Mediterranean and Middle East

GSM/CDSDG

249 JOINT 14 E

Original: English

NATO Parliamentary Assembly

MEDITERRANEAN AND MIDDLE EAST

SPECIAL GROUP

SUB-COMMITTEE ON

DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE

SEMINAR REPORT

Catania, ITALY

2 – 4 november 2014

This Seminar Report is presented for information only and does not necessarily represent the official view of the Assembly. This report was prepared by Andrius Avizius, Director of the Committee on the Civil Dimension of Security and by Paul Cook, Director of the Mediterranean and Middle East Special Group.

TABLE OF CONTENT

I.INTRODUCTION

II.An Overview of the Regional Crisis

III.The challenge posed by ISIS and other violent jihadist groups

IV.The Refugee Crisis

V.The Situation in Libya

VI.The Israeli-Palestinian conflict

VII.Conclusion

249 JOINT 14 E

I.INTRODUCTION

1. The NATO PA’s annual GSM seminar in Italy, held in conjunction with the Assembly’s SubCommittee on Democratic Governance and dedicated to assessing the security situation in Europe’s southern neighbourhood, took place on 2-4 October 2014 in Catania, Italy. The seminar engaged NATO member, partner, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) legislators as well as a range of observers and members of the press. The seminar focused on several of the most compelling security challenges the region currently confronts, including the conflict in Syria and Iraq, the threat posed by foreign fighters participating in those conflicts, the refugee crisis and its implications for the immediate neighbourhood and the broader Mediterranean, the consequences of the recent war in Gaza and ongoing instability in Libya. The role Italy has played in coping with the growing refugee crisis in the Mediterranean, including its humanitarian naval operation, Mare Nostrum, constituted another central theme for the deliberations.

II.An Overview of the Regional Crisis

1. Italy’s foreign minister and future EU High Representative, Federica Mogherini, focused her remarks on the challenges that the trans-Atlantic Community is facing in light of the instability sweeping across parts of North Africa and the Middle East. The Euro-Atlantic community is hard pressed to address an array of security challenges in the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and Eastern Europe simultaneously, she said. The MENA region has been detached from global trends for decades and seemed predictable in its lack of developments. However, global dynamics have eventually caught up with the region, revealing its apparent stability asunsustainable. The notion of borders has changed and the increase in the numbers of refugees and migrants has reached an alarming rate in recent months and years. “We live in a global Mediterranean”, the minister said.

1. Foreign Minister Mogherini also took up the theme of possible Western contributions to stabilising the region. She noted that it was wise for NATO not to assume the role of leading actor in the region, given existing regional sensitivities. However, individual NATO member states, especially Turkey as a Muslim country, have a significant role to play in the stabilisation of the region. It was important to send a message that conflicts in the Middle East are not a clash of civilisations, Minister Mogherini pointed out.

1. She also noted that one cannot ignore the importance of regional powers, such as Russia and Iran, and one should try to find areas where it would be possible to work together with these countries in order to stabilise the region. Russia may no longer be a strategic partner for the EuroAtlantic community, the Minister said, but it remains a strategic country. She also noted that it is in the interest of all to see Iran playing a constructive role in dealing with the challenge of the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS); progress in the negotiations with Iran on the nuclear issue would create positive momentum in this regard.

1. She suggested that the EU should be a “player, not just a payer” in the Middle East and North Africa. In particular, Europe could contribute more to the development of legitimate and robust institutions in the region, she said. Without such institutions, assistance to these countries would be akin to “emptying the sea with a spoon”.

1. She also urged Western countries and institutions to re-think the organisational structure of the bodies responsible for relations with African and Middle East countries. There is still a lack of understanding that the developments and conflicts in this broader region are interlinked and that they have to be approached in a holistic manner, Minister Mogherini argued.

1. Aram Mohammed AIi, Deputy Speaker of the Council of Representatives of Iraq, echoed this view, suggesting that both Europe and North America have a role to play in regional transformation. He noted however that ultimately change must be internally driven. He contended that Western countries need to face their responsibilities by increasing support for the fight against terrorists groups across the region.

1. The Speaker of the Italian Senate Pietro Grasso underlined the insecurity that obsolete regimes clinging to power have precipitated and noted that this has driven these societies to the edge of revolution. It was premature, he noted, to characterise this revolutionary impulse as an Arab Spring. Indeed, the region is heading in a much more worrying direction. Poverty is rising, terrorist movements are capitalising on instability and repression continues to increase. He warned that the damage has not been limited to the region. Europe and the West more generally are now dealing with the consequences, not the least of which is the massive movement of people across borders, including the Mediterranean. Senator Grasso cited the French historian Braudel in noting that lasting stability will require broad acceptance of the region’s diversity, which is, paradoxically, held together by a common destiny, cultural and economic cross-fertilization and shared histories.

