Global Shifts: Climate Change
Global shifts: Climate Change
This information sheet offers some general information in relation to climate change and its impacts on how we will live in the future.
Global
In 1994 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change[1]came into force and has been ratified by 197 countries (including Australia). The objective of the Convention is to stabilise the amount of greenhouse gases arising from human activity in the atmosphere to levels that would not interfere with the climate system. The most recent elaboration of the Convention is the Paris Agreement, achieved in 2015 and will come into force on 4 November 2016 now that 81 of the 197 countries have ratified it.[2]
Greenhouse gases are made up of carbon dioxide (majority) methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases and are predominantly generated through the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and the rotting of organic materials. The way in which many human activities such as generation of energy, transportation,industry, land use and waste disposal are currently conducted release these gases to the atmosphere.
The Paris Agreement’s aim is to keep global temperature rise this century to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and ideally, below 1.5°C. This will require change to financial flows, new technology and enhanced national capacity building.These targets are ambitious and will require a significant increase in national efforts.
This agreement means:
- Greater efforts will be made around the world to transform national economies and societies toreduce greenhouse gas emissions. Cities and businesses will be expected to keep up with this change to remain competitive.
- A certain amount of climate change will happen despite all of these efforts and countries, cities and communities will have to adapt to the consequences.
What does climate change look like for Greater Geelong?
CSIRO in 2015 published its projections for climate change in the southern parts of Victoria and Tasmania[3]. It is predicting:
- Higher sea levels of between 0.07-0.19m by 2030 and between 0.27-0.89m by 2090
- Higher mean temperatures of between 0.4-1.1°C by 2030 and between 1.1-4.0°C by 2090
- Double the number of days above 35°C by 2090
- A harsher fire-weather climate but cannot predict the magnitude
- Decreased winter and spring rainfall but more frequent storms
- Increased evaporation rates and reduced soil moisture and run-off.
The CSIRO report describes the change to Melbourne’s climate against various global emission scenarios. If the Paris Agreement is achieved (1.5°C) Melbourne’s climate will be more like the current climate in Wangaratta in north-east Victoria (warmer with same rainfall) or Clare in South Australia (warmer and drier). If global warming rises to 1.5-3.0°C, it will be more like Cowra in NSW (hotter with same rainfall). It can be assumed that similar circumstances will apply to Greater Geelong.
The City of Greater Geelong has strategies to reduce emissions and adapt to a changing climate.Follow the links below for further reading on local action.
- ClimateWorks Australia, Low Carbon Growth Plan for Greater Geelong 2015 Update
- City of Greater Geelong, Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, 2011
Greater Geelong could consider
- transforming its business to keep pace with international market expectations in light of the Paris Agreement and with expected changes to the local climate
- keeping pace with technology change, particularly in the generation and efficient use of energy and water
- modifying its public and built environment and infrastructure to better cope with hotter days and more intense storms
- modifying horticultural and agricultural practice to adapt to a drier and hotter climate
- modifying coastal management practice
- taking advantage of changed global and national financial flows that will follow implementation of the Paris Agreement.
We need to think about how we turn these challenges into opportunities in Greater Geelong.
[1] United Nations, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992.
[2]
[3] CSIRO, Climate Change in Australia-Projections for Australia’s NRM Regions-Southern Slopes Cluster Report, CSIRO 2015.