3,257 Posts
Since Habeeb mentioned GBPJPY can be quite a meanie, I wanted to show the last two trades I took on it. Turns out the first one was an excellent (perhaps A?) trade, but I closed it early and the second one happened today and once again I wussed out too soon.
There is a very, very important lesson here: LET YOUR PROFITS RUN. :S
Can't emphasize this enough for these cross-pairs...
Trail a stop under the daily and let that catch it for example...
A good place for a stop once it passed my 0.0 fib line would have been just below that TBH that price formed there at 228.98, I can see that now in hindsight...but we're always smarter then
The trick is that these Yen crosses basically really only know one direction as long as the BOJ rates are low and steady, and that is up.
So taking trades on these pairs after getting bullish pins or IB breaks seems to be the way to go. Shorting seems fatal in almost all cases.
habeeb
Novice / #1587 / Member Since Aug 2005
768 Posts
Thought I'd throw a chart to start the day off. Pin on Nasdaq100. Not at an extreme high, but off the trendline of the recent uptrend.
Member Since Aug 2005
habeeb #1588
768 Posts
Huge BeOB on cable. Might see the Daily Pivot tested. Looks like we're going to have one of those crazy weeks.
habeeb
Novice / #1600 / Member Since Aug 2005
768 Posts
Originally Posted bygoodthings
Habeeb I see the daily weekly and monthly pivots on your charts Do they come into play similar to the fibs? A while back I looked at the day pivots how the gbpusd responded to them over a 3 or 4 month time and I never picked up any significance. What's your experience?
Pivot Points are like S/R points. For some reason, price is attracted to these points. Probably because the big boys use them, or probably because it's the most used system out there.
The way I understand it, if price opens above the pivot point, you look to buy, and if price closes below, you look to sell. But I've noticed that price usually tests the pivot first before taking off ... well, not always.
Maybe someone that uses a Pivot based system can shed some more light on this.
bundyraider
'Try-hard' extraordinaire... / Member Since Feb 2006
2,169 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted byhabeeb
Pivot Points are like S/R points. For some reason, price is attracted to these points. Probably because the big boys use them, or probably because it's the most used system out there.
The way I understand it, if price opens above the pivot point, you look to buy, and if price closes below, you look to sell. But I've noticed that price usually tests the pivot first before taking off ... well, not always.
Maybe someone that uses a Pivot based system can shed some more light on this.
The safest way to trade pivots seems to be retests.
GoodThings,
At the bottom of this post is a chart, showing the power of these pivot levels. This is for yesterdays price action on Cable and is based on the pivot been calculated at 22:00GMT.
Some days pivots just won't work like this, but NO WAY is the below price action just a fluke. It follows the levels and reacts almost to the letter.
LOOKING AT THE CHART:
Beginning of the day --- After a slow drifting Asian sesion that had seen Cable fail to break up through the main Pivot we come to...
Point "1" --- where the Euro and London sessions kick off.
There is a Bullish Outside Candle that, for the fist time that day, ignores the pivot level and begins a possible bullish move. This is followed by a large Bull Candle.
It would have been nice if we'd had a return to the pivot for a safer entry, but in this case it just didn't happen. Things happened relatively quick. If I was watching at the time I'd have bought at the close of that large bull candle, just from experience in knowing it was a good solid move.
Moving on though...
Point "2" --- would be a good take profit level.
The strength of pivots and there ability to act as decisive reversal levels makes them a perfect spot to take some profit off of the table. The Solid Lines in my chart are the classic pivot levels calculated from pivot formulas. The dotted lines are mid-levels (often named M1-M2-M3-M4. ...but beyond the scope of what I'm showing you here.)
-- Notice how the preceding candle peaked through, but closed at the pivot, indicating sellers got on board thinking there would be a reversal (or "pivot" of price) here. We have our retracement to the pivot, which is respected, showing possible support for a continued move up. The next bar failed to break the previous high and as a consequence we got ourselves a Double Bar High waiting to be broken. ....A long tradeadditioncould be taken at the break of this DBH (as a bonus. And the break came quickly too!) ...The next profit target being....
Point "3" --- Where we take some more profit again and we keep an eye on the price action to decide our next move.
A few bars after point "3" there is a swing low "pin" bar (or hammer) that co-incides with a mid-level. When I've traded moves like this I have trailed my stops against support areas like that . A few pips below the pin would have been good (Once price had moved up away from the pin again) The pair has already moved through two pivot levels, I already consider that a good move. Anything else is a bonus. Another tactic is to trail just behind the previous pivot level (previous solid line). ...that would have kept us in the trade for this day.
