Illinois Job Index

Release
04/30/2013 / Data
Jan 1990 / Mar2013 / Issue
2013.04 /

ForFebIllinois Job Index, IL, RMW and the Nation all had positive job growth.

The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.

 / Apr
2013
Negative / Feb2013–Mar2013 / Last 12 months / Mar2013
Total non-farm employment / Growth Rate % / Number of Jobs / Growth Rate% / Number of Jobs / Shadow U.R. *
Nation / 0.07 / 88,000 / 1.43 / 1,910,000 / 12.2%
RMW / -0.32 / -62,000 / 0.52 / 99,800 / 13.9%
Illinois / -0.31 / -17,800 / 0.64 / 36,600 / 12.2%

*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.

Talking Points
Illinois
Notes /
  • Illinoisshed17,800 jobs in Mar2013, compared with a revised 15,300 job gains in Feb2013. Compared to March2012, Illinois has added 36,600 jobs. The three-month moving average of jobs, a more stable measure of labor market, was up by 1,100 jobs per month.
  • The Nation added 88,000 jobs at a rate of 0.07%, compared with a revised 268,000 job gainsin Feb 2013.The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 168,000 jobs per month.
  • RMW shed62,000 jobs inFebat a rate of -0.32% after a revised 54,000 job gains in Feb. The three-month moving average was up by10,200 jobs per month.
  • Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 32 times and positive job gains 31times so far.The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 211,700 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
  • Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 – Construction, Manufacturing, Information and Financial activities.
  • Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 192,000 new jobs.
  • By Mar 2013, sector Leisure & hospitality has recovered to its previous employment peak level while sector Professional & business services is almost recovered to its previous employment peak level. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality. For sectors such as Construction and Information, they will continue to lose jobs with faster rates.
  • The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 12.2%, 13.9% and 12.2%, compared to official unemployment rates of 9.5%, 7.4% and 7.6%.
  • ThroughMar2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 9.64%, 12.10%, and 23.87%, respectively.

Nation
Notes /
  • Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 88,000 jobs. Sectors such asConstruction, Information, Professional & business services, Education & health and Leisure & hospitalityhad major job gains.
  • Since the last employment peak in December 2007, the nation has lost 2,847,000jobs. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
  • The nation has average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 were 0.07%, -0.27%, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14%and 0.12%, respectively.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – Mar2013
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Mar2013
Number of Jobs / Current
Index to Jan 1990 / Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Pervious Peak
Nation / 135,195,000 / 123.87 / 126.57 (Dec-2007) / 26,050,000 / -2,847,000
RMW / 19,157,900 / 112.10 / 119.44 (Jun-2000) / 2,067,300 / -1,241,100
Illinois / 5,776,200 / 109.64 / 115.08 (Nov-2000) / 507,900 / -280,800
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Apr2012 –Mar2013

Barometer of Job Recovery

* The figure 655,700 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, 2000-Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest point 2009-Dec is472,800. Adding 182,900, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is655,700.

**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.

*** The figure 192,000 represents the jobs recoveredfrom Dec. 2009 throughMarch2013.

Employment Growth Rateby Sector:

