ECO-460-01 Economic & Business Forecasting- CRN:12665

Fall 2013

ECO-460-01 Economic & Business Forecasting- CRN:12665

COURSE SYLLABUS

DR. REZA HAMZAEE

BOG-Distinguished Professor of Economics

Missouri Western State UniversityOffice: PH 212-C

Department of Economics, Pol. Sc. & Soc.Office Phone:271-4262

Home Phone:913-912-1773

E-Mail:

Teaching & Office Hours Schedule

*If the above office hours may not match with your free time, make an appointment in advance.

TESTS AND FINAL EXAM SCHEDULE

2013 Fall Semester Academic Calendar

March 27...... (Wednesday)...... Advisement begins

April 1...... (Monday)...... Registration begins

August 20...... (Tuesday)...... Walk-In Registration

August 26...... (Monday)...... Classes Begin

August 26-30...... (Monday-Friday)...... Late Registration/Add Period

August 30...... (Friday)...... Last day to change from “audit” to “credit”

September 2...... (Monday)...... Labor Day (no classes)

September 3...... (Tuesday)...... Withdrawal period begins (“W” recorded on transcript)

September 20...... (Friday)...... Last day to choose A/CR/U (Pass/Fail) Option

October 23...... (Wednesday)...... Mid-term grades due

October 30...... (Wednesday)...... Spring advisement begins

November 1...... (Friday)...... Deadline for Spring graduation application

November 1...... (Friday)...... Last day to withdraw (“W” recorded on transcript)

November 1...... (Friday)...... Last day to change from “credit” to “audit”

November 4...... (Monday)...... Registration begins for Spring

Nov 24 - Dec 1...... (Sunday-Sunday).....Fall Break (no classes)

December 6...... (Friday)...... Last day of classes

December 7-13...... (Saturday-Friday)...... Final Exams

December 14...... (Saturday)...... Commencement

December 17...... (Tuesday)...... Final grades due

All tests, including final exams, will be given in the regular classrooms. All tests for ECO 363, ECO 460, and ECO 607 will be in essay format. Final exams for all classes will be comprehensive covering the whole materials taught during the semester.

1. Course: ECO 460 -Business & Economic Forecasting – (Counted as an LAS

Computer Literacy Course)

Prerequisite: ECO 260, GBA 210, or Mat 132.

2. The Required Textbook and Supplements:

• Business Forecasting, John E. Hanke, Dean W. Wichern, & Arthur G. Reitsch, 8th or the latest edition.
• Mintitab Software-Student Version
• Minitab Student Guide

All three items are presented in one package at the bookstore.

3.Recommended (Not required) References:

1. Elements of Forecasting, Francis X. Diebold, 2nd edition, 2001.
2. Business Cycles and Forecasting, Howard J. Sherman, and David X. Kolk, 1996.
3. Business Forecasting, J. Holton Wilson, Barry Keating, and John Galt Solutions, Inc., 4th edition, 2002.
4. Statistics and Econometrics: Methods and Applications, Orley Ashenfelter, Phillip B. Levine, and David J. Zimmerman, 2003.
5. A Guide to Modern Econometrics, Marno Verbeek, 2000.
6. Undergraduate Econometrics, R. Carter Hill, William E. Griffiths, and George G. Judge, 2nd edition, 2001.

4.Additional Reading Materials:

i.The class notes

ii.Reading Assignments (lists of questions provided by the instructor on each covered chapter and designated materials) to lead you to study more efficiently.

iii.Occasional assignments on (external) hot issues.

5.Grading Policy:

Your grades will be determined competitively (i.e. will be curved) based on 3 tests, the final exam, a team-term project, and your class participation in the following manner:

• Test (I):41 points
• Test (II):41 points
• Test (III):41 points
• Comprehensive Final Exam:61 points
• 6 to 8-piece Homework (50 points)
• Never-Absent Credit (bonus): 3 points
• Never-Late Credit (bonus): 2 points
• Correct answers to instructor's credit-designated

lecture questions: up to 5 points (Max)

• Class (Effective) Attendance (with no more than 4 class cuts) 10 points

Total possible for the course (ECO 460):244 points

The final exam will be made on three parts of the course materials in the following credit order:

i. 15 credit points allocated to part one (covered for the first test)

ii. 15 credit points allocated to part two (materials assigned after test one and up to the 2nd test)

iii. 31 credit points reserved for part three, i.e. the entire materials taught after the 2nd test through the last day of classes.

6. Motivational Policy:

If you make 36 (90% of 40 - no curving on this) or higher on each single one of the three tests, and 40.50 on homework, and miss no classes at all, you will not have to take the final exam; your grade for the course will be an "A" since the date of the third test is just a few days before the final exam, and that I won't cover new material for the final exam. We will simply review everything at the last designated class time.

