Population Issues in China and India

POPULATION ISSUES IN CHINA AND INDIA (10)

OVERVIEW:

China and India are the two most populous countries in the world, but they have taken very different approaches to population control. Students will gather population statistics for these two countries, read about population issues in both places, and determine whether India should adopt a one-child policy like the one implemented by the Chinese government.

OBJECTIVES:

• Discuss why a country might try to limit its birth rate;

• Compare life expectancy and per capita income for China, India and the U.S.

PROCEDURE/EVALUATION:

1. Go to Compare China, India and the U.S. on the following indicators: life expectancy, population size, per capita income (GDP-per capita), birth rate, death rate, literacy rate, and infant mortality. Record the numbers you see. Make a chart that displays the data.

2. What do these numbers reveal about China and India? Support your answer with specific examples from the statistics.

3. What factors contribute to these two country’s birth rates?

4. What is the government’s role in this country’s growth rate?

5. Should India have a one-child policy like China’s? Why or why not? Use specific examples from the research.

6. Hypothesize the economic reasons why people might want to have smaller families. In particular, how might limiting the number of children in a family affect the family’s ability to earn and save money?

7. Can you think of examples of the reverse scenario, in which it would make more financial sense for a family to have more children? Explain.

8.A certainfictional country called Industria is tracking its population data. In 1855, the first year vital statistics were reported for the country, the population was 1.6 million, with a crude birth rate of 43 per 1,000. At that time the population of Industria was growing quite slowly, because of the high death rate of 41 per 1,000. In 1875 the population began to grow very rapidly as the birth rate remained at its 1855 level, while the crude death rate dropped dramatically to 20 per 1,000. Population growth continued to increase in the small country into the late 1800’s, even though birth rate began to decline slowly.

In 1895 the crude birth rate had dropped to 37, and the death rate to 12 per 1,000. In that year (1895) a complete census revealed that the population of Industria had grown to 2.5 million. By 1950 population growth gradually began to decline as the death rate remained at its 1895 level, while the birth rate continued to decline to 22 per 1,000. In 1977 vital statistics revealed that the death rate was 10 per 1,000, and the population growth had slowed even more to an annual rate of 0.4%. By 1990 Industria had reduced its birth rate to that of its now constant, low death rate, and the population transition was complete.

A.Graph: Plot the crude birth rate data from 1855 to 1990. Now plot the crude death rate on the same axes. Clearly label the axes, the curves and the entire graph.

B.What was the annual growth rate of Industria in 1950? What was the birth rate in Industria in 1977? SHOW YOUR WORK AND CALCULATIONS.

C.Indicate TWO factors that might have accounted for the rapid decline in the death rate in Industria between 1855 and 1895. Indicate one specific reason why the birth rate might have been so high in 1855 and was so slow to decrease between 1855 and 1950.

D.Determine what the population size of Industria would have been in 1951 if the population had continued to grow at the annual rate of growth recorded for Industria in 1895. SHOW YOUR WORK AND CALCULATIONS.

E.Describe demographic transition. What are some steps that a country or population would have to make to progress through the transition.

F.Use a graph to show demographic transition. Clearly label your graph. Place the years on your graph to correspond to Industria’s transition.

Doubling Time in Exponential Growth

Purpose:

Investigate the mathematical concept of exponential growth, applying doubling time as a calculation method. Explore the impacts of exponential growth in biological and other processes.

Introduction:

Growing populations of organisms do not follow linear rates of change. One reason populations grow very rapidly is that they have higher birth rates than death rates. Each cycle of reproduction has more offspring than the previous generation. At any point there are more maturing producers than ever before and the increase in the base population accelerates. Mathematically, such growth is called exponential. It is the same type of rate as describes compounding interest in a bank account. While the rate is fixed and may be a small percentage, it is continually applied to a growing base, so that the total expands by a greater and greater amount per unit time. The time in which a population or money amount doubles is a good benchmark by which to grasp and foresee the impact of exponential growth over time. Even the smallest rate of steady growth leads eventually to doubling and redoubling. While exponential growth in one’s investments is welcome, when applied to populations, especially human populations, it can have grave implications. Many people do not have a good grasp of exponential rates. The following two exercises will illustrate the powerful effects of exponential growth when it is modeled as a process of doubling, or repeatedly multiplying by two. Materials: Internet access.

Problems and Questions: Problem A: A math major is home from a vacation break and takes a job for twenty five days. In negotiating for a salary, she tells her employer that instead of a wage on $20/hr, she would accept one that pays one penny for the first day, then doubles to two cents the next day, four cents the third day, and so on for the month. The employer thinks this is a good deal for him and agrees. She works eight hours a day for the 25 days.

Show your work, including intermediate calculations:

1. Is this a good deal for the boss? If so, under what conditions?
2. How is this a good deal for the math major?
3. When does the student breakeven-that is, on what day has she made as much as she would have earning $20 per hour?
4. What is the total differential in the two payment methods over the 25-day period?
5. Define exponential growth. Explain why it is so powerful.
6. Describe an example of exponential growth in another field, such as science.
7. Explain what factors might put limits on this type of mathematical increase.

Problem B: This puzzle illustrates the concept of exponential growth using bacteria. Bacteria multiply by division. One bacterium becomes two. Then two divide into four, the four divide into eight, and so on. For a certain strain of bacteria, the time for this division process is one minute. If you put one bacterium in a bottle at 11:00 PM, by midnight the entire bottle will be full.

1. When would the bottle be half-full? How do you know?
2. Suppose you could be a bacterium in this bottle. At what time would you first realize that you were running out of space?
3. Suppose that at 11:58 some bacteria realize that they are running out of space in the bottle. So they launch a search for new bottles. They look far and wide. Finally, offshore in the Arctic Ocean, they find three new empty bottles. Great sighs of relief come from all the bacteria. This is three times the number of bottles they’ve known. Surely, they think their space problems are over. Is that so? Explain why the bacteria are still in trouble. Since their space resources have quadrupled, how long can their growth continue?
4. Does what you have learned about bacteria suggest something about human population growth?