Control + 1 Block Headings s5

CHINA DO THE PLAN CP DDI 2011

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1

***SHELL*** 3

1NC 4

***CHINA CAN SOLVE SPACE*** 5

China Can Do Space Generally 6

Asteroid/Near Earth Objects Tracking 12

Debris Cleanup 14

Moon Mining 15

SBSP 17

***CHINA PRESTIGE NB*** 18

1NC – Zero Sum DA 19

1NC - CCP Stability DA 21

ASATs Bads DA 24

NORTH KOREA MEDIATOR SHELL 26

Space K 2 to Chinese Soft Power 29

Uniqueness – China winning 31

Link – zero-sum 34

Link – Weaponization is Zero Sum 37

China Space is Benign 39

A2: Threatens US 40

US-China Relations Prevent Extinction 41

China Conflict Causes Extinction 42

***CHINA ECON NET BENEFIT*** 43

1nc shell 44

competitiveness link 47

investment links 48

technology links 49

industry links 51

education links 52

job links 53

general links 54

tradeoff link 58

a2: china will militarize 59

satellite industry k 60

foreign investment k 62

china aerospace k2 global aerospcae 63

econ collapse inev 64

china economy k2 global economy 65

china economy impacts 66

a2: economy resilient 67

***AT COOP PERM*** 68

COOPERATION WILL NOT HAPPEN 69

COOPERATION KILLS SOLVENCY 70

COOPERATION DOESN’T HELP RELATIONS 72

COOP LINKS TO POLITICS 73

LINK TO POLITICS EXTENSIONS 75

COOP IS ILLEGAL 77

***US-CHINA SPACE COOP BAD: BALLISTIC MISSILE PROLIF*** 78

BMP DA SHELL 79

NoKo Close to BMP 81

CHINA PASSES ON TECH SECRETS 82

IRAN BMP ADDON 84

***AFF*** 86

CHINA IS BAD AT SPACE 87

Chinese Space Bad – Nationalism 88

A2: Zero Sum 89

*** COOP PERM*** 90

US CHINA SPACE COOP GOOD 91

***AFF: CHINA SPENDING DA*** 93

Tradeoff 2AC Disad 94

Econ Uniqueness 96

Fiscal discipline now 98

Plan Kills Space Budget 99

Social Tradeoff 101

No Spending Now 102

Unrest Threatens CCP Survival 104

Unrest Kills US-Sino Relations 105

***NEG: AT CHINA SPENDING DA*** 106

Tech Spending Now 107

NEG Econ Sustainable 108

NEG Counterplan Solves Unrest 110

NEG No Instability Impact 111

***SHELL***

1NC

Text: The People’s Republic of China should ______

Solvency:

China becoming increasingly capable of space development

RAND, nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decision making through research and analysis, 2011, National Security Research Division, “Ready for Takeoff: China’s Advancing Aerospace Industry”, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2011/RAND_MG1100.pdf

China has made significant progress in advancing its space capabilities over the past decade and is making concerted efforts to further expand them. All relevant metrics reveal an accelerating growth trend in the country’s civilian and military space program development. In 83 known spacecraft launches between October 20, 1996, and June 15, 2010, Chinese launch vehicles experienced only one failure—an incomplete burn of a third stage that resulted in an Indonesian communications satellite being put in the wrong orbit in August 2009 (“Long March [Chang Zheng],” 2010). The 83 launches included three successful launches of manned spacecraft, the most recent of which, in September 2008, involved a spacewalk, and two lunar orbiters (“Shenzhou Series,” 2009; “Chang’e Series,” 2010). China’s government is trying to promote China’s growth as a provider of commercial space products and services. In the 1990s, China emerged as a major provider of commercial launch services with its Chang Zheng (“Long March”) series of launch vehicles. From 1990 to 1999, Chinese rockets launched nearly 30 satellites for customers based outside of mainland China. In the late 1990s, however, several Chang Zheng launches failed, and it was revealed that U.S. satellite companies had provided technical assistance to Chinese launch-vehicle-makers (who also make missiles for the Chinese military and for export), resulting in tightened U.S. restrictions on China launching satellites that contain U.S. technology. As a consequence, only a handful of launches have been conducted for customers based outside of mainland China since 1999 (“Long March [Chang Zheng],” 2010). Recently, however, China has developed a domestically designed communications satellite, the European company EADS Astrium has developed a communications satellite that contains no U.S. technology, and as noted above, Chinese launch vehicles have established a remarkable record for reliability since 1996. As a result, the appeal of Chinese space products and services in markets outside the United States is probably increasing. China’s 11th Five-Year Plan, which ended in 2010, called for the greater integration of market mechanisms into the space program to foster competition and to generate products and services that could earn China a larger share of the global commercial space-systems market (“Aerospace Development 11th 5-Year Plan”)

