagos, Nairobi, Nouakchott, Seoul (Hardoy, Mitlin and Satterthwaite 1992).
· Developing country cities have even higher levels of poverty and unemployment than do cities of the developed countries – overall a quarter of developing country urban dwellers live in poverty. The numbers in poverty mean that it is harder to tackle urban problems. See section 2.5