7. An Example of Grading:

i. Suppose Mr. X earned the following scores:

Test (I): 32 from a max. of 41

Test (II): 25 from a max. of 41

Test (III): 27 from a max. of 41

Final Exam: 35 from a max. of 61

Homework: 32 from a max. of 50

Correct answers during all lectures:2 of a max. of 5

Never-Absent Credit (bonus):0 from a max. of 3 points

Never-Late Credit (bonus): 0 from a max. of 3 points

Class attendance: 10 from a max. of 10

Total: 163 from a max. of 255 (assuming that he got no bonus credit points for being always on time and cutting no classes)

ii. Suppose the competitive grade distribution turns out to be such that the "C" range is 162 to 190. Then Mr. X's score would fit in the "C" range. What would happen if he did not participate regularly? He would simply get 153 (instead of 163), which would not be a "C" anymore.

8.Grade Appeal Process (according to MWSU’s Academic Policies)

Effective: 07/01/2010

Students are responsible for meeting the standards for academic performance established

for each course in which they are enrolled. The establishment of the criteria for grades

and the evaluation of student academic performance are the responsibilities of the

instructor delegated by this University.

The grade appeal procedure is available for the review of allegedly capricious grading or

clerical error by the instructor and not for the purpose of evaluating the student’s

academic excellence in any particular course. Capricious grading, as the term is used

here, consists only of any of the following:

• the assignment of a grade to a particular student on some basis other than the

performance in the course;

• the assignment of a grade to a particular student by resorting to more exacting or

demanding standards than were applied to other students in the course;

• the assignment of a grade by a substantial departure from the instructor’s

previously announced standards.

Student Appeal Process

Step One- The student must discuss the course grade fully with the instructor of the

course. This must be done no later than thirty (30) calendar days into the

succeeding regular academic semester, beginning with the first day of classes.

Step Two- If the student desires to appeal the grade further, he or she may utilize the

departmental/school grade appeal procedure.

Every academic unit must have a set of grade appeal procedures which are to be

made available to student upon request; copies of those procedures are to be on

file in the office of the relevant academic Dean and the Provost and Vice

President for Academic Affairs. The challenge must be made in writing to the

appropriate departmental chairperson/school dean. The appeal must be made no

later than ten (10) calendar days after the aforementioned thirty (30) day deadline.

The departmental chairperson/school dean shall notify the student, in writing, of

the department’s/school’s decision within thirty (30) calendar days of receipt of

the written appeal.

Step Three- If the appeal is not resolved at the departmental/school level, the student may

appeal to the Academic Regulations and Standards Committee in accordance with

its rules and regulations. This appeal must be made in writing no later than ten

(10) calendar days after receipt of the departmental/school decision. The student

must submit his/her written appeal to the department chairperson/school dean and

request that the appeal and any relevant documents regarding the case be sent to

the chairperson of the Academic Regulations and Standards Committee.

Examples of relevant documents include, but are not limited to: (1) course

syllabi, (2) course assignments, (3) the graded work of the appellant, and (4)

samples of the graded work of other students who were in the same course as the

appellant. The department chairperson/school dean will obtain all relevant

documents from the course instructor and forward them to the committee

chairperson within ten (10) calendar days of the student’s request. The course

instructor is expected to comply with all requests for relevant documentation from

his/her department chairperson/school dean. Upon review of the evidence, the

committee may request any additional information that it deems necessary from

the appellant and the course instructor. The committee chairperson will forward

the request for additional information to the appellant and to the department

chairperson/school dean. The appellant and the department chairperson/school

dean must provide the additional material to the committee chairperson within

five (5) calendar days of the committee’s request. Furthermore, the committee

may wish to interview any of the parties involved in the appeal. If so, the

committee chairperson will notify the parties to schedule the interview. The

course instructor and the appellant are expected to comply with all requests for

additional information and interviews.

The committee chairperson will notify the student of the committee’s decision in

writing, within thirty (30) calendar days of receipt of the written appeal. This

notification will be delivered by regular mail to the postal address on file for the

student and by e-mail to the student’s university e-mail address. The committee

chairperson will also notify the course instructor, the department

chairperson/school dean, the relevant academic dean, the Provost and the

Registrar of the committee’s decision. This notification will be transmitted to

these individuals by campus e-mail.

If the committee determines that the student’s grade ought to be changed, the

committee chairperson must submit a Revised Grade Report Form to the

Registrar’s Office. The Registrar will modify the student’s transcripts within ten

(10) calendar days after receipt of the form from the committee chairperson. The

decision of the Academic Regulations and Standards Committee is final.

The grade appeal process shall be complete within the semester succeeding the

awarding of the original grade.