***CHINA CAN SOLVE SPACE***

China Can Do Space Generally

China is forging ahead in space exploration

Associated Press, 7/12/11, “China’s space program targets moon”, http://articles.boston.com/2011-07-12/news/29765708_1_china-plans-chinese-space-station-space-leadership

This year, a rocket will carry a boxcar-size module into orbit, the first building block for a Chinese space station. Around 2013, China plans to launch a lunar probe that will set a rover loose on the moon. It wants to put a man on the moon sometime after 2020. While the United States is still working out its next move after the space shuttle program, China is forging ahead. Some analysts worry that the United States could slip behind China in human spaceflight - the realm of space science with the most prestige.

China’s independently advancing in space technology

Foreign involvement in China’s space industry is significantly less than in the aviation manufacturing industry. China is not closely integrated into the supply chains of foreign space companies, and the market for Chinese products and services such as space launches and satellites is small. Although China’s space launch vehicles were originally based on ballistic-missile technology transferred from the Soviet Union, China has advanced far beyond that technology through its own efforts, and foreign assistance has been limited. Chinese space companies have received technical assistance from foreign entities in some specific areas, such as Russian assistance in the area of manned space-flight, Brazilian assistance in the development of earth-observation satellites, German assistance in the development of communications satellites, and U.S. assistance in launch-vehicle technology. In most cases, however, the advancement of China’s space technology has been the result of purely domestic efforts.

China planning to efficiently further develop space

A separate policy document, the “National Guidance for Medium- and Long-Term Plans for Science and Technology Development (2006–2020),” outlines further goals for the Chinese aerospace industry. Objectives listed in the document include developing nontoxic, pollution-free, high-performance, low-cost, powerful-thrust launch vehicles capable of carrying 25-ton payloads into low earth orbit (LEO) and 14-ton payloads into geostationary orbit (GEO)1; developing a 120-ton-thrust liquid-oxygen/kerosene engine and a 50-tonthrust hydrogen-oxygen engine; improving and developing remote sensing satellites and associated ground stations; further developing communications- and broadcast-satellite technologies; pushing toward commercialization of communications- and broadcast-satellite services; increasing the number and quality of space technology experiments; and developing a deep space telescope (“China’s Space Activities in 2006,” 2006).

China Can Do Space Generally

China is becoming increasingly capable with space development

Thilo Schroeter, Matthew Sollenberger, and Bastiaan Verink, Expertise in the areas of security and foreign policy , especially counterinsurgency, stability operations, security sector reform, regional knowledge in the Middle East, interdisciplinary training in international law, economics and political science, international experience, organizational skills, teamwork, December 29, 2010, Bologna Center Journal of International Affairs, “Challenging US Command of the Commons”, http://bcjournal.org/volume-13/challenging-us-command-of-the-commons.html?printerFriendly=true

China’s space capabilities are growing, and their kinetic ASAT systems are advancing in lockstep. In 2008, China conducted 11 space launches that put a combined 15 satellites into orbit, and the country is in the process of developing more highly advanced rockets that could deliver greater payloads to a wider variety of orbits. The 2009 edition of the annual Pentagon report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China noted that once the ongoing developments of China’s Long March V rocket are complete, they will “more than double” the size of the payloads that China can deliver into low-earth and geosynchronous orbits.11 In addition to new launch vehicles and expanding launch capabilities, China is also developing improved long-range ballistic missiles capable of delivering ASAT payloads into geosynchronous orbits. These new missiles might be capable of directly attacking satellites in a geosynchronous orbit, effectively giving the Chinese military the capability to use direct-ascent methods on satellites operating at any altitude.12 At present, China’s ability to strike at targets in geosynchronous orbits is somewhat limited, as it only possesses the facilities to launch simultaneously four rockets capable of reaching satellites at that altitude.13

China moving forward with space capabilities

The Washington Times, 1/8/10, “China Space Program Shoots for Moon”, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/8/china-eyes-high-ground/