1. In his remarks Dr Fawaz A. Gerges, Professor at the London School of Economics, noted that the old social fabric in MENA has been dismantled and that the region’s post-colonial governance systems have simply failed in institutional, economic, and political terms. In the absence of credible and functioning state institutions, ethnic, tribal and sectarian cleavages have reappeared and are engendering serious instability and conflict.

1. Dr Gerges predicted that the upcoming period of at least 5-10 years in the MENA region will be marked with instability, terrorism and violence, because the old post-colonial system is resisting and a new one has yet to emerge. The region is “ill” and its “immune system” is weak and, as a result,it suffers from diseases like ISIS, Dr Gerges argued. However, to “cure” the region, one must identify the real causes of the “illness”. He stressed that it would be a mistake to blame all the problems on sectarian or ethnic heterogeneity of the region. Sectarianism is but a symptom and a way for many people to express their frustration over much deeper problems such as poverty (40-45% of Arabs arenear or below poverty level), income gaps, food insecurity, lack of opportunities and distrust in state institutions. Focusing on symptoms such as sectarianism produces thewrong type of remedies – such as imposing a Lebanese model of political system on Iraq. Dr Gerges concluded by emphasising the importance of governance as the key to stabilising the region.

III.The challenge posed by ISIS and other violent jihadist groups

1. The security challenge posed by ISIS constituted another core theme of the deliberations in Catania. According to Italy’s Undersecretary of State in charge of National Security, MarcoMinniti, ISIS is now conducting both symmetrical warfare (occupying and governing territories) and asymmetrical (terrorist executions). It has skilfully exploited social media to diffuse its propaganda and recruit new fighters from across the world.

1. According to Mr Minniti, the proper response to the threat posed by ISIS (and violent jihadism in general) must be three-fold. First, it involves direct targeting of terrorist groups, employing, when necessary, military means. The anti-ISIS coalition must be as broad as possible and should include Arab states. Second, law enforcement agencies must become more efficient. The exchange of information among law enforcement and particularly intelligence agencies is of key importance. Mr Minniti argued that trust and co-operation among Euro-Atlantic partners has improved and the negative consequences of Edward Snowden’s revelations have been resolved. Finally, it is necessary to step up assistance to the region in terms of institution-building, development and long-term political reconciliation.

1. Riccardo Redaelli, a professor at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan, noted that radical jihadist groups, although they present different agendas and modus operandi, are linked by the common desire to re-Islamise society, using violence if necessary. The tactics and characteristics of the new jihadist movements seem to have deeply changed compared to Bin Laden’s Al Qaeda. They have been adapted to new theatres of operation in order to become “glocal” (simultaneously global and local), in an effort to carve out “Islamic emirates” or even “Caliphates” within MENA states, especially in Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

1. The speaker suggested that ISIS is marketing a premium brand of violent jihadism. Its leader, the self-proclaimed khalifa al-Baghdadi, has shown a remarkable capacity to learn from his predecessors’ mistakes, adopting at the same time a very successful policy of brand publicity. Critical for the success of the movement has also been the adoption of an extremely flexible and effective military, diplomatic and media strategy. But the corollary of this strategy is the use of terror and brutal instillation of horror in the hearts of its enemies through the adoption of cruel methods that are broadcastto the wider public through effective media strategies.

1. Notwithstanding its success and victories, there are clearly some weak points within the strategy of ISIS. In the beginning ISIS could grow thanks to the anti-Shi’a and anti-Iranian obsessions in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. Both the Saudi and the Qatari governments have poured lots of money into the Syrian opposition and it is possible that some of that money ended up in the hands of ISIS. However, the violence and brutality are washing away any form of direct political protection by regional states. Another weakness is represented by the need to defend its self-proclaimed ‘Caliphate’. Having benefited so greatly from exploiting mobility, ISIS finds it a challenge to defend fixed terrain.

1. Professor Radaelli argued that ISIS may struggle to hold terrain if it is attacked simultaneously from multiple points. However, he also stressed that coalition efforts to strike ISIS positions will not, in themselves, eradicate the threat. A broad international effort is needed to cut off its financial lifeblood, including oil revenues, and to ramp up de-radicalisation programmes to stop the influx of fighters to the ranks of ISIS.

1. With regard to the potential role of Iran in the efforts to contain ISIS, the Middle East expert Barak Seener had a different view from several other speakers and argued against the engagement with Iran. He suggested that the Euro-Atlantic community should not sacrifice its values for the sake of perceived security.