I'd be out at the break below this point , though.
Point "4" --- I've marked point 4 to illustrate another good entry oppurtunity as described by Habeeb. ...Waiting for a retrace to the pivot before entering. I've learnt to get in later at a worse price and play the break of the peak rather than risk the return being an actual reversal. ...For now . Still learning. I wouldn't have been awake to take that trade and it's the wrong time of day anyway.
Don't trade like this. I only know a handful of setups so far myself that I trade. You have to study them for a long time. There's a lot of the "Language" or technique to learn before attempting this. I intend to get a better understanding over time, but I'd rather continue on with larger time frame charts and techniques (Playing daaily pins etc), and using pivots mainly for fine tuning profit points etc.
Hope this helps...
, Bundy
bundyraider
'Try-hard' extraordinaire... / Member Since Feb 2006
2,169 Posts
Originally Posted bygnspdr33
great job on how pivot points apply, but i couldn't help but notice you seem to have an indicator for metatrader to plot your pivot points. i am able to do so on v-trader but not metatrader. do you mind sharing.
Pivot Indicatoras per above post.
Make sure you grab the version that's a few posts into the thread (V1-41)
And, if you can, direct any questions regarding the indicator to that particular thread or PM me.
bundyraider
'Try-hard' extraordinaire... / #1632 / Member Since Feb 2006
2,169 Posts
As MoneyBags pointed out, there is a Pin on the daily chart for GBP/JPY.
Here's the chart with a few of my observations...
The pair's been happy to make the 61.8 Fib expansion (of the yellow A-B-C move) and the daily pin looks to set us up for a short trade.
The dark green dotted line is the 38.2% ret. level of the Pin bar itself and the pair seems to be finding resistance at this moment in that exact area.
First target I'll be looking for here is the purple line. A confluence of the 38.2% fib and resistance come support from a previous peak.
EDIT:By the way, there is MACD divergance on the 4 hour.
bundyraider
'Try-hard' extraordinaire... / Member Since Feb 2006
2,169 Posts
GBP/JPY 15 Min chart.
We've topped out at the same level 3 times now.... a confluence of the daily pivot and the 38.2% retracement area. I've entered on the close of that marked pin. 1 Lot for now.
I'll see how the 1 hour and 4 hour charts look later on before adding my second lot.
mike w
Member / #1691 / Member Since Jul 2006
4,088 Posts
Hi there, quick question and i figured you guys would know best about this. Should a pin bar that is created because of a news rally be considered void? Because if so there is one on the GBP/USD.
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd / Member Since Aug 2006
5,653 Posts
Hey, a pin bar is a pin bar. Its where it is and what time of day that makes it more important to me. I personally dont take new trades around this time of day because everything thins out or just trickles real slow. I want some *umph* behind my trades lol
bundyraider
'Try-hard' extraordinaire... / #1710 / Member Since Feb 2006
2,169 Posts
We have a Triple Bar High with a lower close on the 1 hour.
Edit: With a little bit of creative license, this was at the 50% retracement.
Waiting for a retracement to enter. (Somewhere aroundPurplehorizontal line)
...This might mean missing the trade. ...But you miss any chance of a loss too, so who cares. LOL
Maybe on this time frame and so few pips risked you'd just enter on the close??
,Bundy
Edit:All those equal highs give as a strong tight stop we can use. A few pips above (plus spread)
bundyraider
'Try-hard' extraordinaire... / Member Since Feb 2006
2,169 Posts
We hit the entry price at 1.6027 (Purple Line)
Stop was @ 1.6041.
...Stop looks like it's not very close, but that's just the time frame we're on.
First profit target I've set up as 1.6007. Only a 23% line.
The rest will depend on price action.
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd / #1714 / Member Since Aug 2006
5,653 Posts
Originally Posted bymanya42
Hello Everyone.
Can somebody tell how to get those pivots lines on the chart?
Thanks In advance & HAPPY HOLIDAYS to everybody in this wonderful thread .
james16
THANK YOU MERLIN / #1729 / Member Since Feb 2005
2,608 Posts
divergence is a great tool. one of the best in my opinion. the problem is you dont know when price will comply. use support and resistance and/or price action to help you determine when and where price may finally go along with what the divergence is telling you. this like anything else can really help you WHEN you have practiced it enough to feel comfortable pulling the trigger. many wealthy commodity traders dollar cost average when they see strong divergence on long term charts knowing that sooner or later price will follow. i dont suggest that but using s/r and price action can really help determine when to get in.
bundyraider
'Try-hard' extraordinaire... / Member Since Feb 2006
2,169 Posts
Check the chart out below.