It is the responsibility of the student to initiate the grade appeal process

9.Class Attendance:

(I): Consulting with my statistical results as to the correlation between students' grades and their participation, I am totally convinced that although class participation is not a sufficient condition to do well in a class after all, it is certainly a necessary condition. In one of my statistical surveys, I found that 90% of the students who had not participated regularly in their corresponding classes, could not earn any grades close to "C" or above it. Since I really want to see all of you excel in this class, I have allocated 10 credit points for your regular class participation. If you do not participate regularly, you are not going to take any of the 10 points. Each student has a chance to miss up to 4 classes (but not more) in a TTH class, and up to 5 (not more) in a MWF class without being deprived of 10 points.

(II): Students have frequently told me sadly that "one will miss a lot on each single test if one misses even one class." They are right; don't miss any class at all unless you absolutely have to. 100% of my students who have just showed up for the designated tests in a class and missed my lectures have always failed the corresponding courses. Please drop the course if you do not have the needed time to attend the regular class sessions.

(III): What is considered as a class attendance is simply an effective attendance with no napping and no disturbance of any other students' attention. Reading materials, doing homework, or talking to peers are not allowed during the professor's lecture. Students are required to arrive in class on time, and once you decide to attend a class, you are kindly requested not to leave the class prior to the end of the period. Students who attend a class only for a portion of the period will lose the credit for that specific class time. Students are strongly encouraged to alter alternative appointments, such as those with their dentists, lawyers, physicians, etc., to other times in which this class does not meet. Remember you have an appointment with Dr. Hamzaee during the class time.

The University Attendance Requirement:

In order to improve student learning as well as achieving compliance with federal financial aid policies, MWSU has a mandatory policy for all 100 and 200 level courses, as follows:

• You will be given an excused absence when acting as an official representative of the university, provided that you give prior written verification from the faculty/staff supervisor of the event.
• Other Forms of Excused Absences, Assignment &/or Test Make-up Policy, Determined by the Professor for All Classes:

Only under the following conditions (altogether) one can expect to consider an absence as an excused one, and take a make-up test, in case of missing it at the right time:

i.The student should have a very strong reason to deserve taking a make-up test, and

ii.The student should prove the credibility of the cause of missing the test through official (and clear) proofs, and

iii.The student should have talked to the instructor before deciding to miss any test, or else, it should be proved that it was impossible at the time to let the instructor know about the potential reason.

***Calling the department and leaving a message for the instructor is not a sufficient act for deserving a make-up test.

All other forms of absence will be deemed unexcused. The maximum number of unexcused absences allowed for this class before the midterm report, October 23, 2013, is determined by MWSU to be 5 for MWF (meeting 3 times a week) classes and 3 for TTh classes (meeting twice a week). Thus, when you have 6 (in the first case) or 4 (in the second case) unexcused absences you will be reported to the Registrar’s Office, who will automatically withdraw you from the class. The financial Aid Office will reduce financial aid as appropriate.

Do You Want Extra Bonus Points?

You can earn 3 bonus points for never being absent, and 2 bonus points for never being late for whatever mandatory (unavoidable) or discretionary reasons. If you are absent once or more, you’ll lose the chance for both cases, i.e., you will get no bonus points at all. You may answer some of my credit-designated questions (I’ll announce which one is which), and get up to 5 bonus points during my lectures.

(IV): Guests Policy:

I will be happy to admit your guests in my classes for up to 3 times based on my prior authorization. Guests are required to follow the regular class rules to avoid any disturbance to other fellow students. Unfortunately, students are not allowed to bring any babies to the class. A student's child whose behavior is under full control of the student may be admitted based on my prior authorization well in advance of (not at my arrival time in) that class.

(V): Lecture & Test Attendance Policy:

Students will be required to use their free times prior to every lecture and/or test to accommodate all of their basic needs such as drinking water, eating food, or using the restroom. One may not be allowed to leave any lecture and/or test session unless (s)he recognizes the loss of attendance credit for that class and/or is finished with the test.

10. Mobile Phone and Other Ringers:

All mobile phones and ringers must be turned off for the entire periods of class lectures and tests: No exception will be considered.New Policy: For every phone ring or text messaging during the class time, students will lose 1 point.

11Seating:

Please choose a seat that you like and continue to sit there for the rest of the semester. I will make a seating chart and take roll on a daily basis in order to count class cuts and to learn as many of your names as possible. If someone is sitting in "your" seat, please inform them of my seating chart or see me.

12.Academic Honesty Policy and Due Process:

Academic honesty is required in all academic endeavors. Violations of academic honesty include any instance of plagiarism, cheating, seeking credit for another’s work, falsifying documents or academic records, or any other fraudulent activity. Violations of academic honesty may result in a failing grade on the assignment, failure in the course, or expulsion from the University. When a student’s grade has been affected, violations of academic honesty will be reported to the Provost or designated representative on the Academic Honesty Violation Report forms.

Please see the Student Handbook and Calendar for specific activities identified as violations of this policy and the student due process procedure. According to the general regulation, anyone caught cheating on a test will be given an automatic zero for that test.