American Presidential Campaigns and Elections 1960-2016

NYU Draft Syllabus – 2016

10/17/18 5:37 PM

DRAFT – Subject to change

“American Presidential Campaigns and Elections 1960-2016”

UPADM-GP 210-001

NYU – Fall 2016

Thursdays, 4:55-6:55 pmMaxine Isaacs

Sept. 15 – Nov. 10,

Location: 24 Waverly Place, Room 369OFFICE HOURS: Thursdays, 1-5

Wagner School adjunct office 3047

Through your own experience, reading, historical perspective, analysis and discussion with experts, you will focus on important questions concerning the health and state of the American electoral/political system. Looking at campaigns and elections from 1960 to the present, we will work hard to put this year’s very different campaign into some historical perspective.

You should come away from this course with some appreciation for the way American presidential politics really work – not through the eyes of commentators but as seen by those who are engaged daily in the election of the American president. You will examine polling and the nature and structure of American public opinion; the ways in which the media transmit information about the campaign and how the voters perceive that information; and you will study the difference between theory and practice when it comes to presidential politics.

There will have been fifteen presidential elections between 1960 and 2016. Depending on the size of the class, two of you will be assigned to each of those elections – one on the Democratic side and one on the Republican side. Together you will read one book for “your” election. For example, the students responsible for 1960 will read Theodore White’s classic The Making of the President 1960, and the students responsible for 2008 may read Game Change or some other contemporary account. The students responsible for 2016 will have to stay on top of the two (possibly four) campaigns currently underway and be prepared to report to us each week. Additionally, for each subject matter we will study – for example, the electoral college; nominee selection process; conventions and VP selection; public opinion; the press; debates; campaigns on the ground – you will be expected to bring knowledge of “your” election into the classroom discussion.

There will be nine meetings of this module. You will be expected to come to every class fully prepared to participate if called upon.

At our fifth meeting, on October 13, 2016, you will be expected to hand in a two-page memo on a topic to be assigned. At our final meeting, on November 10, 2016, you will hand in a second two-page memo relating specifically to the just-concluded presidential election. In both memos, you will be expected to demonstrate mastery not just of “your” election but of the campaign currently underway.

In class I strongly prefer that you take notes in the old-fashioned pencil and paper way. Unless you are specifically exempted, I will apply a “no machines” rule in class. What happens in class is essentially copyrighted, so if you intend to write or blog about what happens in class you must have my permission and that of your classmates in advance. Finally, you may not write about the in-class comments of any our guests without their prior permission.

MATERIALS

You will rent or purchase one book for this course, The Road to the White House 2016 (10th edition) by Stephen J. Wayne. I believe there is an online version available for rent. Other than that, your reading will consist of the book for “your” campaign and excerpts from selected works, all of which should be available online.

TENTATIVE CALENDAR (subject to change)

Thursday, Sept. 15, 2016Introduction and Electoral College

In our first meeting we will get acquainted, and you will select or be assigned the election year for which you will be responsible. If there are two of you for each year we will determine who gets the Republicans and who gets the Democrats. We will discuss my goals and objectives for the course as well as yours. I will present a brief “electoral college slideshow” go give you an overview of our subject.

REQUIRED READING:Wayne, pp. 3-5, 12-13, 16-21, 265-67, 297-304

Wayne, Table 9.3

Federalist Paper No. 68 by Alexander Hamilton

OPTIONAL READING:Popkin, The Candidate, Chapter 10

Thurs., Sept. 22Nominee Selection Process: Primaries & Caucuses

Today we may be joined by someone who served as a strategist for one of the major campaigns this year. We will examine the evolution of the nominating process in the modern era, and the students responsible for 2016 will present an overview of how this year’s two major candidates were selected. Come to class prepared to discuss how the candidates were selected in “your” presidential election.

REQUIRED READING:Wayne, pp. 6, 9-12, 100-04, 107-08

Popkin, The Candidate, pp. 101-30

NOTE: First presidential debate scheduled for Sept. 26th. This is required viewing, preferably in real time.