If we are using the standard MACD settings (12,26,9) we are finding theMovingAverageConverganceDivergance between a12period EMA (light blue line on price chart) and a26period EMA (orange line). MACD is just making it easier to see the difference between those EMAs (the9setting is a moving average of the that difference).
What am I getting at?
(example using uptrend divergence)
MACD Divergance tells us that the shorter period price action (12 EMA) isn't moving away from the longer period price action (26 EMA) as quickly as it did during the LAST peak. Which is significant isn't it?
So whats that got to do with the price of eggs in china?
To find that exact same divergence on the Daily chart that you did in the 4 hour chart you would have to devide those MACD EMAs by 6 (6 x 4 =24 , of course)
On that Daily chart try MACD (2,4,3) ...the 3 is just a faster setting to suit the smaller EMAs , it's irrelevant to what I'm showing.:
When looking for divergence on your different time frames you aren't supposed to be looking for the same information. You should be trying to find what's happening in the larger picture for instance.
Weekly GBPCHF
WELL WELL, look at this ...We have divergence forming on the weekly chart!
Couldn't have found a better example there GT. You've made it easy choosing this pair.
habeeb
Novice / #1743 / Member Since Aug 2005
768 Posts
4hr Pins on all the majors. Looks like we've got ourselves a double bottom on cable.
habeeb
Novice / #1799 / Member Since Aug 2005
768 Posts
I thought I'd start 2007off with a Pin Bar.:
4hr Pin on fiber, followed by an inside bar. I entered on the 1hr chart after the DBHLC formed. Target is the closing of the gap around the Monthly Pivot area.
Here's the 1hr chart.
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd / #1890 / Member Since Aug 2006
5,658 Posts
heres the usd/jpy 1 hour
waiting for a break
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd / #1908 / Member Since Aug 2006
5,658 Posts
Originally Posted byvlazaf
Short taken off the pb 61.8 retrace.
Entry is not a problem, maximising profits is.
T1 is 1st scale out.
Anyone advise where the next level should be please?
Hey great entry. TP is one of those things you have to decide on what works for you best. Some like to TP all at once, others at different levels. On your chart I may have made T1 where price is sitting now, you can tell we have support there. T2 could be where your T1 is. Again, determing TP is a personal thing, and is the hardest part of forex imo.
I know this wasn't the best answer, but I don't think there is a concrete one.
Michael
edit* here is what i mean. You can see I have awesome MSpaint skills! This is just based on this chart you posted. Seeing the bigger picture may change things.
Panjan #1922
I'm learning this price action and hope someone can help me to confirm
this chart.
Is this the Pin Bar?
If it is, where shall place my order?
Resident Elmer Fudd / Member Since Aug 2006
5,658 Posts
that would be a neutral bar(shows indecision)
Gateway
I have read the thread thru once and parts 3 times. But could not figure out why that is different then a pin bar. I appreciate the answer.
mbqb11Resident Elmer Fudd
The difference is where the open and close are located. For that example we would want the open towards the top of the bar and the close above the open towards the top of the bar. Instead the open and close are nearly identical and in the middle of the bar. If we think about it in just very basic terms it was a fight of buyers and sellers and neither one so we ended up with a draw in the middle.
Ok think about a neutral bar simply as the opening and closing both ending up in the middle or near middle of the bar. The most obvious is when the open and close are identical in the middle giving us what looks like a + sign. An ideal pin bar has its open and close within the previous bar and is located at a swing high or low. The close should always be lower then the open(if looking for a short, opposite for a long) and both should be located near the bottom part of the bar.
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd / #2314 / Member Since Aug 2006
5,661 Posts
Here was a nice quick one for 120+
jotty
Member / Member Since Jan 2006
208 Posts
nice trade, but i'll take a break of the double bottom instead of the pin
much safer unless you feel like babysitting the trade
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd / Member Since Aug 2006
5,661 Posts
I don't babysit any of my trades on the 4hr charts and even the 1 hour charts. THere are a few who trade with me outside of the charts and they know this. If you babysit your trades too much emotion comes into play. Remove the emotion was what has allowed me to make pips!
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd / Member Since Aug 2006
5,661 Posts
well support held and was a good exit for the short, now we have 4 hr pin I am in on the break.