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by SectorFeb2013- Mar2013
Sector notes /
  • Illinois posted negative change in Mar2013 byshedding17,800jobs. Twoout of ten sectors recorded netgains. Compared toFeb, Other Services(-0.24% to 0.68%) had a major performance gain;Construction(1.24% to -0.69%) had a major performance loss.Education & health(0.13% to 0.33%)experienced net performance gain while Construction (1.24% to 0.07%), Manufacturing (0.29% to -0.09%),Trade, transportation & utilities (0.09% to -0.77), Information (0.30% to -0.20%), Financial activities (0.08 % to 0.00%), Professional & business services(0.82% to -0.66%),Leisure & hospitality (0.28% to -0.91%)and Government (0.06% to -0.08%)experienced net losses in performance.
  • InMarat the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
  • Professional & business services: 51,000 (0.28%)
  • Education & health:44,000 (0.21%)
  • Construction:18,000 (0.31%)
  • Major top three losses at the national level inMarwere recorded by:
  • Trade, transportation & utilities: -27,000 (-0.10%)
  • Other Services: -9,000(-0.16%)
  • Government: -7,000(-0.03%)
  • For Illinois, the major job-gain sectors inMarwere:
  • Education & health: 2,900 (0.33%)
  • Other Services: 1,700 (0.68%)
  • Following are the major top three sectors that lost jobs in Febfor Illinois:
  • Trade, transportation & utilities: -9,000 (-0.77%)
  • Professional & business services:-5,800(-0.66%)
  • Leisure & hospitality: -4,900 (-0.91%)
  • For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment levels, Manufacturing has -339,100fewer jobs, Construction is down -44,500jobs, Information down -30,600jobs and Financial activities down -1,400jobs.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 –Mar2013
Illinois / RMW / Nation
vs. RMW / vs. / Number of Jobs / Rate % / Rate / Rate
Nation / % / %
Construction / - / - / -44,500 / -19.31 / -0.32 / 7.01
Manufacturing / - / - / -339,100 / -36.77 / -27.12 / -32.68
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / - / - / 9,900 / 0.86 / 3.10 / 13.41
Information / - / - / -30,600 / -23.48 / -18.80 / 1.27
Financial activities / - / - / -1,400 / -0.38 / 14.77 / 19.10
Professional & business services / - / - / 298,200 / 52.13 / 62.65 / 70.06
Education & health / - / - / 350,200 / 66.19 / 66.39 / 91.68
Leisure & hospitality / + / - / 151,700 / 39.52 / 29.25 / 50.43
Other Services / + / - / 47,500 / 23.10 / 16.94 / 29.47
Government / + / - / 74,500 / 9.86 / 9.62 / 20.46
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 –Mar 2013
Job Changes in Recession Period* / Job Changes in Jan 2010-Mar 2013 / Recovery Rate / Forecasted Job Changes Jan 2010-Nov 2013 / Forecasted Recovery Rate
Construction / -63,800 / -18,000 / -28.21% / -22,700 / -35.58%
Manufacturing / -114,500 / 28,300 / 24.72% / 29,700 / 25.94%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / -97,100 / 37,000 / 38.11% / 30,100 / 31.00%
Information / -11,300 / -4,700 / -41.59% / -5,200 / -46.02%
Financial activities / -32,700 / 6,200 / 18.96% / 11,600 / 35.47%
Professional & business services / -92,700 / 89,300 / 96.33% / 96,500 / 104.10%
Education & health / 32,200 / 57,800 / -- / 74,100 / --
Leisure & hospitality / -22,300 / 23,700 / 106.28% / 29,000 / 130.04%
Other services / -6,300 / -2,500 / -39.68% / -1,900 / -30.16%
Government / 5,600 / -26,500 / -- / -22,800 / --

*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009

Recovery by Sector /
  • During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectorsthat had positive job growth during the recession.
  • Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure hospitality have recovered 24.72%, 38.11%,18.96%, 96.33%,106.28%, respectively, from the job lost during the recession.
  • By Mar 2013, Leisure & hospitality has recovered to its previous employment peak level while sector Professional & business services is almost recovered to its previous employment peak level.
  • However, Construction, Information and Other services continued to lose jobs leading to negative recovery rates of -28.21%,-41.59% and -39.68% respectively.
  • The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show thatthe future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
  • For sectors such as Construction andInformation, they will continue to lose jobs with faster rates.

Construction / Feb2013 – Mar2013 / Feb2013 – Mar2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.69 / -1,300
RMW / -1.43 / -10,000
Nation / 0.31 / 18,000
Manufacturing / Feb2013 – Mar2013 / Feb2013 – Mar2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.09 / -500
RMW / 0.20 / 5,200
Nation / -0.03 / -3,000
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / Feb2013 – Mar2013 / Feb2013 – Mar2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.77 / -9,000
RMW / -0.47 / -16,900
Nation / -0.10 / -27,000
Information / Feb2013 – Mar2013 / Feb2013 – Mar2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.20 / -200
RMW / -0.89 / -2,600
Nation / 0.19 / 5,000
Financial activities / Feb2013 – Mar2013 / Feb2013 – Mar2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.00 / 0?
RMW / 0.14 / 1,500
Nation / 0.00 / 0?
Professional & business services / Feb2013 – Mar2013 / Feb2013 – Mar2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.66 / -5,800
RMW / -0.26 / -6,100
Nation / 0.28 / 51,000
Education & health / Feb2013 – Mar2013 / Feb2013 – Mar2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.33 / 2,900
RMW / -0.09 / -2,700
Nation / 0.21 / 44,000
Leisure & hospitality / Feb2013 – Mar2013 / Feb2013 – Mar2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.91 / -4,900
RMW / -0.45 / -8,400
Nation / 0.12 / 17,000
Other Services / Feb2013 – Mar2013 / Feb2013 – Mar2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.68 / 1,700
RMW / -0.88 / -7,000
Nation / -0.16 / -9,000
Government / Feb2013 – Mar2013 / Feb2013 – Mar2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.08 / -700
RMW / -0.51 / -14,800
Nation / -0.03 / -7,000

ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at

Illinois Jobs Index / release 04/30/2013 / / page 1