Thurs., Sept. 29VP Selection and the Conventions

Again today we may have a guest who was involved in one of the two major parties’ convention. A nominee’s selection of his or her running-mate is their first presidential decision, and it usually signals some important messages to the voters. Similarly, the major parties’ conventions also communicate important information to the voters which may not easily be put into words – about the composition and condition of the parties, the depth of their bench, the “vision” and abilities of the nominees. Come to class prepared to discuss the VP selection process and the conventions in your year.

REQUIRED READING:Wayne, pp. 102-03, 105, 148-50, 152-63

NOTE: First and only VP debate is scheduled for Oct. 4th. This is required viewing, preferably in real time.

Thurs., Oct. 6The Nature and Structure of Public Opinion

We will turn today to some theory concerning the nature and structure of American public opinion, and how people make their decisions about whether and for whom to vote. You will learn the difference among individual, aggregate, and elite opinion. Although this material is pretty dense you will find it enormously helpful in your understanding of how political leaders’ and media communication is understood and influences (or is influenced by) American public opinion.

REQUIRED READING:Page & Shapiro, pp. 1-36 (Chapter 1)

Surowiecki, pp. xi-xxi (Intro)

Kull & Ramsay (in Nacos), pp. 104-08

RECOMMENDED:Graber, 1-10

NOTE: Second presidential debate scheduled for Sun., 10/9. This is required viewing, preferably in real time.

Thurs., Oct. 13Managing the Campaign on the Ground

It is common to talk about the importance of the “ground game” of identifying and getting your voters to the polls, but very few commentators really understand what is involved – the extent of the effort and the importance not only of technical mastery but of real political knowledge and skill at the very intersection of a massive national campaign and an individual voter. Today my son Alfred Johnson will join us for our discussion of what is involved in running a presidential campaign on the ground.

REQUIRED READING:Wayne, pp. 67-70, Table 3.4 on P. 77, Table 3.5 on pp. 83-85, 107-10, 195-98

RECOMMENDED:Fiorina, Chapter 4

NOTE: Third and final presidential debate scheduled for Wed. 10/19. This is required viewing, preferably in real time.

Thurs., Oct. 20Debates

By the time we meet to discuss presidential debates from 1960 to 2016 the three presidential and one vice presidential debate will have concluded, and we will already have begun to understand their impact. The importance of the debates to voters’ final decision-making cannot be overstated. Come to class prepared to discuss the presidential AND vice presidential debates in “your” election.

REQUIRED READING:Wayne, PP. 219-25

RECOMMENDED: Popkin, The Candidate, pp. 136-37, 232-34

Jamieson, pp. 3-16, 222-27

Thurs., Oct. 27The Press: How PeopleLearn and What they do with Information

It is possible that in this class a journalist will join us who has had extensive experience covering presidential campaigns and elections. In any case, an important component of this class will be some theoretical knowledge about how people learn, through the media, advertising and of course today the internet about presidential campaigns. We will examine some of the prevailing theories about the way information is transmitted in a democratic society and what people do with the information they receive.

REQUIRED READING:Wayne, pp. 120-21, 123-24, 218-19, 225-33

Shorenstein Center Report:

RECOMMENDED:Diamond & Bates, pp. 350-67

Just, pp. 3-17

Popkin, The Reasoning Voter, pp. 1-21

Thurs., Nov. 3The Electorate

Five days before the election of 2016 it is now all up to the voters. What do the people really think about the choice in this year’s election? What are the polls telling us at this critical moment? Who is likely to turn out, and who will stay home? Have the candidates succeeded in communicating to the voters what they really wished to communicate? Come to class prepared to discuss what happened in “your” year and how the upcoming election looked just before final votes were cast?

Thurs., Nov 10What happened?

It’s all over. What happened and what does it mean?

NOTE: Your final two-page memo will be due today.