The Pentagon is clearly alarmed by the prospect. The chief of U.S. Strategic Command, Gen. Kevin Chilton, told reporters Nov. 3, “With regard to China’s [space] capabilities, I think anyone who’s familiar with this business … would have to be absolutely amazed at the advancement that China has made in such a short period of time, whether that be in their unmanned program or the manned program.” Senior Chinese space officials have told their state media that China could be on the moon by 2022 at the outside. Other authoritative Chinese space engineers see a moon landing as a next step in the Tiangong program that will launch three Chinese space stations into Earth orbit between 2011 and 2015. In 2008, NASA scientists told the Bush White House that, with the technology currently available to the Chinese space program, Chinese cosmonauts could be on the moon by 2017. NASA sees China’s strategy for a manned lunar landing as launch vehicle intensive. While America’s notional Constellation moon project centers on a single - and still unbuilt - Ares-V “superheavy” lift booster for a direct ascent to the moon and two “lunar orbit rendezvous” operations, China will likely opt for two complex “Earth orbit rendezvous” maneuvers.

China space program growing and plans are long term

Xinhua, 4/15/11, “Argentine Expert Praises China's Space Program”, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-04/15/c_13830084.htm

China's space program has made a giant leap forward with successful manned flights and a space walk, President of the Argentine Association for Space Technology (AATE) Pablo De Leon said Thursday. China is part of a select group of nations, together with the United States and Russia, which has had a progressive growth of its program to conquer space," De Leon told Xinhua. De Leon, also an aerospace engineer and a NASA team member, said that China was likely to build a base on the moon in the coming years. "China's advantage, compared to other countries, is that its plans and programs for space are long-term. It is the right thing, because all these cases are complex projects that require a long execution," De Leon said. Last week, Li Baodong, the Chinese permanent representative to the United Nations, said China is committed to all treaties on outer space, as well as to exploring and using outer space for the benefit of mankind. China's manned space project, launched in 1999, has made seven flights, sent six astronauts into space on three occasions and performed a space walk, Li said.

China Can Do Space Generally

China Making plans for deep space exploration

Associated Press, 7/12/11, “China’s space program targets moon”, http://articles.boston.com/2011-07-12/news/29765708_1_china-plans-chinese-space-station-space-leadership

China, having orbited the moon and starting collecting data on it, is moving toward sending a human there — and beyond. It hopes to launch the rover-releasing moon probe in about two years. Chinese experts believe a moon landing will happen in 2025 at the earliest. "The lunar probe is the starting point for deep-space exploration," said Wu Weiren, chief designer of China's moon-exploring program, in a 2010 interview posted on the national space agency's website. "We first need to do a good job of exploring the moon and work out the rocket, transportation and detection technology that can then be used for a future exploration of Mars or Venus." In testimony in May to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which reports to the U.S. Congress, former NASA official Pace said what China learns in its space program can be applied elsewhere: improving the accuracy of ballistic missiles and quality controls for industry. China also offers space technology to developing countries to secure access to raw materials, said Pace, now director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University. There may also be economic reasons to explore the moon: It contains minerals and helium-3, a potential rich source of energy through nuclear fusion. "But that's way ahead," said Bond, the Jane's editor. "A lot of it would be prestige, the fact that every time we went out and looked at the moon in the night sky we would say the Chinese flag is on there."

China aims to compete in space

Vincent Sabathier, senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies Technology and Public Policy Program and the senior adviser to the SAFRAN group and consults internationally on aerospace and telecommunications, G. Ryan Faith, Adjunct Fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 5/17/11, “The Global Impact of the Chinese Space Program”, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8878/the-global-impact-of-the-chinese-space-program

Although China has relied on cooperation in the past to develop its space capabilities, it is increasingly willing to go it alone, proceeding slowly and steadily in a "long march" fashion. China might cooperate on space activities to accelerate a particular program or to gain prestige and recognition along the way, but ultimately its aim is to become a global competitor in space. Over time, Chinese policymakers have studied, analyzed and understood both the successes and failures of the U.S.-Soviet space race as well as the benefits China can derive from space. One such benefit, increased national pride, is more important in China than in any other current major spacefaring power -- with the possible exceptions of India and Russia -- because it helps unify the country during periods of great stress and transformation. In addition to showing considerable signs of determination and an enormous ambition, China has the resources needed to comprehensively develop its space assets in all areas. This will eventually allow China to compete across the board, around the globe and throughout space. China will probably catch up with European commercial space assets and policies before 2020. Its navigation system, Beidou, will be operational before its European counterpart, Galileo, and the Long March 5 family of launch vehicles, slated for use starting in 2014, will outperform Ariane 5 and its foreseen successors. China will subsequently land a "taikonaut" on the moon in the middle of the next decade, at roughly the same time that China's GDP is projected to exceed that of the U.S. -- a subtle soft-power means of highlighting China's growing influence.