1. A specific issue discussed in the context of armed conflicts in the Middle East was that of foreign fighters among the ranks of ISIS and other violent extremist organisations. LorenzoVidino, from the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, and Claudio Neri, from the Italian Institute for Strategic Studies "Niccolò Machiavelli", informed the delegates that in the three years of the Syrian conflict, about 12,000 foreign fighters went to Syria to fight on the side of the rebels. In addition, at least 3,000-4,000 have rushed to help the Assad regime, mostly from Iran, Iraq and Lebanon. Of the 12,000 foreign fighters among the ranks of the rebels, between 2,500-3,000 come from Western countries (the actual number might be higher as governments cannot always trace the movement of their citizens abroad). The majority, however, comes from four Arab countries, namely Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Morocco. These people are usually very young and a significant amount of them are women (about 10%, mostly performing non-combatant duties). Many of these fighters do not have previous military experience or training. The military contribution of foreign fighters is nevertheless considered significant by violent jihadist groups, not least because of their willingness to commit suicide attacks.

1. Worryingly, many fighters coming from the West are second-generation residents and are not part of traditional Islamist networks. It was noted that these people can be radicalised very quickly. There is also a high number of Islamic converts. The motivations of fighters coming from the West can vary greatly: from frustration over the international community’s inaction in Syria to youthful adventurism. Another suspected factor is the consequences of excessive video-gaming. Speakers concluded by stating that, in addition to the necessary military, intelligence and law enforcement measures, it is important to tackle the extremist narrative and ideology through proper strategic communication.

IV.The Refugee Crisis

1. The seminar dedicated a great deal of time to the Syrian refugee crisis that, according to a recent NATO PA report, constitutes one of the most devastating refugee crises in recent decades. Roland Schilling, UNHCR Deputy Regional Representative in Rome told participants that 3million Syrians have now fled the country, mostly to neighbouring countries Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, while another 6.5 million have been internally displaced within Syria. He warned that the exponential increase of Syrians fleeing their homes is overstretching existing emergency aid budgets and exhausting the capacity and resources of humanitarian agencies, like UNHCR. He called for more international support and real burden-sharing as essential steps in addressing this dire humanitarian challenge.

1. Filippo Bubbico, Deputy Minister of Interior, described the refugee challenge that Italy is facing. Prior to 2013, most migrants seeking to enter Italy were from Tunisia; since then, Syrians and Eritreans are the largest two groups. The surge of asylum seekers in Europe is testing the basic mechanisms for controlling Europe’s borders and managing asylum applications. The situation seems increasingly out of control, with criminal networks running sea crossings. Their callous disregard for human life has raised the mortality rates at sea and has made this crisis an ongoing humanitarian tragedy.

1. Italy’s Mare Nostrum operation has sought to minimise that tragedy and has become a model of how to administer a military humanitarian operation at sea. The operation began after the tragic death of hundreds of migrants off the shore of the Italian island of Lampedusa. It is generally agreed that it has saved hundreds of lives and resulted in the apprehension of roughly 600 traffickers. Italy has also sought to improve and standardise procedures in reception centres. A number of Italian guest speakers, including the speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, LauraBoldrini, stressed that Europe, as a whole, needs to do more to share this burden;help is required to assist in sea rescues and to share in hosting asylum seekers. Italy is very exposed and its leaders sometimes feel that the country is alone in dealing with a massive, socially explosive and costly challenge. Several Italian members noted that the Dublin Regulation currently in operation throughoutthe European Union, whereby asylum requests are dealt with in the country of arrival, puts substantial pressure on EU member states in border areas. They stressed that this regulation seem increasingly outdated and insufficient with regard to the current crisis. A solution is needed to distribute the burden more equitably and to rationalise and harmonise procedures that govern asylum policies.

1. Admiral Giuseppe De Giorgi, Chief of Staff of the Italian Navy, described the Mare NostrumOperation in greater detail. He noted that a number of factors are driving the mass movement of people across the Mediterranean. These include: climate and demographic change, war, failed states, religious clashes, the relative weakness of international organizations and even media influences. The Mare Nostrum operation has sought to cope with some of the humanitarian consequences of this irregular migration and particularly the dangers faced by the migrants themselves. He noted that throughout the operation, 900 Italian sailors have been at sea each day. A complex interagency coordination effort has been undertaken in Rome so that all relevant components of the Italian state, including the Ministry of Justice, are engaged. Indeed, the operation involves an important counter-human trafficking component, and therefore it is also engaged in evidence acquisition, ship inspections, customs compliance and anti-smuggling actions.

1. Mare Nostrum has essentially acted as a searchlight passing over a vast sea, across which thousands of people are travelling in search of a better life.