READING

OPTIONAL AND REQUIRED

Diamond, Edwin and Stephen Bates. The Spot: The Rise of Political Advertising on Television, 3rdEdition. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1993. ISBN; 0262540657

Fiorina, Morris P. et al. Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America, 3rd Edition. Boston: Longman, 2011. ISBN: 978205779888

Graber, Doris A. Processing Politics: Learning from Television in an Internet Age. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2002. ISBN: 0226305765

Jamieson, Kathleen Hall and David S. Birdsell. Presidential Debates: The Challenge of Creating an Informed Electorate. New York: Oxford University Press, 1988. ISBN: 019506660X

Just, Marion R. et al. Crosstalk: Citizens, Candidates, and the Media in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996. ISBN; 022640213

Kull, Steven and Clay Ramsey. “Elite Misperceptions of US Public Opinion on Foreign Policy.” In Decisionmaking in a Glass House: Mass Media, Public Opinion and American and European Foreign Policy in the 21st Century. Brigitte L. Nacos et al, editors. New York: Rowman and Littlefield, 2003. ISBN: 0742529193.

Page, Benjamin I. and Robert Y. Shapiro. The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans’ Policy Preferences. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992. ISBN: 0226644782

Patterson, Thomas E. “News Coverage of the 2016 Presidential Primaries: Horse Race Reporting has Consequences,” July 11, 2016.

Popkin, Samuel L. The Candidate: What it Takes to Win and Hold the White House. New York: Oxford University Press, 2012. ISBN: 9780199922079

Popkin, Samuel L. The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994. ISBN: 0226675459

Rossiter, Clinton, ed. The Federalist Papers. Number 68. NY, NY: New American Library, 1999. ISBN: 451628810

Surowiecki, James. The Wisdom of Crowds. New York: Doubleday, 2004. ISBN: 0385503865

Wayne, Stephen J. The Road to the White House 2016, 10th Edition. Boston, MA: Cengage Learning, 2015. ISBN: 9781285865201

RECOMMENDED CAMPAIGN BOOKS, 1960-2012

(These are suggestions only. Feel free to find your own source on your election.)

1960

White, Theodore H. The Making of the President 1960. New York: Pocket Books, 1962. Hollis No. 002851107

1964

White, Theodore H. The Making of the President 1964. New York: New American Library, 1966. Hollis No. 001650262

ALSO SEE: Wayne, pp. 228-29

1968

White, Theodore H. The Making of the President 1968. New York: Aheneum Publishers, 1969. Hollis No. 004921318.

ALSO SEE: Wayne, pp. 97-99

1972

Crouse, Timothy. The Boys on the Bus. New York: Ballantine Books, 1993 (20th printing). ISBN: 0345340159

Thompson, Hunter S. Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail. New York: Warner Books, 2006 (?). Hollis No. 010152824

1976

Schram, Martin. Running for President, 1976: The Carter Campaign. New York: Stein & Day, 1977. Hollis No. 000845664

1980

Drew, Elizabeth. Portrait of an Election: The 1980 Presidential Campaign. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1981. Hollis No. 000941976

1984

Germond, Jack W. and Jules Witcover. Wake Us When It’s Over: Presidential Politics of 1984. New York: Macmillan, 1985. Hollis No. 00378695

1988

Cramer, Richard Ben. What It Takes: The Way to the White House. New York: Random House, 1992. Hollis No. 002432236

1992

Goldman, Peter et al. Quest for the Presidency 1992. College Station, TX: Texas A&M University Press, 1994. Hollis No. 004828214

Denton, Robert E. Jr. The 1996 Presidential Campaign: A Communication Perspective. Westport, CT: Praeger, 1998. Hollis No. 007774379

2000

New York Correspondents. 36 Days: The Complete Chronicle of the 2000 Presidential Election Crisis. New York: Times Books, 2001. Hollis No. 008610351

2004

Thomas, Evan et al. Election 2004: How Bush Won and What You can Expect in the Future. New York: Public Affairs, 2004. ISBN: 1586482939

ALSO SEE: Wayne, 127-35, 189-93

2008

Heileman, John and Mark Halperin. Game Change: Obama and the Clintons, McCain & Palin, and the Race of a Lifetime. New York: Harper, 2010. ISBN: 0061733636

ALSO SEE: Wayne, pp. 127-135, 189-93

2012

Balz, Dan and James Silberman. Collision 2012: Obama vs. Romney and the Future of Elections in America. Viking Adult, 2013. ISBN: 0670025941

ALSO SEE: Wayne, pp. 127-35, 189-93.

1