Russia S Levers in Turkmenistan

Why is Turkmenistan Important?

This gas is a highly valuable commodity that Europe, Asia and Russia need. Turkmenistan is central Asia’s leading natural gas producer, producing about 70 bcm annualy, of which it exports about 50 bcm. At the end of 2008, BP estimated Turkmenistan’s proven gas reserves at about 7.94 trillion cubic meters.
Turkmenistan’s geographic location is also essential to Russian national security and foreign policy— part of which is establishing a buffer with the countries of South Central Asia.

Though Turkmenistan does not border Russia, the geography lacks features that would otherwise provide insulation against Russia
Thebulk of its populationis located in its extreme south, as far from Russia as one can get in the country.

Ashgabat is quite paranoia about its geographic position, especially given thechanging regional dynamics. Russia can exploit those fears by amplifying or diminishing the influence the other regional powers (Uzebekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgystan), or by encroaching itself.

Demography:
About 314,000 ethnic Russians (about 6.5 percent of total population) live in Turkmenistan, the prescence of which Russia can use as a lever, such as calling for recognition of their rights.

Russia probably has influence with the ruling elite, but it really all boils down to natural gas.

Intelligence Services:
Russia is still the dominant force in Central Asia, with a near monopoly of military and intelligence assets in the region far greater than any other external power.
Moscow can sow paranoid in Ashgabat about the risks of opening to the West through foreign intelligence services.
Military:
Moscow could pull back on security support for Ashgabat, which includes weapons sales, and it is rumured that Russian troops are stationed within Turkmenistan’s borders.
Intimidation is also a lever. The Russo-Georgian war proved that Moscow could and would use force. Russia could very easily deploy troops and/or other forces to Turkmenistan to carry out operations or assasinations.

Natural Gas:
Turkmenistan and Russia exchange approximately 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas annually. Natural gas exports generate roughly 50 percent of Turkmenistan’s GDP.
Nearly all of Turkmenistan’s energy supplies have been integrated— along with the rest of Central Asia— into Russia’s Soviet-era pipeline system.
Kremlin has a lot of say in where Turkmen gas supplies go.
Russia has shown that it can potentially refuse to accept Turkmen gas and cause turkemn pipes to malfunction and/or explode.

Natural Gas:
Russia depends on Turkmenistan’s natural gas exports. Turkmenistan supplies natural gas to Russian energy monopoly Gazprom, and Russia leverage those supplies unless it actually has them.
Energy projects that would bypass Russia and that could use Turkmen natural gas, like the Nabucco pipeline, can be used against Russia.
The Tukemnistan-China pipeline (under construction), which would link Turkmen natural gas to the Central Asian infrastructure that could then supply china, can be used as leverage against Russia.
Turkmenistan could lift restrictions on foreign investment in the country, introducing competition and pissing off Russia.
Turkmenistan will not be able to completely fill the orders for Russia, China and Iran once its pipelines are complete. Therefore turkemenistan will have power to pick and choose which country get’s its orders filled, and can use their option against Russia.
Geography:
Since Turkmenistan is so far from Russia’s core, breaking away from Russia and courting the west— be it through security, energy or trade— is a lever against Russia.