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd / #2336 / Member Since Aug 2006
5,661 Posts
Also here is another trade I made closed my full position now though.
Aud/USD TBL(Three Bar Low)
raczekfx
Commercial Member / #2365 / Member Since Oct 2005
2,196 Posts
Pin break overnight and retesting low of the first eye was a nice long signal.
SeekingLight
Charts + PA > * / Member Since Jul 2006
3,257 Posts
Originally Posted byraczekfx
Pin break overnight and retesting low of the first eye was a nice long signal.
Hi Raczekfx, always nice to see your posts
Speaking of the devil, ey?
Please don't forget that there's two conflicting setups - the BEOB and the PB.
You could also view the pin break as a move back to get sellers for the BEOB. Please be careful...I've conflicting setups for my wavecount as well, but not that I'm any good at that... :/
Like I posted above, if the s/r zones and retrace areas go this could well continue on down....EJ made a 1H bearish Pin altho that's a lower TF....
Just saying that GJ alone would already have moved out 80 from the .618 entry, so never hurts to secure the position
Waiting to see since both EURUSD and GBPUSD also made bullish 4h candles, even though USDCHF did not. (IB there)
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd / #2384 / Member Since Aug 2006
5,662 Posts
thought I would post my gbp/usd trade.
This 1 hr pin then formed a 4hr pin. Taking profit from the 1 hour or you can hold with the 4 hr.
imbiber
Member / #2444 / Member Since Jun 2006
418 Posts
Originally Posted byparlenk
Hi all,
I took a long on us-jy based on this chart.
Will history repeat itself?
james16
THANK YOU MERLIN / #2474 / Member Since Feb 2005
2,608 Posts
Price action analysis is not a system its a method to determine near term price movement. if you practice and get good at identifying the very best set ups you certainly can trade with nothing else but combining them with simple support and resistance and other tools can help refine entries. i challenge all of you to open a demo account just for trading good price set ups blindly. if you can get to where you can build an account with nothing on your chart but price with no other supporting tools what do you think will happen when you do add them. its about refining and targeting the best possible entry. if you can get good at it with nothing but price on your chart the rest is easy.
Originally Posted bysp123
Hi James, on 07-28-05, 1:34pm, you said:
price action in and of itself is a great tool and yes a lot of times they work in and of themselves. but what we really want is multiple signs of a probable winning trade. price action combined with fib ret, monthly and weekly pivot levels, divergence, confluence etc. i will be dissapointed if and when someone goes hey that dblhc did not work and they did not combine other tools to confirm. jim
on 08-12-05, 4:51pm, you said:
YOU DO NOT NEED ANYTHING BUT A KNOWLEDGE OF PRICE ACTION TO BE A SUCCESFUL TRADER. this is something i am going to present in the course (someday), intelligently add in extra ingredients, like your own proven trading system and you have a real shot at success. stay tuned. jim
Can you please explain this seeming contradiction.
Thanx, sp123
______
SeekingLight #2481 / Member Since Jul 2006
3,257 Posts
This chart pretty much shows the ambiguity of the market and the same state I am in currently.
We were rising so nicely in a price channel, fell out of it, tried to scramble and recover, then got the usual "bounce from the former s now turned r channel bottom" which in this case ALSO coincided with a descending trendline.
Until either the PB lows or the monthly high / descending TL is broken, I have pretty much no clue about what's going to happen next...any takers?
EJ and GJ are as contradictory, too, GJ hit a TL and is pausing, EJ is at the pin bar eye level but ALSO on a lower timeframe (4h) made a BEOB and seems to be heavy as well...
Who ken thar yen?
(My best guess is even tho monthly is still pointing up, weekly has gone sideways and we made a high above 121.55 we couldn't sustain. We may have just swung back up to get some decent sellers and if the buyers get fed up enough and the sellers persist, then we should get a dip back to the sub 120s...no?)
rsq955
Member / Member Since May 2006
146 Posts
I know that this is not much help, but I think that I'm going to stick with my old fall back position of...... staying out. I'm going to wait and see....
CFII
Member / #2585 / Member Since May 2006
50 Posts
Does it matter if a bullish pin bar has a lower close than its open price or vice versa?
islandtrader
Member / Member Since Apr 2006
275 Posts
In my short experience it doesn't matter, but I like it when the open and close of the PIN are close together and in the upper/lower third of the bar.
Both PINs on this chart have a lower close, and worked well.
mbqb11
Resident Elmer Fudd / #2602
monthly has broken anyone else coming on for the ride
59fender